It was a fast day and one with a very cruel finish to it, there was a strong breakaway early in the day but several teams made the effort to bring it back seing GC threats, Gino Mader was the strongest of the group and made it to the line but before he crossed it coming from behind Primoz Roglic took another win with a long sprint from the chasing group, beating the Swiss and Max Schachmann.
Positive: Jumbo had a easy day out with an easy win seemingly, some riders naturally came up the overall, but there was no major GC change.
Negative: Jorgenson survived but dropped down in the Top10, Latour and Gaudu had a performance well below the expected.
The Route
The stage was switched up and is now a mere 93 kilometers in lenght made of a 3-lap circuit around the town of Levens. The stage suits the sprinters but is also quite good for a breakaway, the riders will go by the finish with 73 and 36.5Km to the finish, in the final lap we've got the Côte de Duranus sumitting with just 9.5Km to go, it's 4Km long at 4.4% and after a short dowhill there's a little spike finishing with 4Km to go with 7.5% for a whole kilometer, before slightly rising to the line, the finish line is still 78 meters above that little spike.
The Weather
Seeing how the stage will be ridden in the valley it may not be at all very exposed, but the wind forecast is quite strong coming from the northwest, somewhat a headwind in the final uphill section of the stage and a tailwind throughout the main flat section of the circuit.
The Favourites
A sprint is the likely scenario for the stage and the sprinters will have another opportunity to capitalize on their fast finish, and with Sam Bennett taking over the wins on the fastest finishes a lot of men are still here licking their lips to get one, the Irish may still be the main favourite as he can climb solidly but there will be competition firstly from those who can specially do these sharp punches very well like Christophe Laporte and Michael Matthews who had to watch Primoz Roglic take a cruel win in front of them in Biot, they will try to get back that result they fought so hard to get, Bryan Coquard is also one who will be hoping for a hard race on the climbs as he can hang on and posteriorly have the necessary kick to outsprint the competition.
But there are a lot more men who will be up there and eyeing the stage like Arnaud Démare who has yet to capitalize on his power this season, on the field of the more powerhouse sprinters who can struggle tomorrow are Mads Pedersen, Cees Bol and Alexander Kristoff, they occasionally do very well though and alongside Pascal Ackermann or Phil Bauhaus they will be those most targeted to be dropped, you've got some who one day thrives but the next day isn't in the picture like Giacomo Nizzolo or Nacer Bouhanni who in my opinion also have a very good opportunity, some riders like Ben Swift, Kristian Sbaragli and Danny van Poppel also have a good opportunity with a rough stage ahead for them.
The stage can however go in a different way, with such short distance, strong wind and rolling roads (specially at the start) it can be quite easy for a strong group to go in front, and there really isn't much distance to get that group back, plus I would believe Deceuninck will want to play that card. It's not too hard of a stage for the rouleurs and you'll see plenty of them on the move tomorrow. Nils Politt for Bora, Nils Eekhoff and Casper Pedersen for DSM, Jonas Rutsch and Magnus Cort for EF, Dylan van Baarle for Ineos, Victor Campenaerts for Qhubeka, Luis Leon Sanchez and Omar Fraile for Astana, Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns for Trek, Bruno Armirail for Groupama, Remi Cavagna and Florian Sénéchal for Deceuninck, Anthony Perez for Cofidis, Dorian Godon and Oliver Naesen for AG2R, Rui Costa and Matteo Trentin for UAE, Anthony Turgis for Direct Energie, finally Krists Neilands and Sep Vanmarcke for Israel.
The list is long for both scenarios, it will be a very exciting stage from start to finish for sure and anything can happen.
Prediction Time
⭐ Roglic, Ackermann, Kristoff, Stuyven, Cavagna, C.Pedersen, Sénéchal, Godon, Trentin
I'm going to call out a breakaway win tomorrow, or possibly a late attack succeeding. My pick is Dorian Godon, he has been under the radar but carrying great form, brilliant powerhouse who when given the opportunity can really pull off a great win.
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