With the cobbled classics on the way it's time for the second part of the opening weekend. In Kuurne we usually see the sprinters come to the fore, although in the last two years it has been Deceuninck taking an impressive win solo, with Bob Jungels and last year Kasper Asgreen. The route isn't easy though, will we see a group finish or will solo moves succeed again?
The Route
The race is 197 kilometers long, it's not a huge distance for a classic but it's still quite decent, but unlike most cobbled classics this one will for sure be very sharp from start to finish. Although the start of the race is essentialy flat, the Volkenberg kicks things off quite early, and a rolling route will lead up to the crucial part of the race, beggining with the Mont Saint Laurent.
It's quite a brute, not one usually used in the Belgian classics but clearly it is one that perfectly belongs in these races. The grades go up to 20%, the short period after it is ideal for attacking, or a collective move can easily split the race. Still, it's 106Km away from the finish, it will be followed by a small rolling period leading up to La Houpe and the Kanarieberg, both with quite some hard gradients but on smooth roads (91.5 and 86Km to go), and then after a quick descent the next feature will be tackled.
Which is the Oude Kruisberg, another gruelling steep cobbled sector, after the summit the road still keeps going up and summits with 77Km to go, then after another descent there will be the Côte de Trieu summiting with 69Km to go, and then the furious run-up to...
The Oude Kwaremont. Everyone knows this climb very well it needs no introduction, but if you're new to cycling this is one of Flandres' most famous and long cobbled sectors, one that slowly rises up to 9% in a horrible cobblestone road, before flattening a bit and having a slight rise to it's summit, it's incredibly hard to get up to speed here and attacks come in a non-explosive but usually effective form. It summits with 59Km to go, quite some distance but the attackers will still have the Kluisberg afterwards in which they can make a move, summiting with 52.5Km to go.
From there on it's a mostly flat ride back into Kuurne, with the short Beerbosstraat being passed with 35Km to go. From there on there isn't much to tell, a lot of flat fast roads and a small loop in Kuurne before the finish. If it does come down to it, it's not a technical finish, one suited for big leadouts and with enough room for everyone.
View from the finish
The Weather
There is moderate wind coming from the northeast. In the first part of the race it'll come as mostly a headwind but it will really help the attackers as the road after leaving the main bergs will go back with a tailwind and a cross-tailwind all the way back to Kuurne.
Will Mathieu van der Poel decide the race?
Now this is important, after a successful CX season and stage win at the UAE Tour before abandoning it's safe to say the Dutchman is coming in with good form, and knowing his racing style he surely won't hold anything back, and can definitely attack early on. But when he does he's surely not stopping, so I think unlike recent editions of the race, also justified by the wind conditions, a bunch sprint is not the most likely scenario. If he manages to get a rider or two with him riding all the way with full commitment, van der Poel can make the race harder than usual.
Who can go with him?
So the first question lies on who can go with him, or attack the race equally as hard? Well that depends, Deceuninck is in theory the team that could do it but they're coming in without Alaphilippe, Ballerini and Sénéchal. Still, they have the Asgreen/Stybar/Lampaert trio, but 2 of them crashed today, they've got Steimle (and maybe Hodeg) as backups in case it all comes together. The other 2 teams that I touted to be collective dominant today really weren't, AG2R had and will have Greg van Avermaet and Oliver Naesen, who will surely be looking to attack the race, and Trek who have been completely absent today will come with an equally as strong team, but wether they'll perform or not is an enigma. The team that performed above expectations today was Ineos, who has several rider up there in the Muur with Gianni Moscon and Tom Pidcock looking very sharp, they'll surely be the team's main options for tomorrow and will look to break it up.
Furthermore some more teams will want the same scenario for sure like DSM who've got Benoot/SK.Andersen/Pedersern/Eekhoff all as legitimate contenders in my eye, they missed the important move today and burnt the team chasing, however tomorrow I expect a more coordinated and focused race and one where they antecipate the main moves. Follow them Lotto's Tim Wellens and Florian Vermeersch, and Nils Politt of Bora who have a strong sprint and would really benefit from a small group moving away on the final climbs, and then there are some more like Dylan Teuns and Niki Terpstra for example who are strong but would absolutely need a lucky solo move to be able to win this one.
Who will rely on their sprint?
Lots of sprinters come here with the goal of taking a prestigious win in a rough classic. I think the tactics won't be easy for them, but the very long flat section before the finish may allow an organized chase to come back. The list of contenders is big and some of them are very experienced in the cobbled classics, such names include Groupama's Arnaud Démare who will come with a strong supporting squad, he and riders like Alexander Kristoff (or Matteo Trentin, EF's Jens Keukeleire, Christophe Laporte of Cofidis, Astana's Alex Aranburu or Bryan Coquard who'll be leading B&B Hotels make for a very long list of names who will have their team at disposal at all times for sure and will try to make sure there is a bunch or a reduced group sprint in for the finale of the race.
These alone should have the team at their disposal, but no it isn't done there, there are a lot more sprinters coming in that may not have a leadership role but will be protected, or can be lucky in race context and snatch a fine result. Some will have a protected role and quality to make it into big moves like John Degenkolb (having Gerben Thijssen as a pure sprinter backup), Hugo Hofstetter who will have Sep Vanmarcke as the likely team leader but should be the team's main card, also with Rudy Barbier as a possibility for a bunch sprint, Alvaro Hodeg will be Deceuninck's main card for a bunch sprint, Bahrain have Sonny Colbrelli, Intermarche have several cards but Andrea Pasqualon should be protected, this is assuming he hasn't taken a big hit in today's crash. Some riders like Tim Merlier, Jordi Meeus, Marc Sarreau, Carlos Barbero, Dion Smith, Thomas Boudat/Dan McLay, Niccolo Bonifazio/Edvald Boasson Hagen/Lorenzo Manzin, Jakub Mareczko, Timothy Dupont... There are a lot of sprinters, a lot of them, that's the point!
Prediction Time
⭐ Asgreen, Stybar, Naesen, Moscon, C.Pedersen, SK.Andersen, Stuyven, M.Pedersen, Politt, Vanmarcke, Hofstetter, Trentin, Colbrelli, Merlier
The exciting thing about Mathieu van der Poel is that he isn't afraid to make crazy moves. He didn't race Omloop for a reason, he is specifically targeting this race and saved himself, he will attack and blow up the race at some point, and when he does he rarely stops he's ride or die. In this case, I think he is capable of motivating a group and holding a gap over the remainders of a peloton, and even in case of a group sprint he's sure to have a good edge.
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