The wait is over...
Well, was over last week in theory in Sibiu, but the return of top level cycling is back and damn it feels good! For some months I was uncertain wether this preview would be published, with it an interview ended up not being posted because of it, but every race we get this season we should be thankful for. So let's get into the thick of it!
Route
The big route we all know. Well maybe big isn't the right word, after all of the big classics this is one of the shortest with a "mere" 184 Kilometers in lenght, but damn if these aren't some of the most exciting of the whole year!
There are 61.9Km of gravel divided into 11 sectors, as short as 800 meters long and as big as 11.9Km in lenght, and they aren't concentrated in any specific area of the route but rather spread evenly throughout the race, it's one of attrition, where tactics, positioning and let's admit, a tad bit of luck all have to be ticked off the box. The route starts off in some rolling roads and just a bit before the halfway point of the race the first major challenge comes.
This is the Lucignano d'Asso sector, the 5th and biggest of the race and finishes with 96Km to go, it's a fairly hard sector that has a lot of room for crashes, punctures, splits, etc... Every sector (and well every Kilometer) is a chance for something to go wrong, and like in the cobbles it's a matter of having the least possible energy spent unnecessary, this is where the real race starts!
Monte Sante Marie aka Settore Cancellara is perhaps the most iconic sector, the ramps get very very steep right at the start that go up to 18%, and the funny thing with these sectors is that not only do they include hard gradients, but sketchy and technical descents which just make it a constant excitement. This sector is the 8th and the 2nd biggest and is many times very crucial into the race's outcome, it finishes with around 43 Kilometers to go.
Colle Pinzuto finishes with 17Km to go and is one of the last pieces of brutal roads where gaps can be made out of power and not opportunity, it's one that doesn't include descents so it's one that's quite hard.
Le Tolfe is the final sector of the race, it summits with 11Km to go and is a U shaped sector, you enter it full speed in a descent and then have a nasty ramp in the gravel, the last white road of the race and for sure at this race we can have the rider, or the group of riders who will fight for the win.
If a group, it will all be decided in the narrow streets of Siena, Via Santa Caterina is one of the most iconic places in cycling and you're sure to get some awesome images even with the current situation.
The Weather
Freakish! I reckon that the temperatures are gonna be as high as 37ºC according to my source, but also some cloudy skies with storms nearby. Nonetheless heat and lots and lots of dust is the expectation, maybe wearing a mask would be of benefit during the race...
Those who fare well with the heat can have a very good day to snatch a good result.
Are the puncheurs or cobbled classics specialists the ones to beat?
This is a race so suited for the classics specialists, the short sharp efforts, the rolling roads, the technical aspect of the race and the need for tactical sharpness is exactly what these riders are trained to do. What does that mean to me? Look at the Flemish! Oli Naesen leading AG2R with the number one looks good and the rider who's rumoured to be his teammate next season Greg van Avermaet (with Geschke and De Marchi as support) is another big name mentioned, now I don't know if he loves the heat but I've heard it around, so keep him in mind.
Then, the CX revolution, in fact Mathieu van der Poel is rated widely as the main favourite (even though he's debuting) which isn't logic thinking, but it's perfectly justifiable knowing his quality, his technique and super explosive characteristics is a very good combo for such race, he isn't though the best of riders in the heat, so I'd keep my wallet shut if I was thinking on betting on him. The other, Wout van Aert, he's finished 3rd in his debut so we know it's possible, and the year after he's repeated that podium so... 3 for 3? I think his chances are good, there's few riders as complete as him.
Phillipe Gilbert is a past winner of this race and he would love to take it back, he isn't getting any younger and to be honest he doesn't need this win but it would be another very nice addition to his massive palmares, and to him I would add two classics specialists in Michael Valgren leading Team NTT and also Stefan Kung who'll be leading the Groupama squad.
Team depth = Success?
Now this point is undeniable, now will it be decisive? First of all, Deceuninck the usual elephant in the room... You just can't get around them, they have 2 of the present 5 winners in the ultra-explosive defending champion Julian Alaphillipe, who's said to be preparing for later in the season and Zdenek Stybar who still looks as sharp as when we won back in 2015. In fact in 5 participations his worst was a 7th place which proves his worth, and then you have to count in Bob Jungels and Kasper Asgreen in a mega thermonuclear team where realistically these 4 riders can win, and Ballerini/Serry themselves are quite strong domestiques. Keeping up with the Specialized bikes, (although unconfirmed at time of writing) the Bora team which have beasted this return to the season bring in Peter Sagan and Max Schachmann, a terrifying duo that can set the race on fire and they are sure to be big players this Saturday.
Then you have several teams with mega depth like Astana coming in with Jakob Fuglsang, Alexey Lutsenko and the Izagirre brothers, you just can't imagine them not being in the fight for the win aswell, specially if the Dane has the legs he's shown last year, you have Sunweb who's bringing another scary classics squad with Soren Kragh Andersen, Tiesj Benoot and Marc Hirschi on the helm, there's Bahrain with Dylan Teuns, Ivan Cortina and Matej Mohoric, and there's also EF with Alberto Bettiol and Simon Clarke, adding to them Michael Woods who's seemed to recovered from his nasty injury in Paris Nice... You see where I'm going with this? There is SO much quality it's hard to imagine what can happen.
And then you have the climbers, Trek is having a very bright Italian leadership in Vincenzo Nibali and Giullio Ciccone, not the explosive kind of riders that usually rule this race but you never know do you, also form is almost an unknown at this time of year (man it feels weird to say this in August). There's UAE, well don't take the fact that I'm mentioning this so late as a lack of quality, because it is indeed not! Tadej Pogacar the youngster can do some amazing things and I am thoroughly excited to see what he's capable, and he's got the support of Italian classics specialists Diego Ulissi and Davide Formolo, and Portuguese puncheur Rui Costa. Another team with so much depth that's it's hard to see what they can do, early attacks, chasing back on attacks, this is another team that can do it all!
Oh also, Moscon and Kwiat leading Ineos ;)
Outsiders (including some CXers!)
With so much quality I needed to have another category, simply because these riders are so talented but with such a strong field and depth on the field it could be hard for them to achieve a result. Arkea is being lead by Diego Rosa who's previously finished in the Top5, Israel is having Krists Neilands, Mitchelton has Luke Durbridge, and personally I'm also excited to see how Edoardo Affini does in the gravel. And of course I would watch out for two riders racing for the Circus squad, Quinten Hermans and Corne van Kessel.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐ van der Poel, Alaphillipe, WV.Aert, SK.Andersen
⭐⭐ Schachmann, Stybar, Fuglsang, Lutsenko, Benoot, GV.Avermaet, Ulissi, Bettiol
⭐ Formolo, Pogacar, Gilbert, Asgreen, Teuns, S.Clarke, Naesen, Hermans, Sagan, Kwiatkowski, Mollema
When having so many riders how can you choose... I got a lot with the saying "first thought best thought", and Diego Ulissi is the first rider that came to mind, he usually starts his season off strong and UAE has one hell of a team, individually speaking aswell he has a very strong punch in these steep climbs and is racing in his home country, he had a massive year in 2019 and started off 2020 in style, let's see if he keeps it!
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
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