Stefan Bissegger has taken the biggest win in his career so far by taking an impressive win in the Paris-Nice time-trial, putting on a furious time and the yellow jersey by beating Remi Cavagna and Primoz Roglic on the road.
Positive: Roglic finished a strong third and is already in pole position regarding the GC men, no doubt it's exactly what Jumbo had hoped for. McNulty finishing 4th, Kruijswijk 11th also put in great times.
Negative: Campenaerts absolutely blew up the TT, not even in contention, Tao Hart, Tiesj Benoot, David Gaudu, Ben O'Connor, Jai Hindley, Guillaume Martin, Harm Vanhoucke, Gregor Muhlberger were riders taking a solid hit when it comes to their expectations, most would have expected a less good time, but they have a lot to make up now in the mountains.
The Route
There's 3500 meters of climbing tomorrow on a day that is really interesting. The day is full of little hills of the Massif Central just west of the Saône from start to finish. You could say the day is full of traps, but the truth is most riders should wait for the final climb, however climbing will come aplenty.
No this profile isn't wrong. The riders will go up Mont Brouillt twice, the first with 66Km to go, and the last with just 21Km to go. It's a small hill but it features some brutal ramps, several times, and these don't just suit any rider this will seriously hurt those who prefer a constant pace. Between the two ascents there is an ascent of the climb almost to the finish, Col de Durbize it's marked on the profile, it includes the hardest part of the final climb and it's summit (and IS) is positioned 48.5Km to go.
The Col de Durbize will be ridden again, and like the previous climb, it's quite an inconstant climb. It features some flat sections, some very steep sections and an intermediate sprint halfway again at the summit of Durbize. But from there on there will be an extra 3.5Km to go with an average gradient of around 6%, with a rather technical finish in the very small possibility that a group finish will decide the stage.
The Weather
Some low temperatures and no wind, will be just fine.
The Favourites
Roglic and Jumbo are already in their zone. Although they don't have the yellow jersey Primoz Roglic sits x and is currently the best placed rider of the GC contenders and Jumbo only have to play defensively from now on, seeing how Roglic is clearly carrying good form and is without a doubt the man to beat, he also has a strong team to support him with Steven Kruijswijk and George Bennett headlining. I don't think Jumbo will need any sort of alliance honestly, but for sure we will see more riders trying to keep everything together and keep a pace as even as possible throughout the climbs, Brandon McNulty is surely quite happy with his current position and he'll try to not loose his current GC benefits.
Tomorrow is the first climbing challenge so it's uncertain still how strong will everyone be, also how they'll deal with such bizare climbs, but surely most other riders will be eyeing an opportunity as soon as one appears. Astana are in a good position with Ion Izagirre and Alexander Vlasov currently within 16 seconds of Roglic, maybe they want to keep that double aproach but they can also play the numbers game, in good position is also Max Schachmann and Dylan Teuns but these are more punchy and surely they don't have any better chance than tomorrow to take time on their rivals, I expect to see them on the move if they have the legs for it, Felix Grossschartner can also be a wildcard there right behind.
Then there's a meaningful split to those behind who have to attack if they want to move up the GC. Sure, some will prefer the queen stage, but in a race so short there isn't much space to move up the overall, Ineos definitely haven't been having the race they wanted so far, Hart tomorrow has to take time on Roglic if he wants to win the race, but even in the fight for the podium he doesn't really have other options. Several of the names I mentioned above are in the same situation no matter what their goal is, riders like Guillaume Martin, Harm Vanhoucke who lost a lot of time today really, there is DSM who have Tiesj Benoot who should love tomorrow's climbs, Jai Hindley is here aswell but I reckon that if he is to try something it should be in La Colmiane, AG2R have Bob Jungels and Ben O'Connor targeting the overall and they also need to have great legs tomorrow to keep themselves in reach of the Top10, and the big man David Gaudu will have pressure on his shoulders to perform and take time back, as he is in good form and is one of the few who can put a dent in Roglic's armour.
There are some more outsiders who can get in those main moves tomorrow, although maybe just 1 or 2 and if they have a really good day, some I could mention like David De la Cruz or Jack Haig who can surely be there but may have domestique duties.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kruijswijk, I.Izagirre, Teuns, Grossschartner, G.Martin, Vanhoucke, Hindley, O'Connor
It's always hard to go against him. Truth is there's nothing Roglic can't do, this kind of weird stage isn't something that should put him in distress, he climbs as well as all other climbers and sprints as strong as any aswell.
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