We have been having quite some exciting action in Italy and it won't stop here. Although we're having already Paris-Nice on the road this week we'll get an extra dose of top racing with the Tirreno-Adriatico, a race which has brought in a luxury set of climbers and a whole array of stars right behind them!
The Route
The race starts with a stage that should favour the sprinters unlike most years, right by the Tirreno sea in Lido di Camaiore.
Stage 2 is a hilly one, a classic one from this race combining big miles and rolling roads, in a stage suited for many different types of riders.
Stage 3 will be another day for the sprinters, albeit with a rough first half which can seriously help the chances of a successful breakaway.
Stage 4, and this year's queen stage in the Appenines, is one that will have it's summit back in Prati di Tivo. With the incredible lineup we've got, this will be a very exciting stage.
But as usual in this race aswell, we've got a hilly stage perfect for raids, with a lot of short but steep climbs, this year around the town of Castelfidardo which can and should also play a big role in the GC.
Stage 6 will be another opportunity for the sprinters, but like every other sprint stage in the race this year, it is far from pan-flat and will be a challenge.
The traditional final time-trial, 11Km in distance which can make important differences at the end of the week.
Weather for the Week
What the current forecast says is that the first half of the stage should be quite fine with sunny warm weather but on the other side of the Appenines, from Sunday (stage 5) on it could turn rainy and trecherous.
GC Contenders
We have got a LUXURIOUS startlist here in Italy as I have mentioned and that applies to many types of riders, but most importantly it's the climbers really. We have got quality and quantity, we've seen two climbers excel brilliantly in Strade Bianche this weekend and I dare to say they are the two main favourites to win this race, the two past Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar who's coming in with his trio of strong domestiques, and on the other side is Egan Bernal who seems to be at the moment past his back issues, he's coming in with great form but above all a monstruous team including Ganna/Kwiatkowski who shouldn't be targeting the overall, but with backups in Pavel Sivakov, Geraint Thomas and Daniel Martinez who can themselves have GC ambitions even in a helping role.
To challenge them? Well where to start... Defending champion Simon Yates is lining up with the number 1 looking to get that title once again, he comes as a sole leader and we find the same in some other teams like Astana who are coming in with Jakob Fuglsang who's having a little slower start to the season, Patrick Konrad coming in with Bora, Ilnur Zakarin who's back at his old Gazprom team, Marc Soler leading Movistar, Romain Bardet doing the same for DSM trying to get back to his strong GC results in a suiting race, we've got Nairo Quintana who despite having some meaningful surgeries just a few months ago came back to racing with great legs and is looking very sharp to try and take the race he won back in 2017 and 2015,.
But the depth is far from over, because then you've got teams who have several cards to play. Deceuninck for a starter, João Almeida and Julian Alaphilippe are two very different riders but they can compliment each other well, both have a very strong time-trial and are in great form, you've got Bahrain coming in with Mikel Landa likely as the leader but with big and strong options in Pello Bilbao and also Damiano Caruso, there's Groupama who are coming in with Thibaut Pinot, Valentin Madouas and Rudy Molard, uncertain who will be leading the team it's on the road that it will be decided surely, you've got one of the men of the moment Michael Woods who has a good stage for him, Dan Martin may also bring another good option for Israel, there's the Italian duo of Trek, Giulio Ciccone will likely lead as he is a local to the Appenines and he's got Vincenzo Nibali as an experienced helper/co-leader, Nibali's good friend Domenico Pozzovivo will also be looking for a comeback, EF have Sergio Higuita and Simon Carr and Jumbo have Tobias Foss, and I'd risk to say Wout van Aert himself may have a dig in the GC.
The Sprinters
Truth is some riders I've mentioned like Wout van Aert or Julian Alaphilippe have good chances of having a sprint win in this race, they can do pretty much everything, their main rival in the classics Mathieu van der Poel is also coming in and he's got some well suited stages for him, although in the flat sprints Tim Merlier should be the man that'll get his chance. In those Caleb Ewan will be the man to beat surely, he's got a strong leadout and will take advantage of the lack of pure sprinters on the start line who've opted to ride Paris-Nice, competition is strong though and starting with Davide Ballerini (possibly Alvaro Hodeg too) who is in great form and will be eyeing more wins to his already successful season, you've got Fernando Gaviria who will be UAE's fast man, in the field of the pure sprinters you've got some riders like Elia Viviani, Matteo Moschetti, Niccolo Bonifazio, Max Kanter, Manuel Belletti and Mattia Malucelli who will be eyeing some good results, specially as several represent PCT teams.
In the field of the sprinters who can climb quite well, who usually like Tirreno are for a starters Peter Sagan who will finally begin his season after a bout of covid infection, Sonny Colbrelli coming in with Bahrain, Alex Aranburu with Astana, Andrea Pasqualon leading in Intermarche, both Davide Cimolai and Hugo Hofstetter for Israel and the duo of AG2R Andrea Vendrame and the Olympic champion Greg van Avermaet.
*Some teams have not yet confirmed their lineup but the provisional startlist has been posted. If there are changes the post will be updated accordingly.
Prediction Time
⭐ Sivakov, Thomas, S.Yates, Fuglsang, Landa, Bilbao, Pinot, Woods, Ciccone, Nibali, Higuita, WV.Aert
Going with Tadej Pogacar to take the overall, I think he's very balanced with Bernal and we may not see them take time on each other during the road stages, bonifications and the time-trial may be the deciding factor and Pogacar has a little edge.
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