In today's time-trial it was indeed a mixed and exciting battle and coming out the fastest from the hilly route was the Dane Soren Kragh Andersen. After showing some great form lately he capitalized on the lumpy route, the pure time-trialists struggled and indeed made way for the powerhouses, with Max Schachmann finishing second and cementing his lead and Kasper Asgreen third.
Positive: The big winner of the day though is Max Schachmann. Although his lead isn't huge heading into the mountains, he does have a pretty good buffer over the climbers and definetely has a strong team with Grossschartner currently sitting third.
Negative: No proper bad performances, a name that stood out was Nibali loosing quite a lot of time, makes me very unsure of his form to be honest, not yet capable of those sharp efforts yet.
The Route
Stage 5 is the one that is almost "made" for a breakaway. This stage is too hard for the pure sprinters, it isn't too hard but chasing teams will surely suffer a lot, and it's far from hard enough for the attackers, there's a lot of up-and-down in the last half of the stage so there should be a breakaway win from this day as the GC riders get ready for the hard days to come ahead.
I've included only the final climb, up to the intermediate sprint, it isn't really complicated but for sure the sprinters will already arrive here in dificulties and as there is a sprint the pace will go up quite a bit. This is if it's for the peloton, if breakaway decisive attacks can definetely come here.
As for the finish, it's not really technical. There's a corner with 750 meters to go that is complicated but besides there is nothing really showing, normal roads too.
The Weather
No wind, the riders will be happy. Long day in the saddle but the conditions will be solid.
The Favourites
Tomorrow is a very interesting day, could definetely see two completely different scenarios. The 3 following days are hard, the GC riders will be saving themselves so we won't see GC teams pushing, only the sprinter ones. However both the first and last third of the stage are rather lumpy, so it favours the forming of a strong group, and won't be easy to reel in gaps in the end if strong riders find themselves in front.
As it's not often I will take the opportunity to sense the breakaway chasers and who could reallistically take the win. Firstly no doubt, this is a De Gendt day! No doubt the route suits him very well, but lots of riders will be on the lookout. If Deceuninck want they can also plant some riders in front that can be of a big threat, without Sam Bennett and a serious GC contender they will and have tons of power to chase a win, between Asgreen/Lampaert/Stybar/Jungels one of them will be in front if they really have intention, I reckon it's a perfect activity. Stefan Kung of FDJ, AG2R may try something with Gougeard and Naesen as the climbers aren't doing well in the overall, Victor Campenaerts and Michael Valgren should try to get NTT in front for a second stage win and Xandro Meurisse is my last wildcard.
But there's also a good chance to see a sprint win. Bora should help keep control as they have two GC riders in brilliant position and an Ackermann/Sagan combination that can battle for the stage winner, but I wouldn't say the stage is perfect for neither of them. And besides Bennett and Walscheid who hasn't started today's stage the other sprinters should all be there. There aren't any real sprinters who should struggle with the climbing, it will depend on team support and how they feel really, and as a flat sprint they should all have same chances if they make it to the finish, so it's only mentioning the days already seen. Giacomo Nizzolo has been doing great and is searching for the points jersey so he will definetely be there, Caleb Ewan is looking for his win still as he's been struggling with bad luck, Israel still with a mega team can perhaps put Rudy Barbier in a perfect scenario to win, Sunweb can keep on a roll and bring Cees Bol to a second consecutive team win, Michael Matthews also an option for a possible breakaway if they so intend, I wouldn't be surprised, there's Marc Sarreau, Nacer Bouhanni, Bryan Coquard, Andrea Pasqualon and Elia Viviani for the Italian hopes of a win alongside Nizzolo and wildcards Jasper Stuyven and Ivan Cortina, who should like a hard stage but don't have an ideal sprint situation.
Prediction Time
⭐⭐⭐ Bol, Ewan
⭐⭐ Sagan, Ackermann, Nizzolo, de Gendt
⭐ Asgreen, Kung, Barbier, Viviani, Matthews, Stuyven, Cortina
Well tomorrow's gotta be the day. He's had punctures, riders stuck in his wheel, he surely can't have this bad luck everytime right? Tomorrow suits him, honestly he hasn't given me confidence this race but I know he has the form and the potential, tomorrow he may finally take a win in what is his last chance.
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