Le Samyn. The continuation of my non-WT previews, a beautiful race that is a part of the Belgian spring semi-classics which usually features a circuit finish around the small town of Dour, by the French border. Although it includes some riders like Arnaud Démare and Niki Terpstra in it's winner list, the race usually features the top classics riders of the PCT in the first places, occasionally with the presence of some World Tour teams who also look to take a win in this special race.
The Route
The race is 205 kilometers in distance and around 1400 meters of climbing. Not a very hilly race, but not a flat one by any means. It's a race of two halves, the first one being almost completely flat with no major features, and the second one being a series of loops in the final circuit. The finish line will be passed 4 times, the cobbled sectors and small bergs will be ridden 5 times though.
The circuit is 26.5Km long, nothing big, but a nice little loop that includes everything in it. The circuit begins with a little flat section before quickly going into the first - and biggest - cobbled section in the race, that is the Rue du Vert Pignon, finishes with 21 kilometers to go and is 1600 meters long in a smooth field road, followed by a long stretch of road that tilts slightly down until reaching the body of the circuit.
15.5Km to go summits the little Côte de la Roquette, a wide smooth cobbled road up to the town of Montignies-sur-Roc, quickly followed by the Chemin de Wihéries which gives the true image of the race which are those narrow cobbled sectors on residential areas, it finishes with 14.6Km to go and is just a small but dangerous section of 500 meters. From there on it'll open a bit, there's a chance for regrouping before tackling the final 10kms which will then be followed by the Côte des Nonettes, a short uphill grind which is ideal for a sharp attack that can easily break up groups, but if things are still quite settled there's a chance for regrouping before the final decisive section of the race.
The 700 meters of cobbles in the Rue de Belle Vue will be dreadfull, it's not an easy sector and the entrance speed isn't the highest, it's a good opportunity and perhaps the last to create gaps on the base of power. From there on there'll be around 4 kilometers to go, they will have the slightest of uphill gradients, although it barely counts as a climb it's a brutal race and any gradient will hurt. That will include a little section coming into Dour that has some 5% gradients followed by some technical corners, it's definitely a section for attacks, specially for those that aren't so confident in the sprint. The finish line is positioned a little further from the town center this year, around 500 meters, but the run-up to the finish is very similar nonetheless with very slight uphill grades all the way to the line.
Below you'll find screenshots of all of the essential sections of the circuit.
*Map of the final circuit
*Rue du Vert Pignon
The Weather
Nice spring temperatures and a small southern breeze. Nothing big, can really help a more bunched up finish.
Will van der Poel race to win?
Yes I do mean this seriously. His plan for KBK was obvious before the race, he was going to attack from far, it didn't work out because only a single rider went with him, but he himself said the plan was to attack and give an easier ride for Tim Merlier the problem is Merlier was nowhere to be seen (surprisingly, like many other sprinters who climb quite well). The team is coming to Le Samyn their A-game with both Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier lining up aswell, and van der Poel is with no doubt the man to beat but the question is if he is willing to wait and make his move at the right time, or if he'll attack at a not-so-good location to favour his teammates again. Of course, bad luck can always strike, but he is clearly the main favourite.
So who can challenge him?
There are some riders in form coming in, who were hoping to come get a good win before the main classics block before founding out who Alpecin were bringing in. They will still be there though, main competition should come from the Deceuninck powerhouses, Florian Sénéchal is coming in to try and get another win in this race and it's one that suits him very well, from the rough cobbles to the possible tough sprint scenario. Also, it's Deceuninck, although they aren't bringing close to their A-team, Bert van Lerberghe is coming in with great form and Tim Declerq will have a more important role, Jannik Steimle can also surprise, it's a team that knows very well how to race here. There are in my opinion two other candidates to win this race the first one being the usually unlucky Sep Vanmarcke, who looked really sharp this weekend and should be motivated in his new team, Israel also include defending champion Hugo Hofstetter, doesn't seem to be in his best form but will be motivated aswell to perform. The other is John Degenkolb, looked really good this weekend aswell and for sure he's coming in to try and win, having a good sprint and all the experience a rider can wish for.
From there on I don't think there's any rider who can realistically win, however the podium would still be a very good result and there are plenty of riders worthy and strong enough for it. Direct Energie for example bring two-time winner Niki Terpstra, Adrien Petit and Damien Gaudin who have between themselves an extra 3 podium places, they are all powerhouse classics riders with a lot of experience in this route who will be looking to replicate those results. Talking of riders who know this race, Aimé de Gendt is one of the main ones, again a candidate for the podium, although for a sprint scenario the team has better cards to play in Danny van Poppel and Andrea Pasqualon.
There are some more riders who can sprint really well and, like Hofstetter did last year, can surprise by making the decisive selection, AG2R have a dangerous rider in Marc Sarreau who will be supported by an experienced team, Alexis Gougeard is also really well suited and could shoot his shot, Timothy Dupont of Bingoal is the other name, having kicked off the season really well with a win in Bessèges. Furthermore there are some more outsiders, the two big names I'd like to mention are Dimitri Claeys of Qhubeka who comes as a major underdog and also Beat's Jan-Willem van Schip who doesn't often pop up in the road with major results but this kind of chaotic heavy cobbled classics are just his thing.
Prediction Time
⭐ van Lerberghe, Declerq, Steimle, Merlier, Hofstetter, Petit, de Gendt, Dupont, Claeys
I think Mathieu van der Poel will take the race a bit easier. But even if it doesnt, this is a route that's more suited to him and there is no long flat section where a peloton can put on an organized chase. He's by far the strongest rider on the startlist, so he takes it.
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