The climax of the Ardennes, this sunday we have the third monument of the year which gives the puncheurs and the climbers the favouritism when it comes to taking a special title of La Doyenne, a race that last year had one of the most dramatic finales there are.
The Route
Over 4200 meters of climbing in this one. There are no long climbs, no mountains, it's a pure grind throughout the Ardennes up and down all day long for a dreadful 259 kilometers in distance. It's a big one I don't need to tell you that, it's still a race that despite the route changes should see the main favourites all waiting for a specific point which is indeed the final climb. That's not exactly the most exciting prospect but the other riders' jobs is to make sure they can counter that, and until they get there there are several important points:
The Côte de Stockeu is placed early in the final sequence of climbs that slowly tilt down towards Liège. It stands 80Km away from the finish and it's the steepest climb of the day, it's surrounded by climbs and it's a place where sharp moves can completely break the peloton. Tactical moves will be coming at this time of the race, unless the pace is suffocating which would equally destroy the peloton.
Some more climbs will be faced in the meantime but the second point where there will be a full-on leadout to the base of the climb is on La Redoute. A classic in this race, the riders will enter it quite gassed already as the leadout is usually furious and the gradients are quite hard, specially on the second half of the ascent. It summits with just 35 kilometers to the finish, we can see some big moves in it and the main men may make a crucial move if they see they're in trouble and need to chase back.
Ideally for them though they will wait for the Côte de la Roche Aux Faucons. It's another brute, 1.3Km at 10.5% is a pure anaerobic climb and will be one of the final places, but the main one where differences will be made between the favourites. The climb sees it's rougher gradients near it's summit, which comes with a mere 13 kilometers to the line.
Afterwards there's a very small descent and another small uphill pitch of 1.2Km at 6.3% which isn't categorized (or named) but that doesn't matter when you're riding up it. It has some rough ramps up to 10% which after a full-out effort will hurt like hell. The good news is these are the last uphill pitches of the race, and if you're solo off the front chances are you will win the whole thing.
This pitch summits with 10 kilometers to go and from there on there's a slight downhill section before plummeting down to Liège via a sketchy descent, it only flattens out in the final couple kilometers and the sprint, if it does happen, will be on a pan-flat wide road by the river.
The Weather
Solid sprint temperatures and sunny weather. The wind will be noticeable, it'll come from the northeast and will have moderate intensity, the climbs aren't very exposed but we will see a head/crosswind in La Redoute and Roche aux Faucons the most important ascents, and the run-up to the descent into Liège is also in a headwind. Not the best of news for those looking to attack.
So what if the headwind decides the race?
I think it will. Not massive of course, but that headwind will be mentioned in every morning bus meeting. In the climbs it won't make a huge difference but it will overall block the big moves from coming. Obviously there are outsiders who can have some freedom and a small chance of winning from an earlier move, but I expect Roche aux Faucons to be the first point the big favourites put their nose in the wind. The wind can very well destroy the chances of those in front over the summit of the steep pitch, and there are some kilometers where moves can be brought back. Surprisingly (or maybe not) Julian Alaphilippe is perhaps the rider who will like this scenario more. Sure you've got some teams with fast men like BikeExchange being lead by Michael Matthews, Esteban Chaves and Lucas Hamilton will provide important support, and also Astana who may have in Alex Aranburu their best card to play specially with this weather, Jakob Fuglsang, Alexey Lutsenko and Omar Fraile will be able to help this cause but also be a part of possibly dangerous moves. These are the two fastest men, but the Frenchman leading Deceuninck may be the one most benefited as this wind will mean attacks from the Slovenians are sure to not come earlier in the day, and in the steep pitches of Roche aux Faucons he'll be in his field. The Belgian team is an expert on these races, he'll have the support of João Almeida and Mauri Vansevenant who for sure can also play a big role in the final result, but overall it's just an incredibly strong squad capable of everything.
Slovenian Threat
His main threats come from the Slovenians exactly. Primoz Roglic was very close to beating him on the Mur wednesday and the route does favour him a bit more with the amount of climbing throughout the day. Roglic isn't as explosive but that doesn't seem to be an issue to him, the defending champion has a mean sprint even in the puncheurs' field and is making his final race before the Tour de France. On the other side there's Tadej Pogacar, he hasn't participated in any of the Ardennes but is still one of the men to beat tomorrow, non-surprisingly due to his immense talent and how close he was from the win last year. Alongside Roglic they'll be the ones who have to attack Alaphilippe and cause the most damage, UAE has more cards to play though, although not in top form they'll still be helpful as Marc Hirschi and Davide Formolo, with a very strong team overall like Deceuninck.
Attack Mode
Of course, the threat doesn't just come from them. On the climbs there will be competition, Movistar for a first have the 4-time winner, turning 41 on the day Alejandro Valverde, the Spaniard is back to great form in the last few weeks and is a threat to the win of the race in this form, he's the man who knows how to win this race the best. On the climb there may very well be attacks from the likes of Michael Woods and David Gaudu who are quite dangerous in these steep explosive climbs, they have the skillset to ride the classics and both have a decent palmares in them. With sole leaders you've got men like Warren Barguil who's also on a brilliant run of form and is one very strong classics specialist, finishing 5th in Fleche Wallone, Guillaume Martin who'll be leading Cofidis and Bauke Mollema who should have the reigns of Trek's squad. Tim Wellens also is showing his classic style attacking early on, I believe the same will happen again.
With some very strong depth you've got Ineos. The true danger from them comes from a full-blown climber squad featuring Michal Kwiatkowski, Richard Carapaz and Adam Yates, all of them are a real threat if they find themselves on a good day and get a gap in front. You've got Bora, Max Schachmann should be their leader seeing his great performance in Amstel and the team also features Ide Schelling, Patrick Konrad and Wilco Kelderman as cards to play early on which is no doubt the best strategy the German team can play. You've got Bahrain being lead by Dylan Teuns, there are viable options also in Matej Mohoric, Wout Poels and Jack Haig who in their best day are good options for a Top10, AG2R who have Benoit Cosnefroy and Greg van Avermaet set to be their biggest cards but the team features some more interesting names, and EF who've got Sergio Higuita and Simon Carr set to lead in a classic that favourites them both. Furthermore you've got some riders who can surprise like DSM's Tiesj Benoot, Intermarche's Quinten Hermans and also Alpecin's 19-year old Ben Tullet who's been a brilliant surprise so far in the classics.
Prediction Time
⭐ Matthews, Fuglsang, Vansevenant, Hirschi, Gaudu, A.Yates, Carapaz, Schelling, Cosnefroy, Higuita
I think experience is key. Although he hasn't yet taken a win (looking at you 2020) Julian Alaphilippe has the legs to win here. He's a pure classics specialist, he's in a classics specialist team, he's got all the weapons to take this again and the weather favouring him, so as long as he sprints in a straight line he's the man to beat.
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