Holy Sunday in Belgium! The cobbled classics campaign ends tomorrow in Flandres where a big clash between the Cyclocross riders and Deceuninck is expected, in the big climax of the spring (in my fair opinion, of course)!
The Route
254 kilometers on the menu. It's a monument and the lenght is always massive, it's a true ride through Flandres covering it's most reputated bergs. No surprises, no big changes, but when you've got a route like this why change! 18 cobbled sectors and 18 climbs, most features have both, the first 85 kilometers are essentially pan-flat from Antwerp into the holy roads.
In the profile above you can see all of the climbs, distance, gradients, etc. So there's no new info I can give you, but let's take a look at the most important sectors of the race.
168.5 Km to go - Lippenhovestraat
165.5 - Paddestraat
152 - Katteberg
149.5 - Holloweg
Early on you've got these 4 that'll open the legs up a bit, probably see Sep puncture to get it out of the way, and get everyone ready for the true race to begin with the first ride over the Oude Kwaremont.
133 - Oude Kwaremont
122.5 - Kortekeer
114.5 - Eikenberg
111.5 - Wolvenberg
109 - Holloweg + Karel Martelstraat
106.5 - Jagerij
101.5 - Molenberg
97.5 - Marlboroughstraat
93.5 - Berendries
88.5 - Valkenberg
The race begins it's most important phase with just over 130 kilometers to go and in the space of 45kms there are several cobbled sectors and climbs, very condensed and in trecherous roads. At this point atacks will come, the strategical moves will also begin as the teams look to get some riders in front to pressure their rivals. The big guns will be trying to spend as less as possible as the decisive period is still ahead, but they can't wander around in the back at any time. After these climbs there is some time to recollect, calm down and reavaluate the race.
76 - Berg ten Houte
70.5 - Kanarieberg
54.5 - Oude Kwaremont
51 - Paterberg
The second ascent to Oude Kwaremont followed by the Paterberg will break the race up. Maybe the winning moves won't come here, but the splits that'll come from it may be the decisive factor. From here on out most leaders will be on their own, and with 200 kilometers in the legs, fatigue can start kicking at any moment.
44.5 - Koppenberg
A brute, no way around it. The climb will suffocate many, the gradients at it's summit are perfect for a stinging attack after the brutal ramps, and the attacks after the top may be just as dangerous.
39 - Steenbeekdries
36.5 - Taaienberg
After Steenbeekdries where Alaphilippe made the decisive attack last year comes the Taaienberg. This is where Deceuninck won E3, we won't see a group as big going into it this time, but it's another ideal climb to attack over the top, specially as some riders will be trying to conserve their legs for the final two climbs.
28 - Oude Kruisberg
26.5 - Hotond
16.5 - Oude Kwaremont
Final time up it. 20 minutes of racing left, 6 hours in the legs. Everything will hurt.
13 - Paterberg
The final climb of the day. If it's a small group in front this is the final chance for those who don't have a strong sprint to dislodge rivals by power. The climb is nasty, brutally steep in it's latter part and has in the past seen winning contenders blow up like a baloon.
The road directly after the Paterberg is winding and downhill, a 10 meter gap at the summit may mean 50 meters at the bottom. Although timegap may be the same, I can imagine it to be very demoralizing for a dropped rider, specially one who may have to go solo until the finish. The final kilometers are the ones used every year into Oudenaarde, straight pan-flat road, if there is a chase it can bring back some men, if you're solo it'll hurt like hell. It's not an ideal road for attacks but after such a race they can succeed if done right.
The Weather
Very mild temperatures and a slight breeze from the west. Shouldn't have much effect on the race the weater.
Van Aert and van der Poel need each other
Last year Alaphilippe made the decisive move of the race, which was responded by the duo which then went on alone as the Frenchman hit a motorbike, taking first and second and never skipping turns. At their best they have been beaten this season by Deceuninck, however on the top spots of favouritism for tomorrow we've got Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert. Although their teams are quite, regularly other teams are able to keep more men in the decisive moves, they need to ally to make sure they bring the race home for one of them. They both know each other perfectly and both believe they can beat the other in a sprint, they are two of the strongest classics riders out there and the strongest sprinters between the specialists, so forming an alliance is quite important for them because they're the riders who will be marked no matter what and also attacked.
How do Deceuninck win this?
If there's a team that knows how to race - and win - here it's Deceuninck. They haven't had the best of classics campaign but in E3 they displayed how well they can race, combining tactics, depth and individual quality to finish 1st-2nd-5th between a field including all of the big classics riders they'll face tomorrow. And they didn't have Julian Alaphilippe who in theory is the "leader", surely he will be named leader exactly so that his moves are marked closely but the remainder of the team has some more freedom. Unfortunately for them Zdenek Stybar opted not to race due to recent medical issues, he was in brilliant form and would've been an important piece, however that doesn't mean the team is fragile. We've seen how strong Kasper Asgreen has been and he'll be a threat for every solo move, together with Alaphilippe they should be the most agressive riders. They have a stacked team, but the other two men that must be taken into attention are Yves Lampaert and Florian Sénéchal, the first is more dangerous for solo moves but the Frenchman also packs a mean sprint which can mean he'll be the rider who will try to follow the wheels instead of attacking.
So how do they win this? They have to be patient, not to attack too early to burn down their team. This is my opinion of course, I think they should take the risk and keep their 4 riders riding the wheels until the first ride over the Paterberg. Make sure they are all there in a reduced group, and only then start making moves, do not have Alaphilippe attack on the uphill at the time as it'll suffocate the other 3, instead swarm the front of the group and then let someone seemlessly go off the front, all others stay in the wheels and uncoordinate the chase. Sénéchal does not need to attack, he saves his legs to follow the big moves later. The crucial period is the section between the Paterberg and the final time up Oude Kwaremont, they must have riders in front with no VDP/WVA present and perhaps form alliances, they need to be conservative until then, and there attack as hard as possible.
Best of the rest
The competition is fierce though, there are plenty of top riders who will be looking to strike chaos into the race and take a massive win. You've got some big guns, firstly AG2R who had a very good performance in E3 and come in as a very experienced duo with a great block, Greg van Avermaet specially has looked very strong lately and will be looking to finally take his dream race home and Oliver Naesen himself is a very decent outsider in the fight for the podium. You've got Ineos, endurance may be an issue for Tom Pidcock but he has shown improvement and may be able to get over that obstacle, he's a flyweight unlike most of the other favourites but somehow he's a brilliant classics riders, he lacks the experience though but his teammate Dylan van Baarle doesn't, the Dutchman brought brilliant form from Paris-Nice and made everything click in a brilliant solo win in Dwaars door Vlaanderen. Still, I don't expect him to be covered by the big guns, he's got brilliant form and a massive engine and will be a very dangerous outsider. There is Sep Vanmarcke who is another rider who's been very sharp in the cobbled classics, he usually faces some mishaps but if he's able to avoid them he'll be in a good position for a good result, he'll depend on offensive racing but that's his style, and you'll have Bora aswell who should be quite strong tomorrow, have Nils Politt as the likely leader but also Peter Sagan as an alternative, unsure of where his form is at but judging by his Milano Sanremo performance and the win in Catalunya, he is a rider that needs to be taken into consideration with his knowledge and past in the classics.
On the side there are some who don't have a sprint to be able to contest the big guns, but they'll be looking for an opportunity to go off the front like the Lotto riders Tim Wellens and Florian Vermeersch, Groupama's Stefan Kung and Valentin Madouas and DSM's Tiesj Benoot and Soren Kragh Andersen who have been underwhelming so far in the cobbles.
There are also some sprinters on the field that excel on the classics, will be looking for a conservative race and depend on decent groups, they are dangerous though if they're brought back as for example in the case of Alexander Kristoff, he's got brilliant endurance and an even better record here with 7 Top5's in the last 8 editions, including a win in 2015. He's not a rider you can bring to the finish, and he's got Matteo Trentin who has arguably not been racing tactically well but has very good legs nonetheless. On this field you'll find riders like the French sprinters Christophe Laporte who finished runner-up in Dwaars door Vlaanderen and will be looking for alliances, Bryan Coquard should be in the same situation representing B&B Hotels, Qhubeka have Giacomo Nizzolo who's been riding really well in the cobbled classics and will be hoping to resist the big moves and have a strong finish, the team has some very good names like Dimitri Claeys, Victor Campenaerts and Michael Gogl who on their best day can finish on the Top10, but they can also be big weapons working for the Italian and sparking some chasing alliances in favour of the fast riders. I will include Trek here because of Mads Pedersen's brilliant sprinting abilities, although Jasper Stuyven won Milano-Sanremo he's struggled to get results in the cobbles, the team can possibly have the goal of allying in bringing groups back and taking it to a sprint finish for the Dane. On this list I'll include some riders that used to be dangerous sprinters but at this point they aren't able to take sprint wins like Michael Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli both who had stupendous Gent-Wevelgem performances and will take motivation from it.
The field is very strong so some of these riders may struggle to get a result, but they've shown form and quality to get a Top10 or similar to it, includes some of the Pro Continental team leaders like Warren Barguil who comes in leading Arkea after a great performance in Dwaars door Vlaanderen, Arjen Livyns who should be Bingoal's main card to play here and the rider you've probably wandered why I haven't mentioned yet, Anthony Turgis. I saved him for the end on purpose, I think Top10 would be an expected result seeing how consistent he's been throughout the spring, he was 4th here last year and he's definitely not a rider that will be covered by the big names, but has the quality to take a big win. On this segment, to wrap it off, I'll include EF who have big names but Alberto Bettiol has had health issues, Michael Valgren should be the leader but an outsider move can surprise into the Top10, Movistar who will have Ivan Cortina as their leader and Intermarche's duo Aimé de Gendt and Loic Vliegen.
Prediction Time
⭐ Lampaert, GV.Avermaet, Naesen, Pidcock, Vanmarcke, Kristoff, Laporte, Pedersen, Stuyven, Turgis
I think Wout van Aert is going to win this, he's got flying form and he'll go on the attack early, he's perhaps the rider who is least likely to ever crack. Big engine that can go solo, almost unbeatable sprint and very good tactically.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
Comments