After the worlds and with the Giro looming in, it's a very short space mid-week where we'll have some great spectacle in the begining of the Ardennes trio. A classic for the puncheurs, we should as every year see an explosive finish in the Mur de Huy.
The Route
The race this year is 200 kilometers long, 6 kilometers more than last year and 200 meters more of climbing as tomorrow it'll go above 3100 meters of climbing. It is usually a race to the Mur and a race in the Mur, however the circuit has once again been changed and gives further room for the opportunists to attack. The final circuit includes 31Km and 3 climbs.
The first is the Côte d'Ereffe which is 2.3Km at 5.1%, the average gradient hides the rough gradients that come throughout most of the climb though, the final passage through this climb is placed with 18.5Km to go.
Afterwards comes the new addition to the circuit, the Côte du Chemin des Gueuses, it's placed just a mere 9.5Km to go and it's not an easy climb it has 1.6Km in lenght and an average of 6.3%
The final piece of climbing on the race is the famous Mur de Huy, there's no details that I can teach you, simply a slowly rise in gradient until the final hundred meters where usually a long sprint between the world's best puncheurs and climbers decides the winner.
The Weather
There's risks of rain, it probably will tomorrow during the morning which can lead to wet roads, even if it doesn't rain during the race it can be sketchy in some points, and the wind can take a significant role as it will be hit with some force from the south. Although the bigger part of the Mur is hidden from the wind there's a block headwind after which won't make attacks easy over the ring of the bell, both other climbs in the circuit will have a crosswind during and a tailwind after, can motivate attacks but at that distance I doubt they'll be dangerous to the regular scenario.
The Favourites
After coming from the Tour and Imola there are two riders in absolutely flying form which are both Tour stage winners, one being Michal Kwiatkowski who's coming in with a team of 6 and Ivan Sosa as his main support rider, he'll be looking to get over the disapointment of missing the podium this sunday despite a brilliant race. The other is Marc Hirschi, he's about to finish the month of racing that has brought him to the spotlight, very explosive the Swiss already has big respect in the peloton despite his young age, although the summit finish tomorrow perhaps isn't as suiting as Amstel or Liège he's a proven brilliant finisher! These are the two men to beat I would say, so who can beat them?
Well first of all there's Tour winner Tadej Pogacar, this isn't the most suiting of routes for him but you can't deny he's still in a very good position, he's still carrying great form and will keep experimenting in the classics as he's done this season, in the climber field we've got some interesting names like for example Richie Porte coming off the back of a great Tour, Dan Martin who himself was on the rise on the final week, didn't get his opportunity however tomorrow is a day that suits him and he knows very well how to ride it, Bahrain have Mikel Landa who isn't exactly an explosive climber but could play a part in the Top10 and could also help Dylan Teuns who hasn't yet shown much form after the lockdown but could perform, it's a race that suits him wel. From Jumbo Tom Dumoulin is leading still showing great form he looks to actually still be growing in form, he's not alone though he'll have the company of Laurens de Plus who will skip the Giro so I'm not sure if that could be a sign of bad form or bad relations with the management, and Danish talent Jonas Vingegaard is also a good rider to take into account. Also a Tour/Tirreno mix will be leading Bora, Patrick Konrad is a great option for tomorrow as an explosive punchy climber and Lennard Kamna is coming as a bit of a joker, we're not sure how well he'll be able to ride the classics but one thing we're sure of is that he has the legs!
As for the pure puncheur side there's some more interesting riders, Tim Wellens is leading Lotto, he isn't a very suited rider for this finish but is an outsider and a rider who can trigger big moves to antecipate the Mur, some more names that have came from the Tour are Benoit Cosnefroy who lead the KOM from the start and is evolving as a puncheur, Simon Geschke coming in leading CCC and Dries Devenyns who will get a rare opporutunity to lead the team at such level, although young Italian talent Andrea Bagioli is as fit for the job as him!
As I write this, both EF, Groupama, Sport Vlaanderen, Alpecin, Bingoal, NTT and Arkea have not confirmed their team. Hence I haven't considered their riders.
Prediction Time
🌟 D.Martin, Dumoulin, Konrad, Kamna, Devenyns
I'm going with Michal Kwiatkowski for tomorrow, he's a special rider and has lately gotten the freedom he rarely has in the big races, he's clearly in flying form and with his confidence high after the last couple weeks he's my man for tomorrow!
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