Opening weekend! The month of February has been full of good cycling, and it will be the case all the way to the end with the start of the cobbled classics. To start it off, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, it's a rough classic in the bergs of Flandres and the final showdown usually comes down to the classic Muur de Geraardsbergen - Bosberg combination, before a flat run-up to Ninove.
The Route
It's almost a replica of last year's route, with cobbled sectors spread throughout the race, but in the secon half things get serious with the ascents in short succession with a little under 100Km to go having the Paddestraat to wrap it off, but the route won't get any easy with the Hostellerie and Valkenberg in a small transition zone into the final and decisive final sectors.
From there on the Wolvenberg/Kerkgate/Molenberg combo should open the flurry of attacks that are to come, start putting tactics up to play and for the real racing to start.
The Leberg is summiting with 40Km to go and should be a vital part of the route, it's a hard cobbled climb and sets up for the Berendries pitch very quickly, also quickly followed by the Elverenberg and a short cobbled sector, the favourites and teams with big numbers should put serious pressure here, and the race will likely be broken up by some.
But of course, what's made the Omloop route different in the last few years is the addition of the Muur-Bosberg combo. The Muur de Geraardsbergen is perhaps the most iconic climb in Flandres, it's the hardest one on the route and the main guns will likely try to put decisive attacks on the steep pitches here.
The final climb of the route is the Bosberg and like last year it summits with 13Km to go. It's a pure power climb, the rought part is around a 1-minute effort at 9% average, safe to say decisive attacks won't happen here, it's not usual to see it, but splits are possible, fatigue will build up, and as we know in the classics every moment counts.
The next few kilometers are through this road, straightforward, it could be the place for the decisive attacks, tactics play into part here more than power and attacks aren't easy to bring back.
And the last kilometers look like this, very fast, very hard to bring back moves both in group or in solo if they work well, the final kilometer is a little technical, and even if it comes down to a sprint it's gonna be more complicated than just power, positioning fight is essential.
The Weather
There is a breeze from the northeast. It may have an impact, although it isn't very strong it can play into the hand of bigger groups and against solo moves as the run-up to the finish will have a headwind.
Team Depth
There are some teams with incredible blocks for the classics. There are 4, and on this section I'll mention three of them, those are Trek, Deceuninck and AG2R. I will begin with the other two that are taking part in this race with several options though, DSM being the first one with a great block including experience and some very talented young guys, the lead should be split between two men who are firstly Soren Kragh Andersen, a rouleur, and Tiesj Benoot, a puncheur. Both will surely try to be and also make the big moves, they have a lot of support in equally talented riders in Casper Pedersen mainly, the Dane won Paris Tours last year and also Joris Nieuwenhuis will bring his CX form and technique to his advantage, besides Romain Bardet who isn't as experienced in the main cobbled races but is always an interesting rider. As for Lotto they've got an equally diverse team with Philippe Gilbert as the experienced leader, albeit probably he'll take a more hidden role and the lead should be shared between two riders that were flying in Bessèges, first one being Tim Wellens who's got explosiveness, a good sprint and also a big engine for these roads, and also Florian Vermeersch who as a neo-pro impressed last year in the cobbles and looks ready to tackle them again, Frederik Frison is also a nice outsider.
As for the big 3, Trek come as the defending champions. Jasper Stuyven more specifically, he looked superb and dominant last year before the spring, he is coming in again to lead alongside the likes of Mads Pedersen and Edward Theuns. They have a poweful and experienced setup behind them, but what makes this trio so dangerous is that they've all got a strong sprint, and Trek have a DS team full of men who know these roads like the back of their hand. The second, obviously, is Deceuninck. It's only domestique Tim Declerq finished 5th last year so yeah THIS is how strong they are. There really is no set leader because everyone can succeed, Davide Ballerini is going to be the rider that'll be saved throughout the day for sure, in great form and with a brutal sprint, whilst the rest of the team should be making and marking every single move throughout the final third of the stage. Julian Alaphilippe comes in with great form and is looking for vengeance after his last trip to Flandres resulted in a hard crash, Yves Lampaert is looking for vengeance after a runner-up placing last year, and then you've got the remainder of the classics block consisting of Zdenek Stybar who's also looking in great form, Kasper Asgreen who's got a very big engine and a solid sprint and also Florian Sénéchal who's got a threatening sprint for a classics rider, besides all of his obvious skills as a puncheur. Finally there's AG2R with their new block, an improved one from last year, the whole team is full of experienced riders but the leadership comes from the duo of Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen. They are debuting as teammates in the classics, however they train together for already a long time, alongside some more of their teammates, they've both got a solid sprint and a ton of experience and I'm very interested seeing how they'll race together.
Rogues
Now to call some of the following riders unsupported by their team isn't correct, but taking into account just how strong some teams are, by comparison these squad have inferior quality (but that does NOT mean their leader isn't capable of winning, obviously). Some teams will have more than one card to play which can come helpful and these include for example Bahrain who've got a good due with Dylan Teuns, capable of attacking, and Sonny Colbrelli who can race more conservatively, Ineos who've got Gianni Moscon in great form, Tom Pidcock still new to the team but no doubt has the quality to be up there, and perhaps Jhonatan Narvaez can surprise. You've got also Qhubeka being lead by Dimitri Claeys, with Victor Campenaerts also a possible joker for the race, definitely a rider that won't be covered and has a big engine, and also Intermarche coming in with a very diverse squad that includes Aimé de Gendt and Loic Vliegen as the likely leaders, but also with Andrea Pasqualon as a decent card to play in a chasing group sprint.
Some have a good sprint and can perhaps rely on it a bit, Nils Politt definetely has a good one and is coming in good form, although Sagan is not here Bora have a very strong block built around the German, and Movistar find themselves in the same position with Ivan Cortina debuting in the cobbles with the Spanish team and looking to prove his worth from the gun. There are some very experiences riders like Sep Vanmarke who'll be leading Israel and Stefan Kung who's leading Groupama, both need to go on the offensive to win the race, Jumbo have a team without it's main cards but Timo Roosen should be the leader and an outsider, and the same can be said of young Belgian Arjen Livyns who'll be leading Bingoal.
Sprinter to take it?
The wind somewhat favours a group sprint. Now, it's a very long way to call the fast men the favourites, but they can get a good finish if they can pass the final climbs in a good group, and in both ways these men should be attacked. Mainly, these should be the UAE riders, the team already had Alexander Kristoff as a leader but this year they have reinforced their taste with another sprinter coming in Matteo Trentin. Kristoff is good at hiding himself, Trentin on the other hand hasn't been racing smartly lately, but they can definitely find themselves in good position and may take advantage of it being a relative "preparation" race. But they aren't the only ones, there are several classics riders with a good sprint, but when you've got for example Christophe Laporte, who is in great form, it's a bit harder to run against. The Frenchman will lead Cofidis and like B&B Hotels, the lineup is spearheaded by a sprinter, Bryan Coquard leads the latter. Together with them there's Jasper Philipsen who is coming in to lead Alpecin after leaving the UAE Tour early, and also Alex Aranburu who isn't a specialist but will be Astana's best option for a result this weekend.
Prediction Time
⭐ Naesen, Asgreen, Stybar, Laporte, Philipsen, Trentin, Colbrelli, Politt, Cortina, Benoot, Wellens
Deceuninck have a ridiculously strong team here and several of their riders look in great form already. They will be agressive and they have plenty cards to play, still I believe success may come from an attack by Julian Alaphilippe at some point, and his teammates will go on uncoordinating the chasing groups. But even in a small group finish he has the sprint to take the win.
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