The last race we've seen last season before the general lockdown of the peloton, this year Paris-Nice is back hopefully to make it all the way to Nice, with a set of stages for every kind of rider, where a big GC battle is expected and classics riders also come here for preparation.
The Route
The opening stage, often has the race been swarmed with crosswinds and rain, but even if it doesn't this is set to be an interesting day with some traps in a day that is in theory for the sprinters.
Day two is one for the sprinters no doubt, very little obstacles in the way to Amilly.
Stage 3 will open up the GC battle if everything goes normal, it's a decent 14Km time-trial which isn't completely flat, but will kick off the fight for the win of the race surely.
Stage 4 is one that the organizers did really well on, the Massif Central may have an important role this year as this stages features a brutal double ascent of Mont Brouilly and also a double ascent of the Col De Durbize, two climbs that feature very steep and inconstant gradients.
A final opportunity for the sprinters in Bollène.
One for a breakaway. Puncheurs should have the upper hand, in peloton there will be hard pace both ways on the final climb and there are chances of tiny splits but everyone should try to save their legs for the next day.
The queen stage again to La Colmiane, the stage will be all about that final climb for sure and will be the most important factor for the GC.
The classic final day, good for raids but hard to pull them off. A stage win and an exciting day of racing is always at hand, but let's see if it turns into more than that!
Weather for the Week
Obviously a forecast for over a week can't ever be too reliable, but it seems like the beginning of the week will be coldish, and as the race heads towards Nice it'll get rainy and windy. Race to the Sun they say...
GC Contenders
Honestly, 1 man to beat, Primoz Roglic. The story is for me short and simple, this is the man everyone needs to ride against if they want to win this race, there is no other rider more consistent than him and he's got no flaws, he's got as support Steven Kruijswijk and George Bennett who should be more than enough in the mountains, he's got a time-trial early in the race where he should have an important step, some more riders will be eyeing that stage. Astana have some threatening riders, the team should be lead by Alexander Vlasov who's one of the uprising climbers in the peloton, supported or with a co-leadership with Ion Izagirre who would really benefit from the late-week harsh weather, Alexey Lutsenko can also be thought of if he's got some better form than the past few weeks. Then there's the defending champion Max Schachmann, he built his GC win last year partly in the TT and then hung on, he's got a nice route again for his abilities but will only be starting his season here, he may get support or support his teammate Felix Grossschartner, furthermore you've got for example AG2R's Bob Jungels who should fancy that stage and will likely be targeting the overall together with Ben O'Connor, and of course the Ineos riders need to always be considered, it's unsure who will be leading but the team bring a trio of quality climbers, Richie Porte perhaps the one most likely to lead with his familiarity to this race and a brilliant season last year, Laurens de Plus hasn't yet shown great form but is a possibility as is Tao Hart. Speaking of Hart, his Giro rival of last season Jai Hindley will also be starting his season here and will be co-leading DSM alongside last year's runner-up Tiesj Benoot.
There are some riders who will struggle in the TT and enter the mountains on the backfoot for sure, David Gaudu who is in good form for one, he'll like the climbs but will need brilliant form to be in there fighting for yellow, Guillaume Martin has had a small injury in his preparation but he is in a similar position, being a great climber but a poor time-trialist.
Besides those then there are several outsiders, I would expect the most from Bahrain, Dylan Teuns and Jack Haig are a brilliant duo for this race but they haven't yet showed the form they need to contest the race, but you've got also Lucas Hamilton who will be leading BikeExchange, David De la Cruz who will be leading UAE's GC ambitions likely, and finally Movistar who have Gregor Muhlberger but mainly the young Matteo Jorgenson.
The Sprinters
Regarding the sprinters there are some opportunities which have lured in a strong lineup of the fastest men in the peloton, Sam Bennett will be the headliner coming in with his full leadout and the bulk of the classics team, in a team fully focused on that objective, the same can be found in Groupama who have got a lot of support for Arnaud Démare. These are the two men to beat but you've got tons of other contenders for those wins, you've got Giacomo Nizzolo coming in with Qhubeka, Alexander Kristoff trying to come back from a so far unseccessful season, the same as Pascal Ackermann and Cees Bol who've got the quality but haven't yet taken that win, you've got some riders who have already won like Phil Bauhaus, Christophe Laporte and Mads Pedersen, all of which seem to come in great form for the race.
Furthermore you've got Michael Matthews starting out his season, will be looking for a hard race in the hills, perhaps some breakaways, same for riders like Ben Swift, Bryan Coquard or even Edvald Boasson Hagen, adding to that you've got the big presence of Andre Greipel who has been thereabouts in some big finishes and also Jasper Philipsen leading in Alpecin-Fenix.
Prediction Time
⭐ Porte, Hart, I.Izagirre, O'Connor, Hindley, Benoot, Haig, Teuns
Going with a GC win for Roglic. Unless anything weird happens, he shouldn't face a hard competition, and as usual he'll start his season off with a kicker.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!
댓글