Back into action with perhaps the most predictable of the Ardennes classics where, despite it's hilly and rough nature, it's all about the Mur de Huy where the best puncheurs (and some climbers) in the world come to fight for the second big classic of the week. Let's see what we've got on our hands for tomorrow.
The Route
192.5 kilometers on the menu with a rugged profile in what is the 2nd of the 3 Ardennes classics which features it's classic finish atop the Mur de Huy. There are just about 3000 meters of climbing, it's not at all an easy challenge as the peloton will have a rough final circuit which mimics last year's. The riders will enter the circuit with 70Km to the finish and from there on they'll tackle 2 laps of the final circuit (and an extra ascent of the Mur).
The first ascent of the circuit is the Côte d'Ereffe, in the final lap it summits with 18.5Km to go, it's a very constant climb, short, not one that will suffocate the main men but will do some damage in the peloton every lap and will serve as launchpad for secondary cards and teams attacking to then not have the responsability of chasing.
The other climb is the Côte de Chemin des Gueuses. In the final lap it finishes with 9.5Km to go, it's essentially the same as the previous climb but not as constant but it can have a more important role being closer to the finish. From there on there's a little descent back to the river where there will, as every year, a very fast furious approach to the final climb.
No need to make a presentation. Short, steep, it's one of the hardest sprints (yes I said it) of the season. The big contenders try to get as well positioned as possible in the hairpin, from there on someone will trigger it and all hell will break loose and the strongest wins almost always.
The Weather
The wind will pick up throughout the afternoon, temperatures will be normal and there's a (very small) chance of some rain falling, but the wind will be the most important factor as it'll be intense from the north, which is quite dangerous as it will be a cross-tailwind directly after the Mur which is not only ideal for attacks but also for echelons. The other two climbs will be more covered but also with crosswinds, as for the Mur it's a tailwind where the wind can be felt.
The Favourites
My first question lies on what kind of finale it'll be. Every year the big guns just save their legs as much as possible for the final ascent of the Mur where the race is decided, but every year the attacking groups/breakaways become stronger and stronger. With the main favourites likely going into the race with the same mentality of not following early moves this opens up the room for plenty of outsiders to shoot their shot and with the weather conditions we've got they can be quite dangerous, so those have to be kept under control more strictly this year.
Although there isn't just 1 or 2 riders who take the whole responsability this year - which is good in chasing terms - there's no lying that there are some men that should be above the rest. The bookies' favourite is actually Primoz Roglic, it's his debut and he doesn't have a formidable track record in one-day races but the Slovenian is so extremely talented that he's taken a well deserved spot of favouritism, experience is not on his side but there's no denying the recent Itzulia winner can indeed make something big on the Mur. His Slovenian rival Tadej Pogacar will also be on the start line, but UAE has a flurry of options, although Pogacar may be the best one as he's the one on form, having Marc Hirschi, Diego Ulissi and Davide Formolo means they will likely be one of the most agressive teams out there. Although this isn't the one most suited to climbers, there are some coming over with big ambitions who have a pretty good punch aswell where you can include Guillaume Martin who will be leading Cofidis, Warren Barguil for Arkea and the trio of EF which has options in Sergio Higuita, Rigoberto Uran and young Brit Simon Carr, Groupama also has several options and will be on the offensive, David Gaudu is likely their best card but in Valentin Madouas and Rudy Molard we should be able to spot the team in front quite often. I would also include Jakob Fuglsang in this list as he is more of a climber to me, Omar Fraile is surely the co-leader alongside him, the Dane hasn't showed the best form aswell as Bauke Mollema but if they have a good day a Top10 is on the table.
But this is a classic usually for the puncheurs. And what a list we've got, 5-time winner Alejandro Valverde is coming in with great form and although he's not the name being mentioned the most for a win, there's no denying he's the single best rider when it comes to going up this climb. Julian Alaphilippe is also a two-time winner and he's not being given the name of man to beat due to his lack of a massive performance recently, but the Frenchman may enjoy and take advantage of the relatively less "important" role in the peloton tomorrow, aswell as less pressure, Deceuninck not only have him but also Mauri Vansevenant as cards to play for this one. Tom Pidcock is likely coming as the most threatening outsider, obviously he's also debuting here but that hasn't stopped him from getting brilliant results these last few weeks, Ineos have a stacked team with Michal Kwiatkowski, Richard Carapaz, Adam Yates and Tao Hart which is downright terrifying, the British team have plenty of cards to play, alongside Bora who should have Max Schachmann as their leader coming from 3rd in Amstel but also bringing in Ide Schelling and Patrick Konrad as secondary cards to play. Furthermore you've got Michael Woods who loves a steep climb, a crash in the Basque Country derailed what looked to be an ideal preparation, but surely he still has big ambitions for a suited finale tomorrow, in a similar situation is Benoit Cosnefroy who's on his way back from injury after a runner-up place last year.
There are some more riders who carry some very good form who will attempt to be up there like Michael Matthews leading BikeExchange, Tim Wellens leading Lotto Soudal, you've got the Bahrain team coming in with several cards but likely being lead by Dylan Teuns who's having a great run of form, Simon Clarke who's coming in as Qhubeka's option, Jelle Vanendert leading Bingoal but bringing a heap of experience and finally Intermarche's Quinten Hermans and Loic Vliegen.
Prediction Time
⭐ Hirschi, G.Martin, Higuita, Gaudu, Fuglsang, Vansevenant, A.Yates, Carapaz, Schelling, Cosnefroy, Matthews, Teuns
When he got signed by Ineos I knew he was going to be a brilliant classics rider from the gun. Although last season it was in the mountains where he impressed, he's quickly reminded everyone how good he is by challenging (and beating) Wout van Aert already in the classics period. Although it's his debut I think he'll win atop the Mur, his flyweight will be a weapon to use and he's shown to be sharp enough to win on these kind of roads against the very best.
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