It was quite a day of racing in Paris-Nice, after seeing the final stage with a different easier profile, today proved likely the last opportunity for the breakaway specialists and the beginning of the stage saw lots of attacks, there was a strong group getting away but the pace was constantly on a high pace and the reduced bunch sprint happened, but it was the leader Primoz Roglic who easily outsprinted Christophe Laporte and Michael Matthews on the line, expanding his lead that is now 41 seconds over Max Schachmann.
Positive: Jumbo did very little work and still came home with the win, Roglic showed his continuous dominance.
Negative: Brandon McNulty had a crash and had to abandon whilst sitting third.
The Route
The queen stage. It was shortened due to the restrictions in Nice and has a rougher start, suited for the climbers looking to get in the break, and with only 119.5Km on the road it will be a rather short day on the road, and regarding the GC it'll be all about the final ascent.
The roads to the IS in Tournerfort are very technical, I doubt any attack will be put there but the roads (visible in the profile) are very inconstant and also quite twisty. However I assume all the teams will put their main cards on the climb to...
the Col de la Colmiane. This is a constant climb if you could ever find one, but it is hard enough to create serious differences, last year Nairo Quintana took a dominant win here with 46 seconds over Tiesj Benoot. 16Km long, it's a climb for around 39-40 minutes, attacks can come at any point and likely that will be with around 7Km to go as there is a little section where the riders can breathe a bit and then make a move (but that's just a possible scenario, of course).
The Weather
Temperatures will be low, there will be some strong gusts but generally not much wind throughout the day, will hit from the west.
The Favourites
The main favourite is Primoz Roglic I should just start there because there is only one man to beat. Despite being his first race of the season the Slovenian is in his canibal mode and he's on a league of his own. Jumbo will be controlling the stage and surely the final climb aswell, he doesn't need to reply to the attack, just ride his own pace but likely he will if they pop from his rivals, but he can probably just ride his own pace to the line and take another solo win. The battle will be behind for the podium spots that are tightly separated and perhaps some riders that get themselves in the break.
A short stage with quite some climbing is always favourable, there are some men in great form with freedom to go into the front like Dylan van Baarle a local to these roads, Krists Neilands, Dylan Teuns and Gino Mader for Bahrain, Julien Bernard, Laurens de Plus or Alexey Lutsenko. Honestly more riders can be there but it depends on the freedom given to those around the Top20.
Regarding the remainder of the GC fight there are several contenders. The Astana have a good entrance with the two best climbers on the podium fight, Ion Izagirre is currently sitting a strong third but it's in 4th placed Alexander Vlasov that the team can and should attack with, he should be eyeing the stage but perhaps as importantly climb onto the podium dislodging Max Schachmann. The Bora rider will be fighting to defend his podium against the Astanas but not only as last year's rival Tiesj Benoot sits 6th and will surely be on the attack tomorrow on a climb he finished second last year together with Jai Hindley, for sure they will be the ones attacking more. On the riders that should be racing more offensively you should find the likes of French pure climbers David Gaudu and Guillaume Martin who actually sit outside the Top10 currently, AG2R who've got Ben O'Connor and Aurelien Paret-Peintre in decent positions and riders like Jack Haig or Harm Vanhoucke who haven't really got anything to loose and have the talent to finish way higher on the overall.
On the field of riders who will probably race more conservative you should have 5th placed Matteo Jorgenson who's confirming his talent here and is on the brink of a brilliant GC result, riders like Lucas Hamilton and Pierre Latour aren't exactly conservative riders but I don't think they have the need to attack as they sit well in the overall, they should stay on Jumbo's wheel and try to take time on the men ahead by pace.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kruijswijk, van Baarle, I.Izagirre, Latour, O'Connor, Vanhoucke, Hamilton
Yes.
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