The year is 1907, in the harsh weather of Liguria the Frenchman Lucien Petit-Breton won the first official edition of Milano-Sanremo. Little did he know he had done history as the first winner of what would become one of the most iconic and cherished cycling races in the world. Up until today there were 111 editions of what is the first monument of cycling, and under special conditions this year it takes place in August, far from the regular spring weather the riders are used to and also far from the different route that's taken, although the begining and finale of the race will be known to those who come to Italy every March.
The Route
You may not be familiar with this profile, in fact why would you? Why would I? This was never the plan even after the race had a new date confirmed, and although a big part of this race is it's traditional route along the coast of the Ligurean sea, I don't mind at all this little switch for a year, that was caused by several mayors of cities where the race passed refusing to take in the race because... they didn't want beach access to be restricted... their loss though!
The route has in fact grown, it's now 299.4Km long with 2727m+ of climbing, when for example last year it was 291Km long with 2059m+ of climbing. And that extra climbing comes rather later into the race, with the Colle di Nava summiting with 90Km to go, although there's not much climbing in there the descent is technical and steep at first, and it goes all the way down to Imperia near the base of Cipressa where the climbing will start right away.
No capi this year, but hopefully it should help the show!
The Cipressa is 5.6Km at an average gradient of 4.1% it doesn't make for a particularly hard climb, but taking into account when the riders top it they'll have 270Km already in the legs the climb will feel much harder than it actually is.
It doesn't usually see attacks, but it is a familiar image to see the teams with puncheurs and punchy sprinters to come to the front and push the pace. The purest sprinters try to remain hidden, but always well positioned as the descent from Cipressa is very technical, so not only will there be the teams trying to suffocate the sprinters early on as there will be the fight for positioning before the climb and in the summit of it, making for a very nervous and fast passing.
And the final climb is the Poggio di Sanremo, the hardest easy climb in the world! Like everything in this race, it is influenciated by the distance, 293Km ridden at the summit. It is mostly a climb in false flat roads, starting with a set of bends still very near the sea, but in the last 800 meters the steepest ramp in it comes, a short one but 8% of gradient, and it's a place regularly chosen by riders to make a final attack (i.e Sagan in 2017).
It's a very hard climb to ride in such speed, not all sprinters usually make it through. There were editions where some pure spriters were able to go through still in the group, but in the very least it is a benefit to ride strongly so as to be well positioned for another very technical descent.
And just as important as the climb is the descent, it's quite a technical one which allows some recovering after the climb, and it's a big threat if anyone gets to the bottom solo, no surprise as in the base of it there are only 2200 meters to the line.
As it's been restablished in 2015, Via Roma will be the place where the winner will be crowned. The finish is familiar already, a flat straightforward road meaning leadouts and chasing are still very possible which is an advantage for the sprinters, but for that they need good support and a smart sense of positioning. And remember, a sprint after 7 hours of racing is different than after 4/5.
The Weather
Sub-30 degree temperature and a little bit of southwestern wind. Means generally a headwind throughout most of the race but it'll be quite gentle so don't expect it to make much of a difference.
More climbing and 6-rider teams
Yes this is maybe something that will change the race completely that isn't widely talked off, the team numbers that is. As for the climbing it there's a chance that it'll kick in some more fatigue, every single bit will be felt in the end of 300 Kilometers of racing, there's an extra 700 meters of climbing and most of it is on the addition of the Niella Belbo which is a climb summiting with 140Km to go. It's 13.3Km at 3.5%, not steep but there's some distance and although it's very far from the finish I expect someone to come to the front in there and drill it, specially the teams that have intentions of attacking late in the race.
Then there's something very important which is that, in order to allow Androni and Bardiani in the race aswell the organizers have decided on getting the teams down to just 6 riders per team. Although for most it will make very little difference, for the sprinter teams every single domestique is worth a mine of gold, which means all of them will be a little less fragile than planned, which favours the teams that plan on attacking.
And remember, Milano-Sanremo is the race of a half a dozen finish lines: Bottom of Cipressa, top of Cipressa, bottom of Poggio, top of Poggio, Via Roma and now the summit of the Colle di Nava.
Every one of these points are gonna see a mad dash to be well positioned, so when you start adding that up with the distance, it's gonna be carnage isn't it?
The fast men
So let's start with the sprinters, after all they've won 6 of the last 10 editions of this monstruous race. So much to approach, let's start with the eternal second Peter Sagan who is the sole leader of the Bora squad, he's never won this race but has finished 5 times in the first 4 places. He has everything to win this race, he always does, but he hasn't yet had luck fall on his side, will this be his year? Because on the opposite side of the spectrum there are two riders who have won the race, first being Alexander Kristoff who had a great season last year and seems to always be a rider capable of thriving in long races, it has over his career net him several wins and Sanremo was no exception, he has Fernando Gaviria as a second option in case of a sprint in the team, and the other rider is 2016 winner Arnaud Démare who is coming from a great win in Milano Torino and looks exceptionally strong, Groupama have over the years raced very well in here and Démare is the team's sole focus for a result.
Lotto Soudal come with a couple options but most notably is Caleb Ewan, he won the bunch sprint for second in the year Nibali won he's proven to be able to deal with the distance, for sure he's able to deal with the climbs and his sprint is as strong as any in pro road cycling. Lotto have a second option in Philipe Gilbert who is looking for a final monument win, but I reckon the team should rely on the pocket rocket. Keeping up with the subject of sprinters not having freedom I would point Sam Bennett very clearly, Deceuninck have a mega team but the Irish needs to be at his absolute best in order to have team support going into the final kilometers, if he can though he's an interesting rider to consider. There's Cees Bol, a very enigmatic rider in this kind of race who has several riders in his team who will ultimately have the team focus on attacking, but the Dutchman is a raw talent and has a mega strong sprint.
Cofidis come with Elia Viviani who's been having a complicated season so far, however I still have great belief in the Italian, racing at home and in his Deceuninck days he's done incredible things, he's looking to turn his season around and will be hungry for a strong result alongside Cristophe Laporte, and the other Italian hopes will mostly rely on Giacomo Nizzolo who has given very good reasons to be in a tightly protected role by NTT and also Bahrain's Sonny Colbrelli who's taken a win recently and is another rider perfectly suited for this race. There's some more Italian names, but you have to keep reading to reach them!
The attackers?
Which I can start off with, firstly is CCC's scary classics duo of Matteo Trentin and Greg van Avermaet, together they've net a scary amount of good results in the last year and they compliment each other perfectly, Trentin is known to put in too much effort into his moves, so maybe having the Olympic champion with him will allow for a better tactical choice. The other is obviously 2018 winner Vincenzo Nibali, looking very focused on taking another win, he's had his lightning strike two years ago but if there's anyone who knows how to prepare for a race it's the Sicilian. Representing UAE is Davide Formolo, second in Strade Bianche last week and is flying, this isn't the race that best suits him he's not exactly a rouler but he has form on his side as I assume has Tadej Pogacar, opting for quite an Italian start to the season but I reckon the team's chances will rely more on their sprinters. Finally there's also Alberto Bettiol of EF Education and he is actually someone who can make a difference in the Poggio, he's got Simon Clarke and we've seen these too always present in important race months over this and last season, I'm interested in what they can do.
Then there's puncheurs with a strong sprint starting with defending champion Julian Alaphilippe, I don't think he's having the same form as last year and Deceuninck have other options such as Bennett, but from Kasper Asgreen, Zdenek Stybar and Bob Jungels I would expect one of them to also be there in the finale with great legs. Cyclocross superstars are also to be mentioned here by the Frenchman, firstly Mathieu van der Poel who's debuting on the race and is had as a main favourite, however as you saw in Strade Bianche team is very important and you need to have a perfect day or else you won't be close to the win. Who can say with confidence that he's ready is Wout van Aert though, few words for such a big man, he's won Strade Bianche in impressive fashion and finished on the podium in Milano Torino, he is as dialed as any rider could be and he's the sole leader, he can do just about anything so his issue is wether he times his bullets well or not. Then there's last year's runner-up Oliver Naesen who has a strong sprint, a strong climbing capacity and a massive aerobic engine, he's almost nailed it last year but this year I dont think he's below his level of last year, then there's 2017's winner Michal Kwiatkowski, his form didn't look on point last week but his immense talente means he can never be discarded. Finally there's another big name, another perfect name for this race which is Michael Matthews, he's actually only been on the podium once but every year he's a serious threat to a win and this year Sunweb bring a scary strong squad that not only includes Matthews and Bol, but also Tiesj Benoot and mainly Soren Kragh Andersen as riders capable of attacking.
In theory I can also consider this man but he's still rather new to the big step which is Alex Aranburu, I don't know if he can handle the pressure and lenght of the race but he's sure got the climbing capacity to be there in the end and he has a strong sprint, but the team should be more focused in putting Alexey Lutsenko in a position to attack on the Poggio. The two other names have the need for a solo move to be able to win the race, firstly Michael Valgren of NTT if he has the legs, secondly Dylan Teuns who has Colbrelli in the team, although from Ivan Cortina and Matej Mohoric the team could find some more options.
Some more names
There's lots more riders that deserve a good mention, it's just hard because of the startlist quality but I reckon some of these names could really make it into the Top10, or better, if the situation fits for them.
There are some sprinters looking forward to this finish, and probably a more calm race like Israel's Davide Cimolai and home rider Nicolo Bonifazio who could be interesting wildcards. If there was no injury associated with his season I would also put Matteo Moschetti on the big list, however I dont know his form but he's on the startlist so I have to name him there, as Nacer Bouhanni who will always be looking for a return onto the big step. From the sprinters I would mention with a very good name Danny van Poppel, Circus have some very good riders and the Dutch has good climbing legs and a strong sprint as he's shown in Milano-Torino with a 5th place.
Lastily two wildcard names who've been doing very well in last period of time who are Giovanni Visconti and also Jhonatan Restrepo.
Prediction Time
🌟 Gaviria, Matthews, SK.Andersen, Stybar, Nibali, GV.Avermaet, S.Bennett, Naesen
I'm gonna go with Wout. I'll be honest my first thought would be Arnaud Démare, I somewhat get the feeling that there's a lot of interests this year and some teams could bring it back for a sprint, but then I reconsidered thinking of the 6-rider teams. I think it will make a meaningful difference, and it will be very hard to control the race, and the extra climbing could tilt the balance towards the attackers, so... pick the strongest puncheurs/sprinter combo.
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