It's the 19th September. After his debutant compatriot Tadej Pogacar crosses the finish line in an absolutely shocking performance in the final time-trial up to La Planche des Belles Filles the clock starts ticking... and ticking... Eventually some minutes later the grimacing figure of the man who seemingly dominated cycling's most reputated event for two weeks is seen coming up the brutal slopes of the now iconic climb.
As his teammates and staff looked up in despair and disapointment, the Tour de France had just been lost in what was on paper the Slovenian's preferred domain. The man who had just crossed the line 1:56 minutes slower than Pogacar looked like a rider we hadn't seen so far that year, with his race-debuted Lazer helmet looking all things but confortable and his hunched posture confirming what the clock was telling us. The Jumbo-Visma team had seemingly ridden a perfect racing, constantly and consistently protecting Roglic and his ambitions to win the general classification whilst at the same time gathering 3 stage wins and 11 days in the maillot jaune in what was a flawless exhibition rarely seen in Grand Tours, but what happened on the Vosges was something very little could've predicted.
Only on April 27th, this Tuesday did we get an actual explanation to what was likely the biggest single reason for this result, where Jumbo-Visma coach Mathieu Heijboer reveiled in an interview with French newspaper L'Equipe something that was until then somewhat unknown to public knowledge:
"Primož had fallen heavily at the Dauphiné, which completely deprived him of training on his time trial bike before the Tour. By the morning of La Planche, it had been six weeks since he had been on his machine..." - Mathieu Heijboer
The crash in question happened during the Criterium du Dauphiné's disastrous stage 4. Whilst young German Lennard Kämna took his first professional win, back in the peloton the crashes had big consequences as first, Steven Kruijswijk and Emanuel Buchmann both crashed out of the race, an accident which ended up costing the Dutchman the presence in the race and preventing the German from backing up a performance similar to his 2019's incredible ride into 4th place on the overall. The day had already seen TDF's defending champion Egan Bernal miss the call to the start line due to back issues - which have, aswell, prevented him from defending his title -
but what first seemed like an innocent event ended up bringing major consequences. Roglic had crashed, on his own apprently, with 71 kilometers remaining on a stage with heavy climbs still to ride, yet he rode into the finish surounded by his direct oponents in a show of confidence. The next morning that show was turnt on it's head as Roglic did not start, so as to prevent further damage to his injured hip. At the time it was not publicly known but this prevented Roglic from training on his time-trial bike until the Grand Départ in Nice, in total these were around 6 weeks without a single ride on his TT machine, time which ended up costing him the Tour de France surely as Roglic cracked under pressure on the final competitive day of the race, whilst Tadej Pogacar dismissed the need to do a recon ride in the morning as he had reportedly done so three times in antecipation to the race and took advantage of his brilliant form and incomprehensible confidence.
So... this brings up the question, why is it - in my opinion - a good option for Roglic to skip racing all together before his biggest goal?
Well, several reasons. The first one being that in the same interview Heijboer confirmed what we could visibly see which is that Roglic is capable of coming from training (and training camps) immediately in great form - 2018 was the last year where he didn't take a win in his opening race of the season - thus following the trend of the last few years where some of the emerging climbers tackle the big races with no racing kilometers in their legs and seem completely oblivious to that. In 2019 he dominated the UAE Tour in his season debut, last year he conquered the road nationals and later dominated his first stage-race of the season in the Tour de l'Ain too, before dominating this year's Paris-Nice (until he slid out on the final stage, causing him to loose the overall). Secondly it was the Dauphiné crash that really left a mark, and Roglic is no stranger to the taste of tarmac, obviously this reduction in racing calendar will mean there's a much smaller chance of him having an injury or a mishap right before his biggest goal again. There is the chance that he will ride his National championships, but that won't really make much of a difference in both preparation and risk of crashing.
Most importantly though it's a 3-week race, one where fatigue is a very important factor that needs to be managed in the best way possible throughout this time, where all things from rain to heat waves, crashes and even a rest day can cause a sudden bonk in a day where seemingly everything would go normal. Over the years riders learn from their mistakes, and certainly it's a risk Jumbo will take by not having Roglic race the months prior to the Tour but taking all things into consideration it seems to me like a rational decision, as the first meaningful GC challenge comes on stage 5 as the riders will tackle the 27 kilometers individual challenge into Laval but only on stage 8 will the peloton arrive to the mountains. By that time the racing rhythm will be on everyone's legs, and although in those particular stages it may not make a difference it will surely be a good sign for the Pyrinees, but specially as the Slovenian's worst nightmare will once again pop up which is a time-trial before getting to Paris.
In 2018 he lost his podium spot in the final time-trial to Espelette (31 kilometers), last year he lost the Tour in the same scenario and this year the same may happen again as stage 20 will feature the same 31 kilometers on the big French plains. When you look closely at his results you notice that trend of his where he struggles in time-trials in the third week, the answer as to why isn't exactly one I can talk of without evidence or insight knowledge but I do know that anxiety will be on his head when he gets to that start ramp in Libourne. But... maybe with this change of run-up to the Tour, he won't have to worry by the time he gets there.