Stage 2 promised and it delivered even more, the stage had the expected finish but the road up to it was quite different than expected, with a flurry of attacks in the penultimate climb by the GC contenders making for a very dangerous group out in front with Yates, Sivakov, Landa and Almeida, the latter was on the brink of a win until the UAE (and finally Ineos) led peloton brought him back and Julian Alaphilippe took an amazing win on the sprint beating Mathieu van der Poel and the leader Wout van Aert.
Positive: Some riders showed good form and legs, none of the climbers capitalized something meaningful today but legs were tested, Alaphilippe and Deceuninck played it perfectly.
Negative: Crash in the final kilometer derailed the race for some GC contenders including Yates who lost 1:22, Zakarin and Soler were also affected and lost time, Pinot and Caruso proved not to have the legs to fight for the GC.
The Route
Another very tricky finale. Stage 3 is on paper another for the sprinters but it has some features that will make it hard to see a battle between pure sprinters. For a starters the stage is far from easy with a couple of climbs that can see a strong group get away, and also deal some early damage to the fast men. Secondly there's the Poggio Della Croce summiting with 82Km to go which is 4.4Km at 7.5%, and can easily deal some more damage with a strong pace, and then the finish itself is far from easy, let's take a look at it...
The finish has a slight uphill tilt in the final kilometers and then it gets technical towards the end. The finish in Gualdo Tadino has a tight switchback in the flamme rouge and then it has some rather narrow roads into the finish, going over a bridge in a long left-hander in the final couple hundred meters into a slightly uphill finish.
The Weather
ECHELONS! Very strong wind tomorrow, constantly above the 25Km/h mark and with gusts up to 70Km/h. The day will have mostly cross and cross-tailwind, it has danger written all over despite the route not being overly exposed. The finish is quite technical, before it there will be crosswinds, in town it'll be more hiden, if it is felt it should be a crosswind in the finishing straight.
The Favourites
There are some different scenarios to consider, let's imagine that the wind will have little effect on the stage and it would finish in a bunch sprint, that would be quite dangerous as the finish is somewhat technical and windy. The likes of Caleb Ewan or Fernando Gaviria would be those most benefited with this as they seemed to have the fastest edge between the sprinters yesterday, however seeing how ridiculously strong and complete Wout van Aert is it's hard to ignore his favouritism whichever scenario may happen. The stage also has some climbing which definitely won't help the likes of the pure sprinters, like the duo previously mentioned and also for the likes of riders like Matteo Moschetti, Tim Merlier, Matteo Malucelli, Manuel Belletti, Thomas Boudat, Elia Viviani, Max Kanter, Niccolo Bonifazio who would benefit from a more calm non-attacked stage and a normal bunch finish.
That may not however be the case, there are some sprinters (or men who can sprint) who can definitely do a stage like this very well, the final straight also has a slight uphill tilt, seeing how well Mathieu van der Poel rides in the crosswinds he's definitely a threat and he may want to target tomorrow's stage, same thing could be said about Deceuninck who've got today's winner Alaphilippe who can honestly also contest a finish like this, the team may rely more on Davide Ballerini but I think above all they will appreciate and perhaps attack the race in the wind.
The array of secondary sprinters, many of which have good climbing legs and will want the pace to be high tomorrow (and make the splits too if they can), is also big. I could mentioned Peter Sagan above but he is still feeling the effects of his ilness and doesn't seem to have his good form yet, Andrea Vendrame and possibly Greg van Avermaet for AG2R , Luka Mezgec of BikeExchange, Ivan Cortina of Movistar, Israel with Davide Cimolai and mainly Hugo Hofstetter, Intermarche's Andrea Pasqualon and Astana's Alex Aranburu who finished a strong 5th today are very good examples of riders looking to get in the mix and possibly surprise.
Prediction Time
⭐ Gaviria, E.Viviani, Sagan, Merlier, Vendrame, Cortina
I'm going with Mathieu van der Poel to take vengeance on his duo of main rivals and get the win tomorrow, in a wind-blown stage where he'll make the big splits and then outsprint the rest of the group in that final stretch.
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