Strade Bianche is already tomorrow, it is without a single doubt one of the most exciting races of the season and also one of the most unique as the peloton heads to the incredible hills of Tuscany for a race in it's infamous white gravel roads. It's a race that suits the puncheurs and the classics riders, where technique and luck always plays a big roll aswell.
The Route
The big route we all know. Well maybe big isn't the right word, after all of the big classics this is one of the shortest with a "mere" 184 Kilometers in lenght, but damn if these aren't some of the most exciting of the whole year!
There are 61.9Km of gravel divided into 11 sectors, as short as 800 meters long and as big as 11.9Km in lenght, and they aren't concentrated in any specific area of the route but rather spread evenly throughout the race, it's one of attrition, where tactics, positioning and let's admit, a tad bit of luck all have to be ticked off the box. The route starts off in some rolling roads and just a bit before the halfway point of the race the first major challenge comes.
This is the Lucignano d'Asso sector, the 5th and biggest of the race and finishes with 96Km to go, it's a fairly hard sector that has a lot of room for crashes, punctures, splits, etc... Every sector (and well every Kilometer) is a chance for something to go wrong, and like in the cobbles it's a matter of having the least possible energy spent unnecessary, this is where the real race starts!
Monte Sante Marie aka Settore Cancellara is perhaps the most iconic sector, the ramps get very very steep right at the start that go up to 18%, and the funny thing with these sectors is that not only do they include hard gradients, but sketchy and technical descents which just make it a constant excitement. This sector is the 8th and the 2nd biggest and is many times very crucial into the race's outcome, it finishes with around 43 Kilometers to go.
Colle Pinzuto finishes with 17Km to go and is one of the last pieces of brutal roads where gaps can be made out of power and not opportunity, it's one that doesn't include descents so it's quite a brute.
Le Tolfe is the final sector of the race, it summits with 11Km to go and is a U shaped sector, you enter it full speed in a descent and then have a nasty ramp in the gravel, the last white road of the race and for sure at this race we can have the rider, or the group of riders who will fight for the win.
If a group, it will all be decided in the narrow streets of Siena, Via Santa Caterina is one of the most iconic places in cycling and you're sure to get some awesome images even with the current situation.
The Weather
Forecast has it that it'll rain a bit tonight. Not heavy rain, seems like just a bit of a drizzle, may even help the gravel roads be a bit smoother and less technical, but it can also cause the exact opposite on other sectors that don't drain as well. It doesn't seem like during the race it will rain, however there will be a strong wind from the northeast with around a constant 20Km/h which means the whole return to Siena will have cross/tailwinds, favourable for long-distance attacks and solo moves.
The Classics Specialists
No doubt there are some men to beat and those are for sure the men we see in the cobbled classics and in the Ardennes. The explosive racing, the good tactics, the pure power and capacity to sprint are all vital in one-day races and Strade Bianche is no exception. There's a trident of riders that come in with the favouritism, firstly being Mathieu van der Poel, coming in after just 3 days of racing this season where he was the headliner in all of them. Although he has been racing in favour of his teammates, tomorrow he'll be the undisputed leader, he had a lot of bad luck last year but he comes back with the same ambitions of winning the race and comes with solid support, just like Wout van Aert, starting his season tomorrow but reportedly in good form. And truth be told, van Aert is one of the most consistent and reliable riders in the peloton, I believe he'll come in sharp, technique he has and he also comes as the defending champion. Against them the other big favourite is Julian Alaphilippe who's got some racing under his belt already this season, he comes in with great form and a lot of experience but perhaps his biggest weapon is his team, riders like Zdenek Stybar a former winner in good form will be very dangerous, João Almeida and Kasper Asgreen are big engines and complete wildcards, Davide Ballerini I'm not sure what to expect, this isn't the best of races for him but he is in terrific form and has a scary sprint, Devenyns and Serry both have here a race that's very well suited aswell. Literally their whole team can attack the race, their best card really is to play it from as soon as possible, put the other leaders under pressure, don't let them attack first.
But this is just a tiny section of the contenders. Looking at other classics riders there are so many, starting off by Ineos they come with Tom Pidcock, debuting on these roads, and Michal Kwiatkowski as a past winner on two occasions. They've got great form going on (despite Kwiatkowski crashing this week), they have experience on technical sketchy roads and they have a brilliant duo of climbers in Egan Bernal and Pavel Sivakov who can be of tremendous help or even go for their own chances. You've got some men in good form that will be targeting the cobbles classics like Greg van Avermaet rolling in, also Alberto Bettiol and Ivan Cortina who will be looking for a good result (alongside the ever present Alejandro Valverde).
As for those that are more properly puncheurs, that are here because they are (mostly) very powerful riders for short climbs, you've got the likes of Matej Mohoric (the exception) who says he's targeting this weekend specifically to take big results, Tim Wellens who's also no unknown to these roads, the dangerous trio of Qhubeka puncheurs of Michael Gogl specially, but also Simon Clarke and Robert Power, Intermarche's Loic Vliegen and Arkea's Diego Rosa.
Can the climbers overcome the big favourites?
But there's another class of riders coming in very heavy. Having already mentioned some big names like Egan Bernal, the most recent Tour de France winner is coming in aswell with good form and also a lot of experience in rough roads, Tadej Pogacar is coming in co-leading the UAE team alongside Davide Formolo, Astana have Jakob Fuglsang coming as leader as he prepares to try and take the win he's fought so hard for, and the other climber coming in with experience and a podium is Romain Bardet, who'll be leading his new DSM squad and has a trio of domestiques experienced in CX/MTB in Chris Hamilton, Joris Nieuwenhuis and Thymen Arensman.
And then you've got some men on form, Trek more specifically, this isn't the most suited classic for Bauke Mollema who's already taken a couple wins this season, he has Gianluca Brambilla who's been on the podium and also Quinn Simmons who's in good form and despite his young age, he's a specialist in these kind of roads. Groupama bring in a very diverse team with two climbers on form in Valentin Madouas and Rudy Molard, Kevin Geniets who's the puncheur and currently on good form, and also Stefan Kung who's setting up for his cobbled classics season, there is a similar lineup in Mitchelton with Simon Yates coming in as a possible leader, but Nick Schultz and Rob Stannard are riders who can really thrive in an undercover role in a race like this and sneak into the Top10. Finally, will also mention Bora's Emanuel Buchmann, Pattrick Konrad and MTB pro Ben Zwiehoff who can be a bit of a wildcard for tomorrow.
Prediction Time
⭐ Almeida, Bernal, GV.Avermaet, Bettiol, Cortina, Wellens, Gogl, Formolo, Fuglsang, Mollema, Simmons, Madouas
I know I know, "he hasn't raced yet why do you think he'll already win?". Let's go over some facts, he's raced Strade 3 times and he's finished on the podium on all of them, and in all occasions it was just his 2nd day of racing in the season. So this isn't new for him, secondly it's rare to see someone so consistent and who rarely crashes, third he's got the experience in these roads, technique and also knowledge on how to setup the bike. All that, adding to his adaptation to every scenario is amazing, between him and the other two big favourites it's a Russian Roulette but he's the one who offers more guarrantee.
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