The year is 1907, in the harsh weather of Liguria the Frenchman Lucien Petit-Breton won the first official edition of Milano-Sanremo. Little did he know he had done history as the first winner of what would become one of the most iconic and cherished cycling races in the world. Up until today there were 112 editions of what is the first monument of cycling, nowadays it's considered the sprinter's monument but the last few years have proved otherwise, so what do we have on the menu this time around?
The Route
The biggest pro race in the calendar! Albeit having a slightly different route there 299 kilometers (plus neutral start) will heavily weigh on everyone's legs by the end, which has it's usual features except for the first climb of the day.
The profile looks misleading it isn't an actual mountain, also I know it's not too focused but I can't do more at the moment. But you get the picture, it's essentially the same as Turchino with a very long false-flat rise until the final couple kilometers where some slightly moderate gradients are found. Nothing big, it's positioned 127 kilometers away from the finish, the descent does feature in it's beginning some sketchy switchbacks, but unless it rains there should be no issue for the peloton.
Moving from there there's essentially the race's traditional route through the Ligurian sea, includes the Tre Capi:
Capo Mele - 1,9Km; 4.2%; 51.8Km to go
Capo Cerve - 1.9Km; 2.8%; 46.8Km to go
Capo Berta - 1.8Km; 6.7%; 39Km to go
Quickly the riders will move on to the final and decisive features.
The Cipressa is 5.6Km at an average gradient of 4.1% it doesn't make for a particularly hard climb, but taking into account when the riders top it they'll have 277Km already in the legs the climb will feel much harder than it actually is.
It doesn't usually see attacks, but it is a familiar image to see the teams with puncheurs and punchy sprinters to come to the front and push the pace. The purest sprinters try to remain hidden, but always well positioned as the descent from Cipressa is very technical, so not only will there be the teams trying to suffocate the sprinters early on as there will be the fight for positioning before the climb and in the summit of it, making for a very nervous and fast passing.
And the final climb is the Poggio di Sanremo, the hardest easy climb in the world! Like everything in this race, it is influenciated by the distance, 293Km ridden at the summit. It is mostly a climb in false flat roads, starting with a set of bends still very near the sea, but in the last 800 meters the steepest ramp in it comes, a short one but 8% of gradient, and it's a place regularly chosen by riders to make a final attack.
It's a very hard climb to ride in such speed, not all sprinters usually make it through. There were editions where some pure sprinters were able to go through still in the group, but in the very least it is a benefit to ride strongly so as to be well positioned for another very technical descent.
And just as important as the climb is the descent, it's quite a technical one which allows some recovering after the climb, and it's a big threat if anyone gets to the bottom solo, no surprise as in the base of it there are only 2200 meters to the line.
As it's been restablished in 2015, Via Roma will be the place where the winner will be crowned. The finish is familiar already, a flat straightforward road meaning leadouts and chasing are still very possible which is an advantage for the sprinters, but for that they need good support and a smart sense of positioning. And remember, a sprint after 7 hours of racing is different than after 4/5.
The Weather
The tempearutes will be coldish but not too much, but the wind is important here. We will have moderate-strong tailwind throughout most of the race, it'll come from the northeast throughout most of the day turning into eastern as you get closer to the finish which quite literally is the direction the race will follow. Although the mountains may cover some of it, the left side of the road will often be completely exposed. Cipressa and Poggio will have crosswinds to it with tailwind between and after the climbs (and the capi too), it favours the attackers as the speeds will be higher and there won't be such a huge advantage to slipstreaming in the areas the sprinters have to recover.
How do you beat Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert
This is the big question and what most will be thinking at the start line tomorrow. How do you do it? They surely don't have issues with the weather, endurance, climbing, sprinting, tactics, etc. In fact Milano-Sanremo is one of the most tactically closed races on the calendar every year the big guns wait for that specific section of the Poggio to attack, the puncheurs/climbers try to create gaps, the sprinters try to hang on, simple.
But the question then lies on how do you do it (of course not assuming they'll crash out or have a mistimed mechanical) and the answer is... good question. I personally struggle to see how, both are coming in great form, both will love the grades of the Poggio and they will surely both be on the attack, cause splits and (perhaps alone) fight for the win, they can both sprint very well and have beaten each other in the past, they don't ride conservatively so they will surely be working together in a finale that is far from ideal to the chasers. Wout van Aert comes from an incredibly impressive - even for his standards - Tirreno Adriatico and Mathieu van der Poel comes from equally impressive wins in a group sprint, a gravel race and a brutal hilly stage. Both look in peak form, now let's see what scenarios they can be beaten.
Someone clings to their wheel on the Poggio
Perhaps the most likely scenario is that some riders manage to stay in very close proximity to them in the uphill, it's possible as the decisive effort is usually just under a minute long. In a sprint none (yes I said it) of these riders can beat that duo, but there's a chance one of them manages to get a split and have a crack on those final couple minutes of racing. This is essentially I have in the description below, but these are those most likely to go up the Poggio quicker and obviously Julian Alaphilippe is the main card, and the one who we expect to indeed be able to do it as every year he is in the mix and quite usually he's the one triggering it. He's won here in the past, he'll want to do it again but for that he needs to dial in everything perfectly. Of those who can do the same it's not such a likely scenario but they can also get away from the peloton like Max Schachmann who just took his second Paris-Nice title who's likely the main card alongside Michael Matthews who also loves little climbs like these. Furthermore Davide Formolo has shown brilliant legs in Tirreno-Adriatico and is UAE's main card if it doesn't come down to a sprint, Ineos and Qhubeka have an interesting duo in Michael Kwiatkowski (not seemingly coming with the best form) and Tom Pidcock (may struggle with the distance and the shallow Poggio grade) for the first, Simon Clarke and Michael Gogl in the latter who come in good form and will be decent outsiders.
The "Gent-Wevelgem" scenario
The riders above are also included in this list, but this one is more built up of rouleurs, who can also settle in some chasing group and, as the name suggests, can have the luck of getting a gap in the final few meters and having their really lucky day in not having anyone chasing for some seconds. Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen will be a looking for an agressive racing, they have a decent sprint but like all on this list aswell they aren't able to beat the big men. You've got some classics experts who will be looking for that opportunity like Matej Mojoric, Alberto Bettiol, Tim Wellens, Soren Kragh Andersen and Ivan Cortina, all of them are brilliant rouleurs. You've got 2018's decisive duo in Krists Neilands coming in great form leading Israel and Vincenzo Nibali who on paper could be leading Trek, but I think the team would have better weapons in debutant Quinn Simmons and Jasper Stuyven.
Somehow the group connects and a bunch sprint for the win happens
But perhaps the most likely scenario to beat them is... a bunch sprint. Now I know what you're thinking, it's really unlikely yes, and the weather won't help, but a bunch sprint is in theory the best scenario where they'd have tough competition in riders like Arnaud Démare or Alexander Kristoff who have won here on the past and will be looking for a race as conservative as possible, UAE specially has they have got Fernando Gaviria in the team aswell, together with Lotto who've got Caleb Ewan and let's face it, Deceuninck who've got Sam Bennett and Davide Ballerini will all be surely praying for an alliance and enough time to bring back any attack in order to bring home a small group sprint, it's not an impossible scenario.
You've got some sprinters who are very well suited for this classic as they like the climbs and have the fast edge to get a good result in the end, they include some riders like Andrea Vendrame, Alex Aranburu, Sonny Colbrelli, Andrea Pasqualon, Hugo Hofstetter but perhaps mainly Christophe Laporte who had a couple of near-misses in Paris-Nice but is clearly in a brilliant stint of form and is one of the riders that needs to be attacked, although Cofidis also have a card to play in Elia Viviani.
And then we find some more pure sprinters, who occasionally get in the mix and if they have a good day and get over the Poggio in good position, name riders like local Niccolo Bonifazio, Qhubeka's Giacomo Nizzolo and Arkea's Nacer Bouhanni. Of course, because it's necessary to also mention, there's Peter Sagan who is still recovering from ilness and doesn't seem to have good form, but few riders know this race as well as him.
Prediction Time
🌟 Schachmann, Matthews, Formolo, Cortina, Kristoff, Démare, Ewan, S.Bennett
He won last year for some reason. Brilliant endurance, brilliant climbing ability, brilliant engine in case of a solo move and a brilliant sprint. He has no weak spots, Wout van Aert is the defending champion and he's got very strong competition but I believe he will take another one.
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