Hard to describe just how good this day of racing was, you had to be there. Mathieu van der Poel took a win after an incredible 55 kilometer long solo ride in the brutal hills of Abruzzo just barely holding off a surging Tadej Pogacar who clawed back a 2:30 gap on his own, the stage blew up on the first lap with several attacks and the GC's final move was in the final lap where Pogacar's attack destroyed what was left of a group, extending his lead despite a brilliant ride by van Aert who finished third.
Positive: van der Poel's epic ride, Pogacar's epic attack, so much positive it wouldn't be fair to talk of others but I must. Felline finishing 4th, Formolo and Fabro (now 5th) having brilliant rides.
Negative: Quintana, Fuglsang, Carr and Thomas have dropped down the GC today and had a really hard day on the saddle. Alaphilippe was nowhere near the front unlike the expectations.
The Route
Before the final time-trial there is still another stage to go, one that should favour the sprinters. Although the profile looks quite hilly the scale interferes a bit. There are indeed some small climbs but they shouldn't affect the stage much as they come far from the finish, but the start us slightly downhill which will in no way favour a strong group getting away for the day.
Then the riders enter the final 11.3 kilometer long circuit in Lido di Fermo. In the start of that circuit - to be ridden for the final time with 8.2Km to go - is a small hilltop just off the side of the town which is 2Km long at 4%, it shouldn't suffocate the sprinters much but some can for sure make some suffer as they try to stay near the front, from there on there's a small descent back into the coast where the riders will then quickly head to the finish, having a finish that at far doesn't seem technical, but when looking closely we can observe a chicane with just 500 meters to go. There should be a race into that turn (which unfortunately looks quite dangerous) and then coming off it the riders will gain back the speed and sprint for the line, it will be quite a long final effort.
The Weather
Luckily for the riders it will be a slightly calmer day weather-wise, the wind will come from the north and loose some intensity throughout the day, there will be a combination of a cross and a tailwind before the final circuit, regarding that the final straight is in tailwind.
The Favourites
After today I doubt everyone will have their best legs to tackle the day, specially looking at those who were fighting for the stage and the GC they will be tremendously fatigued and will only look to recover tomorrow for the time-trial, as for the likes of Mathieu van der Poel although he still is a solid favourite he will for sure want to have an easier day to recover from this colossal effort and likely the responsability tomorrow will fall on his teammate Tim Merlier who will have a suiting stage for his attributes, and Wout van Aert is more likely to be in front but it will be also quite hard to take a win after today's effort (and well, his maximum efforts every single day).
The list of sprinters then is still quite big despite the abandon of Caleb Ewan, it will open things up a bit, in Lotto's case Jasper De Buyst will likely take charge of the train and try to go for another strong result, and also hope for a hard race, attacked on the final circuit and he will surely have a lot more sprinters who will like that. The stage is far from flat and the final circuit also has some quality uphill, not brutal but it will be felt, riders like Andrea Vendrame, Alex Aranburu, Andrea Pasqualon, Hugo Hofstetter (or perhaps Cimolai, depends on who Israel put their coins in) and Ivan Cortina can really benefit from a reduced group or at least from having the pure sprinters suffocated in those climbs. There are some names you'd associate here like Peter Sagan but he is still having some form issues, he can be up there in the sprint but a hard race wouldn't do him good, the other is Davide Ballerini who yes he definitely would like a hard race but he is above all the names previously mentioned and needs a special mention, having a strong leadout, great form and a very strong sprint.
In the field of the more pure sprinters a modest breakaway and slow pace over the climbs would be benificial. Although some of these names have in the past showed good climbing performances, right now in 2021 it's not easy to see them on the uphills, Fernando Gaviria and Elia Viviani have a decent chance to take a much needed win as a lot of the world's main sprinters are missing here and they pack a strong punch in the final meters, you've got the presence of youngster Max Kanter leading DSM's leadout, Luka Mezgec for BikeExchange, Matteo Malucelli for Androni, Niccolo Bonifazio for Direct Energie and Matteo Moschetti for Trek.
Despite all this you've still got to mention some attackers, as they day definitely isn't one that poses a big obstacle if a strong breakaway is formed. Breakaway or even a late attack can succeed, riders like Greg van Avermaet, Simon Pellaud, Fabio Felline, Jan Tratnik, Filippo Ganna, Stefan Kung, Aimé de Gendt, Mads Wurtz, Nico Denz, Nikias Arndt and Quinn Simmons are all valid contenders to take a good win this way. Some of these riders may be resting their legs for the time-trial, but a win is a win!
Prediction Time
⭐ Kanter, Vendrame, Hofstetter, Sagan, Cortina, Mezgec, Moschetti, Ganna, GV.Avermaet
Despite several sections that can make the stage rather tricky, if Deceuninck truly want to bring things down to a sprint they likely can, it's a stage that suits Davide Ballerini really well and I think it's their best card to take a win this week.
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