After the drama that the cycling world has been through for this past week it's with some surprise, combined with satisfaction yet caution that the racing calendar procedes, and perhaps an isolated event, Paris-Nice is set to take place in full force with the exception of CCC, UAE, INEOS, Astana, Mitchelton, Movistar and Jumbo-Visma who have opted to forgo this race. Further wildcards were given to Circus - Wanty Gobert and B&B Hotels - Vital Concept, and all squads are allowed to start with 8 riders.
The route as usual follows the North-to-South path from the capital up until the Mediteraneen sea along 8 stages where all types of riders will have their chance of succeeding, so let's see what they will come across.
The Route
The race starts off with quite a interesting stage. Despite being majorily flat the stage is more suited to the puncheurs, with some peaks here and there throughout the stage to be felt on the road and then a small hill to summit with a mere 4.5Km to go, that climb has cobblestones in it's final section and antecedes a mostly downhill run-up to the line which will mean there is a chance to see a solo or small group finish to line.
The second stage is one for the sprinters, despite a bumpy start the finish is flat and should be the first real opportunity for the sprinters to battle it out for the glory.
Stage 3 is a bit of a mix between the latter two, although it should be one for the sprinters the finish in La Chatre is rather difficult with a big drag to the line setting things up for some of the more punchy riders to settle in the middle. It will be an interesting finish and should be to the likings of many riders.
Stage 4 is the race's ITT and it is quite a difficult one. Being a funky loop around Julian Alaphillipe's home town of Saint-Amand-Montrond there is immediately a name to pop out (that is if he shows some good form). It is in fact a time-trial suited to that type of rider, following the trend of hilly and technical time-trials, here is no exception and on this stage the 15 kilometers of racing will feature some climbing, will feature some very fast descending before a small flat section to the line, a combination between the pure time-trialists and the GC contenders.
Stage 5 is the one that is almost "made" for a breakaway. This stage is too hard for the pure sprinters but far from hard enough for the attackers, there's a lot of up-and-down in the last half of the stage so there should be a breakaway win from this day as the GC riders get ready for the GC days to come ahead.
Although here same could be said, the GC riders will mostly be looking to save themselves, it could be triggered by someone trying to make up time, and in fact this stage that goes up to Apt in the Provence region is a very interesting one, featuring a ton of climbing in form of both short peaks and medium-lenght climbs. The run-in features an intermediate sprint on a short climb with 3Km away from the finish so attacks are sure to come, the steep descent to the finish could mean for a really exciting finish.
Stage 7 is the queen stage. As the time-trial is rather short we can be a bit satisfied that the climbing is actually meant to be the decisive factor in this edition. Although most of the route isn't that hard, the climbers will be looking forward as they tackle the Valdeblore climb at over 16Km in lenght last raced in 2018, the GC will be played out that day and the yellow jersey in the end of the day will likely be consolidated as the winner of the race.
Although on paper it isn't finished, I like the idea of the organizers to switch things up in the final stage, but frankly this isn't it. With the Peille/Èze combination sidelined this year the GC can be played in a more unpredictable way, but the stage is rather easier, and the main climbing will be further from the finish. It's a nice looking stage but with GC in mind I wouldn't gather expectations, will likely be the day of a big breakaway to battle it out for the line as it is every year essentially.
Weather for the Week
There isn't a certain forecast here, but in general we should see some cold cloudy, possibly windy opening days and the last few days should be sunnier and warmer, it's not by chance it's called the race to the sun.
GC Contenders
There are quite some teams that being absent lead to a drop in the number of GC contenders, inbetween them riders like Roglic and Pogacar. But the cancelation of other races as drawn lots of big riders to France, in the stage-racer category there is Vincenzo Nibali who has opted for an interesting calendar change, he's shown solid form and will be interesting to watch throughout the week and the same could be said of Richie Porte, racing on "home" roads he is looking to repeat his 2013 and 2015 wins. He has looked to be in his last competitive miles last year but has since came back to take a dominant GC win in the Tour Down Under. The Tasmanian is very familiar with the roads that will decide this race and will be looking to boost his confidence ahead of a very important season.
He has another ressurging rider on a brilliant comeback in a new step in his career, Nairo Quintana must have been licking his lips seeing some of his main rivals log out of the race and is coming in perhaps as the big contender after what was an impressive to say the least month of February. The Arkea rider won the Provence and Haut Var both with dominant and spectacular climbing performances reminiscent of his career peak, and if he brings that form over we could see him as the main contender overall, he has Winner Anacona backing him up as he has in the last few years as a wonderful combo and Waren Barguil should be looking for a supporting role aswell. Their main opposition may come in the form of the ever present Bahrain squad, after a season start marked by an often unique quality in depth they come to France with the same set in mind, with Dylan Teuns and Pello Bilbao coming in as co-leaders after their Andalucia performances that were quite positive. They further have Damiano Caruso and Hermann Pernsteiner who can also play a role in the GC or even in strategical form.
On the French side there is national hero Julian Alaphillipe, he is understandibly coming in as an outsider after a slower season start than 2019, he is a mega rider but without his top form he isn't going to be able to top the other climbers in town, but if he does he is certainly to consider as the array of hilly stages and time-trial suit his skills very well. AG2R bring the strong duo of Romain Bardet and Pierre Latour, both have different skillsets that should make for an open aproach to the race, and we can only wait to see exactly what they can do. Cofidis bring Guillaume Martin, after a consistent season last year he said to be targeting specifical goals this season and no better way to do so then a reduced field in such an important race, the Frenchman will be proper motivated and has a set of mountain stages that suit him really well, he just has to hold his own in the time-trial.
There is a long list of outsiders looking for a good overall result, Bora for a start have the very strong duo of Patrick Konrad and Felix Grossschartner, both have tremendous quality but need their room for development, this race features nonetheless another opportunity for them to rank in a lot of points and prove their worth in the team, together with Max Schachmann who is actually a superb contender for many stages except for the queen stage, there he will probably struggle a lot but if he can perform brilliantly until then he can play a role in the GC. Sunweb bring Tiesj Benoot, NTT bring Ben O'Connor from a very important win in Bessèges and Roman Kreuziger, and last-minute call Circus also has Xandro Meurisse who will be looking out for another strong result this season.
The Sprinters
The sprinter field will also be quite packed, it hasn't taken such a hit and will feature a lot of names and their leadouts in quite great quality. After disaster struck UAE we can still be happy to have such a show coming for the fast arrivals, Bora perhaps the most interesting squad with Pascal Ackermann coming as lead sprinter but a surprise call for Peter Sagan may mix things up, will be interesting to see how the dynamics are. Trek also had a team rebuild with their classics team fully here, Edward Theuns has been struggling with a broken thumb but we could see the best of him as there won't be cobblestones disturbing him in the fast finishes, Trek is known for their premier leadout quality and having riders such as Stuyven and Pedersen to do the job or even try on their own could be dangerous. Deceuninck have also brought their classics roster as great importance which will give Sam Bennett quite a lot of firepower, the Irishman didn't struck gold in UAE but will be looking to make up for it and will have some huge support to help him. But these three teams aren't the only ones as Lotto Soudal also have a mega leadout, with Degenkolb coming in, it will be an adition to van der Sande and Kluge in helping out pocket rocket Caleb Ewan, looking to further spread his success that he's been having this last season.
The Italians will be in full charge, Elia Viviani for a start has been having a modest season so far but you never know when he'll strike back, NTT have Giacomo Nizzolo who has been flying this year, he will look to bring further wins into the team and with him are two sprinters who have also raised their arms this year in Max Walscheid and Ryan Gibbons, and Niccolo Bonifazio will also be on the lookout in those finishes. Cees Bol won in Algarve and will be looking to repeat his feat here with Michael Matthews as a substitute and a wildcard on the hillier stages, Nacer Bouhanni did the same in Provence and brings a broad aproach to results by Arkea, Danny van Poppel and Andrea Pasqualon will surely be Circus' main options in a fast squad and Bryan Coquard could be a wildcard in some finishes, he's been quite under the radar lately.
Time-trialists
As there is a time-trial it must also be mentioned importantly, some GC men may favour their chances at it but there are quite some strong specialists looking for success, I'd point out Victor Campenaerts as the most important seeing how well he's ridden in UAE, looks as sharp as an arrow, Deceuninck with their classics block bring riders as Yves Lampaert and Kasper Asgreen who will surely have a tilt in this day, Trek have Ryan Mullen although he may struggle with the climbing involved, Thomas de Gendt will be looking for another strong TT result, Bahrain have Jan Tratnik, and Sunweb have a very strong Soren Kragh Andersen.
Prediction Time
At the time of post, with less than 24 hours before the race start, Israel/EF/FDJ have not confirmed their squads. I'm not taking their riders into consideration below.
⭐⭐⭐ Quintana, Porte
⭐⭐ Teuns, Alaphillipe, Konrad
⭐ Bardet, Latour, Schachmann, Grossschartner, Nibali, Bilbao, Asgreen, G.Martin
I admit I am absolutely loving the Quintana I saw in February, and with many of his rivals sidelined here his confidence must be sky high. The Colombian is likely the strongest climber in the bunch, he is very experienced with crosswinds and can defend himself in the ITT after a successful partnership with Canyon, there's a lot of factor that play into a rider's psychologic and Quintana has the strongest set of anyone here.
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