A dangerous day, the echelons were made early on but kept under control in the peloton, the breakaway threatened to take a stage for much of the day but in the end it was a bunch sprint and was won by Mathieu van der Poel, after Deceuninck did a strategical move in the final kilometer Wout van Aert brough it back, but was beaten in a sprint by the Dutch. Davide Ballerini finished third in a finish that saw a mass crash take some seconds out of some GC candidates.
Positive: van der Poel taking vengeance, van Aert taking even more bonus seconds, Higuita and De Buyst with strong finishes.
Negative: Bernal loosing 18 seconds, Thomas 19, Sivakov 20, Yates 29, Ciccone 38, Zakarin 42. All of which because of a crash just outside of the 3Km mark, a huge blow for Ineos' GC expectations.
The Route
Prati di Tivo is back! This is the queen stage of the race, it's not a flat affair with a slight ascent early in the day that may allow a strong break to go off the front. The uncategorized climb of the Sella di Corso that summits with 74Km to go and is 14.6Km long at 3.5%, but the categorized warm-up to the final climb is the Passo Cappanelle which has it's finish with 41.4Km to go, it's another long climb with 14 kilometers in distance but again shallow gradients, averaging 4.4% in gradient.
It was ridden back in 2012 and 2013 and the wins were obtained by none other than Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Froome. Big names, we can expect the same, it's a hard climb and one where big differences can be made. 14.4Km long at 7.2%, it's a constant climb but it does features some rough sections, it's full of switchbacks throughout the climb except for the final kilometers which are relatively straightforward and steep all the way to the line.
The Weather
There will be very strong wind gusts but I wouldn't expect it to have a big effect on the stage as like today the riders will probably be hidden, it'll come from southwest which could eventually see some cross and tailwind throughout the stage and a slight headwind in the final ascent.
The Favourites
The fight should be proper interesting. We have got an incredible set of climbers and they all come in with a mission of not only fighting between themselves but also fighting to dislodge those who have gained important bonus seconds already.
Going on the attack, there are two main climbers who came here to get a GC win and nothing less. First is Tadej Pogacar, has raced conservatively so far, as looked very sharp hunting for bonifications and comes in after a brilliant win in the UAE Tour, he'll have a strong team supporting him but it's Ineos who've got the true strenght in numbers. Unfortunately for the British team their 3 leaders have lost time today in the crash and they will enter the queen stage with important disadvantage. They should be revolving around Egan Bernal who has looked back to his best lately, the team though has very strong depth but mainly Pavel Sivakov and Geraint Thomas who are both looking quite good in terms of form, the question is how they will attack this stage seeing only the final climb is hard enough to split the race.
These two teams should control the second half of the stage as they have the men and the responsability to attack the race, there are plenty more riders that will likely try to take advantage of that, firstly Nairo Quintana who is also seemingly recovered from nagging injuries and has looked quite sharp lately, he can very well show his best legs like he did last season, there's Mikel Landa who has also been looking really good on the climbs and really has no other option for a good GC then to have as hard of a race as possible (his teammate Pello Bilbao will likely be sitting the wheels). You've got then the local Giulio Ciccone supported by past winner on this climb Vincenzo Nibali who will be leading Trek tomorrow, the likes of Sergio Higuita, Jakob Fuglsang and Romain Bardet who will be looking for a strong result tomorrow in order to find a place within the Top10. Simon Yates is a joker, he looked brilliant yesterday until... he faded, and today he was involved in the crash, I'm not sure what to expect from him, can win or finish 30th and neither would surprise me.
Then you've got riders who will race more conservatively. The leader Wout van Aert is a big question, it's not a question wether he can climb, but how well he will. He got 20 seconds in bonus over the last 3 days and that's the lead he's taking tomorrow against most of the big climbers, he's got a little buffer and will be pacing in the climb, he will be attacked so he'll have to find some alliances to keep himself within reach of a strong overall result, perhaps Deceuninck may even be his biggest allie as Julian Alaphilippe will be well within the same fight, not a pure climber but has some bonus time on his pocket and will love the hilly stage on the next day, but also because João Almeida is a brilliant engine who usually rides the mountains in a constant pace all the way and can be a great wheel for van Aert if the circumstances are right. There's also the question over what Mathieu van der Poel can do, unfortunately I can't accurately say, but he should probably have a good dig and test himself.
You've got some more outsiders like Patrick Konrad, Domenico Pozzovivo, Marc Soler, Ilnur Zakarin, Thibaut Pinot who can possibly gathet themselves and fight for a strong result, some have GC ambitions that will motivate them.
Prediction Time
⭐ Sivakov, Thomas, Ciccone, Higuita, S.Yates, Almeida, WV.Aert
I'm going with Nairo Quintana to win tomorrow, Ineos and UAE will have to attack the race but the Arkea man is in great form and has a very good climb for his abilities, he has the power but also he won't be as marked as the other two.
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