With the Giro underway and the Ardennes also peaking this weekend (with Amstel cancelled) we are set for a great day's racing. The puncheurs and the climbers will come forward for what is the third monument of the season this year.
The Route
With 257 kilometers on the road and almost 4300 meters of climbing, without any mountain to be climbed, you just know that it's a brutal day. The riders make the race, but here there really isn't much they can control! Let's go over some of the main climbs.
The Cote de Stockeu is the steepest climb on the route, quite a hard grim one at fact, it isn't placed in a particularly dangerous place of the route but it is inserted in the early part of the final sequence of climbs. It summits with 78Km to go and can be a place where strategical moves can cause a lot of havoc.
The Col du Rosier is the longest climb of the race and also the highest point, it's a long-shot but a place where the climbers should set a high pace from the bottom and wear out the sharper more explosive riders. It summits with 59Km to go, should be an interesting climb in the race as it's a different kind of effort then the short steep pitches.
La Redoute is just 35Km away from the finish and will be a dangerous climb, possibly for long-distance attacks, deorganization and putting riders in front for tactical purposes, it's a very very rough one and should thin out the bunch even more!
And the queen climb the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons, pivotal point in the race, final categorized climb to attack. The gradients are quite hard and it's long enough to smash the peloton, it summits just 13Km away from the finish and will antecede a quick descent and another short uphill pitch that summits with 10Km to go. These climbs will set the final gaps, afterwards it's a mostly descending route back to Liège where the winner will be crowned.
The descent is a bit technical, has some sketchy pitches specially if it's humid or wet as you've seen last year with Fuglsang, the run-up to the line is shorter this year which means gaps over the final climbs should be decisive.
The Weather
They may be lucky if they don't get rain, but it will nevertheless be a brutal day. Very very strong wind from the southwest, means that most of the way into Bastogne will have headwinds but from there on, strong tail and crosswinds will be present. Also it means a pure tailwind over the top of the final pitch of climbing, if there's someone solo it's an assured win.
The pure puncheurs
Coming in after an incredible win in the worlds, and with a fairly similar finish it's only fair to dictate Julian Alaphilippe as the man to bead tomorrow. The competition is high and wide but the Frenchman is in form and is motivated. After saving himself by not racing Fleche he'll be ready and has a team to defend his ambitions. With the race's history in crowning puncheurs it's only fair to put them to the fore, in the worlds we've had Marc Hirschi, Fleche Wallone winner and season revelarion and Michal Kwiatkowski who's in great form, both could be the biggest rivals to Alaphilippe as very explosive riders with great descending and sprint capacities. Behind them there's pure puncheurs Benoit Cosnefroy who could struggle with the ammount of climbing, but if he finds himself on a good day and good position can give a lot of fight to the previous names, he likes the steep climbs and the final one is just like that.
If the weather turns rough, which likely it will there's some good names that I would like to mention. Even if it doesn't rain Lotto Soudal winner Tim Wellens is definetely one to consider, riding at home and rising in form a bit, Michael Valgren and Gorka Izagirre are the other two names to put in here as riders in good form that love the rain and the tough conditions, the race isn't too hard for them and they won't have any pressure on their side, they can ride wheels and use their bullets in the best way possible, or on the other side they can also move out of the pack and not be chased with intention. Max Schachmman leading Bora is another big name to consider despite not looking as sharp as he actually is, and Loic Vliegen is another big wildcard to place onto the list.
The climbers?
However as last year's edition in a route very similar to this, the punchy climbers can win this aswell, and there's lots of them in great form, coming from the Tour and most of them having here their last goal of the season I'm sure we'll see some crazy action. For a starters the whole podium of the Tour is coming in and coming in still carrying form, Primoz Roglic finished 5th in the worlds showing he's still on top form and he's capable of riding these shorts climbs very well, and can solo very dangerously aswell as sprint (although it's a tough competition when it comes to sprinting), Tadej Pogacar sacrificed himself for Roglic's sake there, but in Fleche he looked quite good again and will like the extra amount of climbing here, they can work together and plan something out. Richie Porte, Bahrain with Mikel Landa (doubt) and Damiano Caruso are more pure climbers, not classics men, but they've been riding super well and could be interesting outsiders for the race tomorrow specially the Italian.
On the other side there's some climbers that are doing very well, Warren Barguil and Dan Martin have finished in the Top5 of Fleche, they are quite explosive and are clearly in great form after gaining it in the Tour, Guillaume Martin has also done an amazing worlds race in support of Alaphilippe and could get a privileged role as a non-marked rider in here.
There's some more big names in EF coming with a very strong team, one that should support the ambitions of Canadian Michael Woods who finished third in Liège and also Rigoberto Uran, who looked really sharp this week and I reckon that with a good tactical race he can also be a good contender for the podium. Adam Yates is also set to race, hasn't done so since the Tour where he was strong but he's someone who doesn't need racing to get in form, he likes the steep climbs, and finally Groupama who have Valentin Madouas and Rudy Molard who can ride really well on their day.
Some fast men!
Of course they are puncheurs but alongside Alaphilippe their the fastest men who will target a strong result here, and can't be dragged to the line. Firstly Mathieu van der Poel, late addition to the startlist, just some hours ago he's won the stage and overall in the BinkBank Tour after an incredibly solo ride, he may be a bit fatigued for tomorrow but at the same time he's showing incredible form, he's a joker but one that must seriously be taken into account, and one that isn't afraid to attack from far and mix things up immensely. The other is Greg van Avermaet, anoter name in great form, that loves long grinding days, he'll lead CCC and is a dangerous man to take to the final climbs, he's got a strong sprint and can handle the beating that is such a hard race.
Prediction Time
🌟 Roglic, Woods, Schachmann, Caruso, Uran, A.Yates, Cosnefroy
He's the man to beat but he must be very very confident coming into tomorrow, and fresh too. He has a team to keep it all together if necessary and is the sharpest guy for Roche-aux-Faucons, and I imagine that the same way Fuglsang did last year he can go solo somewhere before the final descent where with no doubt he'd be able to keep and protect his gap to win Liège for the first time.
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