It was a reduced one but I'm glad we still have the pleasure of watching the Tour des Flandres in such a horrible year. This the 4th of 4 monuments this season is the culmination of the cobbled classics and also pretty much the culmination of all one-day races and the startlist is huge!
The Route
As in Gent-Wevelgem we have a little shorter version of the route, it's day for the Ronde and it's a special day of the year, albeit being in a completely different time of year. Instead of 270 kilometers last year we have 242.5 but by no means is it an easy race, as every year we have a whole lot of cobblestones and short steep bergs. There is almost the same amount of climbing despite the shorter distance and there is no Muur, that's the essential change but one that shouldn't affect the race heavily, instead there's a bigger concentration and sequence of climbing.
It all kick off after 88 kilometers of racing with some cobbled sectors, and the Kateberg is the first berg that will be ridden with 142.5Km to go but the real start to the race comes in the first passage of one of the race's icons.
The Oude Kwaremont is 2Km long but 1.5Km in cobblestones, a rough brute sector with a buildup of gradient almost to the double digits. It's a suffocating road that flattens and ramps up again until the end. It's where the decisive move was made last year by Alberto Bettiol. This first passage summits with 123.5Km to and should be the first moment of big selection at the race.
From there on the race is fully rugged in classic Belgian roads with the Kortekeer (113Km to go), Eikenberg (105.5Km to go), Wolvenberg (102Km to go), Holleweg (Cobbled, 100.5Km to go), Haaghoek (Cobbled, 94.5Km to go), Leberg (93.5Km to go), Berendries (89.5Km to go), Valkenberg (84Km to go) and the Kanarieberg (70.5Km to go). This quick and harsh succession of climbs will be quite hard, there's a lot of room for attacks to cement, for the race to be severely broken and split and it all comes before the final sequence of bergs. These are a mix of bergs, cobbled sectors and both.
With 55Km to go the race goes back to the Oude Kwaremont and quickly after the Paterberg (51.5Km to go). With 45Km to go comes the iconic Koppenberg with it's beastly 22% gradients. With 39.5Km to go comes the Steenbekdries quickly followed by the Taienberg (37Km to go), and the Oude Kruisberg (28.5Km to go) will be the last climb before the last couple of Flandrien climbs.
The Oude Kwaremont comes with 16.5 and the final climb of the day, the Paterberg, comes with 13Km to go.
The final 13 kilometers into Oudenaarde are on classic roads we see every year, the exit of the Paterberg is very quick and it's easy to create a gap, but the remaining drag to the finish is very straightforward and the most painful kilometers of the season for many of the classics riders despite being flat.
The Weather
Very little wind, but any should come from the west, there's no rain forecast luckily but it's set to be a cloudy cold day.
Team Depth
This is Flandres, attack territory, narrow roads, steep climbs, punctures crashes, countless attacks, it is crucial in this race to have a strong team with you, not to work for you, but to cover moves when other teams attack or launch attacks, so that the leader/remaining teammates don't have to put themselves on the wind. A beautiful combination of knowing when to save your legs, know when to move, and have someone alongside you who also knows how to do it, experience is very important here, so let's take a look at the most experienced and full teams.
The defending champion Alberto Bettiol pulled one impressive ride last year, not from opportunity but absolutely flying on the Oude Kwaremont and riding solo until the finish, he is this year returning in great form to defend his title and has again a very strong team including Sep Vanmarcke, Jens Keukeleire and Sebastian Langeveld who are all incredibly experienced riders and also an impressive young rider in development Stefan Bissinger. Decuninck is usually always the first one to mention, and I mean no words can describe how strong they look and like all cobbled races it's hard to see how they wouldn't win, having Tim DeClercq to work, he and Dries Devenyns can play wildcard cards to force other teams to work nonetheless, cobbled specialists Florian Senechal, Zdenek Stybar and Yves Lampaert, riders who live in these hard roads, young mega talent Kasper Asgreen who was runner-up last year in his debut and also world champion Julian Alaphilippe who at the start shouldn't be a main favourite, he doesn't have the experience in this field and his lightweight build isn't ideal, but he's very explosive for the short efforts and in a team where everyone will probably attack for sure Alaphilippe will fit in very well.
The strongest team in terms of depth though excluding Deceuninck though may very well be Trek, Mads Pedersen as came into form lately in incredible fashion and his recent win in Gent-Wevelgem was out of both amazing legs and great tactical read, he's grown into Trek who can finally celebrate the renewal of a classics team as strong as the times of Cancellara. Pedersen has a very strong sprint, a resistance to weather and long races, a lot of smart and won't be marked like other riders like WVA or MVDP, his talent combined with Jasper Stuyven who was equally as strong early in the season will be very dangerous in any scenario, having riders like Edward Theuns, Ryan Mullen and Alex Kirsch also throws in a lot of depth and experience in this team that thrives on powerhouses. There's Ineos having an apparent fatigued Michal Kwiatkowski but who could surprise, Dylan van Baarle and Luke Rowe, there's Bora who are bringing Max Schachmann for experience I reckon but also for the possibility of a surprise specially in the absence of Sagan, Daniel Oss and Jempy Drucker will be good options for a Top10, Sunweb has Tiesj Benoot and Soren Kragh Andersen for a very strong duo supported by a lot of young riders who have little experience but a lot of quality, specially Nils Eekhoff, and finally Lotto who have John Degenkolb in good form, frequently I believe he's over but his recent performance in Gent-Wevelgem was very positive and as a rider that can sprint he's always dangerous, has Tim Wellens and impressive neo-pro Florian Vermeersch as other cards to play.
Rogue Hunters
Some of these teams are strong but don't have such depth as the ones previously mentioned, the list is big and as I've said before this startlist is so incredibly strong that it's hard to even put anyone above the others. Some of the fastest men include Matteo Trentin, a rider who used to be a top sprinter between the classics specialists but is seemingly no more, he's got the trait of attacking too much which has come from a past as marked man, without GVA as a double-header it won't be easy for him to make the difference but he did it this week already, there's also Dylan Teuns and Sonny Colbrelli who will be leading Bahrain and can be a team that somewhat allies into making a fast finish, something that should be mentioned in the list below but Teuns is for me the more reliable option. There's Nils Pollit too, a great talent and superb rider but unfortunately it doesn't seem like he's on the right form at the moment, but you never know when he may surprise.
Then there's a separate list for those who have to attack because in a sprint there's little option they'd have alongside other big guns. I'll give Oli Naesen the benefit of the doubt he has shown some really strong sprints in the past but hasn't gotten those results to show he's a main contender recently, Stefan Kung who is actually in brilliant form but relies on opportunity and attacks in flat roads to succeed as I reckon he's too heavy and not explosive to attack on the climbs to cause destruction, there's Luke Durbridge who's a very similar rider but in a level below, some riders depend on a lot of luck and sense of opportunity but on their best day are candidates for a win like Michael Valgren and Alexey Lutsenko, and two of my wildcards for tomorrow are Niki Terpstra and Aimé de Gendt.
The fast men
Media is for sure their main rival as they are so widely reported as the men to beat that everyone marks them more and it becomes almost mission impossible for them, the two Cyclocross stars. Firstly Mathieu van der Poel, coming from a still incredibly impressive win in Binkbank Tour, and Wout van Aert, WVA has a slightly stronger team including Mike Teunissen and Amund Jansen who can be incredibly dangerous, however the main talk is on how they will ride. Their best chance is to attack early, split Deceuninck so as to not be attacked from all sides, both have very strong sprints and can resist the distance so I reckon they will be the main two firestarters but they also need to ride conservatively enough to directly respond to attacks from other favourites who will attack. In the classics opportunity and tactics are as important as having good legs, meaning there's several riders with as many chances of winning as them, so it will take alliances for them to thrive which may not come easy but is vital.
Finally there's past winner and last year's third place Alexander Kristoff, I think he won't really be the man most riders will be eyeing but his strong sprint and endurance make him a dangerous rider when on form, he's experienced and doesn't have the pressure to chase that others do.
Prediction Time
🌟 Alaphilippe, Senechal, Stybar, Lampaert, SK.Andersen, Kung, Naesen, Colbrelli, Teunissen
It's the 1st April 2018, a young Danish rider goes on the break of the Tour des Flandres, although he's had some good wins in the past and was a big talent he wasn't exactly a classics specialist, on that day he withold an entire peloton of the biggest classics riders in the world except for Niki Terpstra and turned into a rider talked of as a future contender. For year and a half though little was heard of him until the rainy day in Yorkshire where he flew across the dangerous rolling roads and took the title. For some it was never enough, was all "luck", this year he's won bunch sprints at World Tour level, has had incredible domestique work and has grown into form to take an amazing win in Gent-Wevelgem with confidence. Currently Mads Pedersen is one of the biggest contenders to any kind of cobbled classics, yet he doesn't have the pressure to win that Deceuninck/WVA/MVDP have, and he has an incredibly strong Jasper Stuyven with him. Together they can take this race home if they play their cards well, my call for tomorrow is Mads Pedersen.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!