It was an abnormal day in Paris-Nice, with no-one setting on a breakaway due to the strong headwind, a mid-stage group move shortly threatened the dominance of the sprinters but everything came back for a bunch sprint, where another perfect leadout allowed Sam Bennett to take another win, this time in front of Nacer Bouhanni and Pascal Ackermann.
Positive: Bennett taking another win, Bouhanni with a good sprint, Roglic coming out unharmed from a crash that affected most of his team.
Negative: Démare, Pedersen, Bol missing out on the sprint.
The Route
This is a breakaway day, but I'll explain better why down below. The actual stage is 202.5 kilometers long, it's the longest day in this race and it features over 3000 meters of climbing, spread throughout the day but there is a clear mountainous feature in the combination of the Côte de Cabris (100.5Km to go) and the Col du Ferrier (90Km to go) which will put the fast men into trouble if there's some solid pace going on, however the dificulties from them come more from the pace that can be set in some of the climbs.
I think none of them will be very important, the stage win will come down to the final ascent, the little hilltop before the final IS in Roquefort-Les-Pins is far from easy with 2Km at 6.8%, from there on there is a big section of rolling and technical roads down to the base of the final ascent.
(Profile has some slight imprecisions due to GPS) The final climb isn't brutal, 1.9Km at 5.1% isn't exactly one for the climbers but it's also not one for the sprinters. It does suit those that can climb very well, but mostly the puncheurs will be the ones that can thrive the most in a climb like this. It has it's rougher part in the middle, specially in the switchback, it starts and finishes with more mellow gradients.
The Weather
Very strong wind from the west. There is no other way of putting it other than perfect for a breakaway, it will be generally a tailwind throughout most of the day, towards the end there are quite some direction changes, the final climb will have a headwind.
The Favourites
You could say the peloton had a chance of contesting this stage if BikeExchange would get assist from other teams fully comited in making it a reduced bunch sprint, but that just isn't likely to happen as the GC men will surely be saving their legs for the queen stage and simply because there aren't many teams who will want to have that done, to then likely have someone like Roglic outsprint their fast man. So with the tailwind, rolling roads and decent amount of climbing, tomorrow is a breakaway day!
There are a lot of men that can do it to be honest, the start is flat so even the heavy riders can get themselves in front, and the stage isn't ever overly hard, meaning tactics and opportunist moves, specially having more than one rider in front, can prove decisive:
Bora - Grossschartner, Politt
DSM - Pedersen
Ineos - van Baarle
Qhubeka - Armée, Campenaerts
Astana - Fraile, LL.Sanchez
Groupama - Armirail
Lotto - Gilbert, de Gendt, Vermeersch
Arkéa - C.Swift
Deceuninck - Cavagna, Sénéchal
Cofidis - Geschke, Perez
AG2R - Godon, Paret-Peintre
UAE - Costa, Trentin
Direct Energie - Turgis
Israel - Bevin, Vanmarcke
B&B Hotels - Hivert
Of course there are still some riders who would love the peloton to be deciding the stage, obviously Michael Matthews is the main name alongside Christophe Laporte, both riders who've got a strong sprint but also a great climbing power, Roglic and Schachmann who are in the GC battle would have be very well suited to it, EF's Magnus Cort, Ineos' Ben Swift or Alpecin's Kristian Sbaragli.
Prediction Time
⭐ Matthews, Laporte, Roglic, Schachmann, Cort, Politt, Campenaerts, Fraile, Vanmarcke, Gilbert, Paret-Peintre, Bevin
Remi Cavagna has been trying quite a lot, he's also had bad luck. In February he didn't have that good form that gets him his incredible wins but now he does, tomorrow's stage suits him very well and I expect him to win from the breakaway with a solo attack.
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