It was another exciting day's racing in Paris-Nice, the breakaway despite only 4 riders big was always posting a threat with the profile, in the intermediate sprint there was a fight for a second and a swarm of attacks came after with Deceuninck breaking the race, eventually a strong group was caught by the peloton but the last member of the breakaway Jan Tratnik survided... until 60 meters to go, caught in a dramatic heartbraking finish where from the peloton Niccolo Bonifazio surged with an impressive and easy win, beating Cortina and Sagan.
Positive: Direct Energie getting a brilliant win that will be remembered.
Negative: Ewan kept his mishap streak, today transmission problems took him out of contention. EF lost Craddock, van Garderen and Woods and lots of the big sprinters missed an opportunity for an elusive win.
The Route
Stage 6 is a very interesting stage. There's climbing, it can be a GC day if there are riders with intentions, but it can as easily be an easy day mostly if the GC men are looking to save themselves for Saturday. This stage that goes up to Apt in the Provence region is a very interesting one, featuring a ton of climbing in form of both short peaks and medium-lenght climbs.
The final categorized climb is the Côte d'Auribeau, not an overly hard climb but there are a lot of switchbacks and it may turn harder than it seems on paper. If the stage is very fast there can definetely be moves here, as the descent to Apt is a quick one and attacks are hard to reel in.
The run-in features an intermediate sprint on a short climb with 3Km away from the finish so attacks are sure to come, the steep descent to the finish could mean for a really exciting finish.The climb is 1.8Km at 7% average but has some much rougher gradientsand a lot of switchbacks, ideal for attacking.
The Weather
The wind returns! Moderate in general but strong gusts of wind from the Northwest. Will mean for a tailwind in general throughout the day, with headwind in Auribeau set to likely block raids in the peloton.
The Favourites
Today was a day for the break but there were some crazy attacks over the final climb that really ended up being crucial for the day's outcome. Tomorrow however the weather will be more favourable for a successful break, lots of abandons by strong riders mean less working responsabilities and more riders free to shoot their shot. The day is hard but the start isn't overly hard, so there's a chance we see a small breakaway, but I'm hoping to get a hard start to the stage and lots of strong riders in front. It's in my opinion 80% likely to see a winner from here.
For the peloton however we must take into consideration some of the GC contenders at this point are puncheurs and not climbers, hence there may be some work throughout the day to make sure they can take time and bonus seconds in the end of the day, so controling who goes in front is key. I don't expect Bora to chase hard as they will want an easy race for Schachmann but he defintely has the kick and the skills to attack in that final hill, now two teams who may and will likely take a hold of the peloton are Bahrain who will look to set up Dylan Teuns for an attack and also Deceuninck, they have several options but in Julian Alaphillipe they will likely put confidence to attack the stage. Sunweb have Tiesj Benoot and Soren Kragh Andersen, they may also try to help but don't think they'll be able to create damage. As for the climbers they will wait, the stage isn't hard enough tomorrow and doesn't suit them, they will hope to keep their gaps and make their move saturday.
So, breakaway opportunists, my favourite game! Thomas de Gendt ok I'll just put him right there, again it suits him, no more sprint stages so no responsabilities. But at same time he's been working hard in the peloton so keep your expectations controled for tomorrow (but hope I'm wrong though). Now Deceuninck obviously must be mentioned, they have nothing to loose really, between Jungels and Stybar they will surely be looking for representation in front who can pull it off, AG2R haven't looked good here, but Pierre Latour's performance in the TT makes me believe he has pretty good legs, I think he may give it a go tomorrow as it also suits him pretty well. Sander Armée and Nicolas Edet haven't proved their form but have immense quality for such a stage, Michael Matthews for Sunweb and Caruso/Bilbao for Bahrain if they so decide to focus on a breakaway instead of chasing in the peloton, and for Wanty Xandro Meurisse and Aimé de Gendt should seriously consider tomorrow's stage, they won't get a better opportunity for sure.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐ de Gendt, Jungels, Schachmann
⭐⭐ Alaphillipe, Teuns, Matthews, Bilbao
⭐ SK.Andersen, Benoot, Caruso, Latour, Stybar, Armée, Meurisse
I'm calling for a Bob Jungels win from the breakaway. He is back in form and he is hungry, Deceuninck will surely make moves tomorrow and he has the freedom to be in front and the power to win.
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