Tadej Pogacar took a brilliant win on Prati di Tivo, as Ineos set the pace early in the climb and attacked, they later payed the price having no-one contesting the win, the attacks came from early on but Wout van Aert paced the climb all the way to the end with riders constantly jumping him, Pogacar is the rider with the decisive attack, shortly after Simon Yates too jumped and they finished isolated from the rest of the group, with Sergio Higuita finishing third.
Positive: Pogacar did what he had to do, attacked the race and jumped onto the lead of the race. Higuita, Carr and Fabro all did a really good climb, aswell as van Aert who keeps himself on the fight for the overall win.
Negative: Ineos had a bad day, they looked good in the first half of the climb but later cracked, with Sivakov likely suffering from effects of yesterday's crash (possibly not only him). Trek didn't have good strategy, also failed to perform, Konrad, Pozzovivo, Bilbao were distant from the front surprisingly.
The Route
A race of two halves. The first is pan-flat by the Adriatic coast and the second... the second barely has a flat meter, it's a 23.8 kilometer long circuit made up of some short climbs around the little town of Castelfidardo which will receive the finish of what is a dangerous raiding stage, with 205.8 kilometers in distance.
In terms of the final lap we find the main obstacle (which, like every climb, will be ridden 4 times) in the short sharp categorized ascent of Castelfidardo which finishes with 17.5Km to go, it's 1.6Km long at 9.7% with some brutal ramps in it's beginning. A sharp descent follows, then there's a couple of bumps on the way back up to the town, the final ascent is 3Km long at 3.6% but it's fairly inconstant, with several steeper ramps and some flat sections. The final kilometer has a small descent before a grinding drag to the line.
The Weather
The wind will be incredibly strong again, not from the start but aproaching Castelfidardo the wind will blow really strong from the West. In the final circuit it will continuously change, I believe there will be some crosswind in the main ascent and also a headwind in the final ascent to the line.
The Favourites
It smells like a crazy stage. The route alone is built for chaos, for offensive racing, for raiding, just as we see plenty of times in this race with it's classics short steep climbs making big differences. Tomorrow will be no exception and with the wind will make it even harder. Attacks will come specially seeing how hard some went today, and how some teams must be quite disapointed with their result.
I would expect both Ineos and Trek to go wild tomorrow because firstly Ineos have a very strong team, riders like Ganna and Kwiatkowski have massive engines and the latter will love such a hilly stage, but also their GC riders (mainly Egan Bernal and Geraint Thomas) have got some freedom and no reason not to attack the race from far, likely blowing up the race, as for Trek both Nibali and Ciccone surely hoped for a better performance today, Ciccone specially will like the stage, the attacks that I expect from these two teams will likely be responded by some more riders and everything will kick off maybe even from the first lap on. But what really matters here is the fight for the overall and it will be big, after today's impressive win Tadej Pogacar will be happy with the gap he has over his fellow climbers but the presence of Wout van Aert is surely something he won't be too happy with, I don't think he'll want to go on a crazy attack (specially because his team isn't quite in the form he would want) but he will want to attack Wout van Aert for sure, as for the Belgian he can definitely climb very well that isn't put to question, he's also got the best sprint out of the GC riders so he is the man to attack the most tomorrow (although for some he may be a perfect ally). Behind them it's just such a messy situation, I see no-one who won't be wanting to make a move, EF has got two climbers that do these hilly stages superbly in Sergio Higuita and Simon Carr, both well placed so I guess they'll want an easy race, Matteo Fabro is also sitting in the Top10 which in this field is a brilliant result but honestly I don't think he will have a saying on wether the race is agressive or not.
You've got Landa in 4th, Quintana in 5th and Fuglsang in 7th, all of which in decent places in the GC but with a time-trial ahead, they all look in good form and Fuglsang specially will like this type of stage, the others aren't as sharp but are looking quite good, Almeida 6th isn't a sharp rider but he will also be eyeing his opportunities.
But then you've got more, you've got some riders who can easily win the stage but also turn the race on it's head, and make for very dangerous alliances. Simon Yates for a start has been looking in terrific form, he had cramps after his attack on the other mountain stage but he's looking sharp and will love the climbs for tomorrow, you have the world champion Julian Alaphilippe who will be eyeing another big strike on his rivals for the classics and you've got Mathieu van der Poel which needs no introduction really, it's not a stage perfectly suited for him but I think he will be just as strong as everyone else. Riders like Tim Wellens, Rudy Molard, Marc Soler, Domenico Pozzovivo, Dario Cataldo, Valentin Madouas, Greg van Avermaet, Simon Clarke, Quinn Simmons can also have a saying tomorrow, there is the chance of it being an open day.
That is... if the race doesn't get split already before the final circuit!
Prediction Time
⭐ Kwiatkowski, Bernal, Ciccone, Fuglsang, Landa, Quintana, Almeida, Wellens, Simmons
I think the route is perfect for him and he has got the form. Julian Alaphilippe will have freedom and he will surely be on the attack tomorrow, with a beastful accelaration and an equally strong sprint, I expect the Frenchman to win tomorrow.
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