With the cycling restart full-gas it's already time for the second monument of the season, after racing in Liguria and Piemonte the next Italian challenge takes place in Lombardy. The route is it's traditional route where distance and the steep climbs will mark this iconic and scenic race.
The Route
There are 230.8 kilometers in the and almost 400 meters of climbing, and without a doubt the second part of the race is the hardest. However in the first half the riders will tackle the Colle Gallo which is 6Km long at 6.7%, and the Colle Brianza, another 4.3Km long at 4.9%. These are just a little warm-up for the following half.
The Madonna del Ghisallo is one of the most recognized names in cycling, and a climb that usually provides a place for the climber teams to put in the damage. It summits with 64Km to go. There's several kilometers at 9% of gradient, with a flat part in the middle breaking that average.
The big star of this race is for sure the Colma di Sormano. Brutal doesn't quite describe this climb, it's first section at 6% for 5Km is essentially a fight for position into the Muro, which is 1.9Km long at 16%, horrific! Not many riders come out of this climb in front, and the descent following is very technical and dangerous. It summits with 50Km to go.
And this is possibly the climb that will decide the race. This is the Civiglio, it's over 4Km long at 10% average, it starts in the center of Como where the riders then go back to before tackling the final climb.
Which is the San Fermo Della Battaglia, a small climb, and "easy" comparing to what the riders had just faced, however it's still a climb and an opportunity to make a winning move. How important will it be? Depends on how far the decisive attacks come from.
The Weather
Some hot temperatures, little chance of rain and just a tiny breeze from the south, should be normal August weather for this one.
The Climbers
The climbers are usually the ones who decide this race. With the main three climbs being quite long this is usually a very draining effort for those who like the short climbs so the climbers are always in control of the race and this year we have quite the duel incoming.
Remco Evenepoel is the man to beat for many and I have to agree in some part, his form and quality has been nothing but scary and he comes in supported by a very strong team including the likes of fellow youngsters Almeida and Bagioli (but really the whole team is very strong and complete) and this route isn't as suiting to him as he had in Poland, but more similar to the likes of Burgos where although he won he was far from dominating. That pressure will for sure weigh on him in that he will be marked, this is how you deal with him you can never give him a gap and most riders will know that by now. Vincenzo Nibali is leading a very strong Trek team that although I reckon Nibali is coming for a third shot at the title of the race, he's alongside defending champion Bauke Mollema and Giulio Ciccone who are also tremendously well suited for this race. Trek lit up Milano-Sanremo completely and with this more suiting route they will with no doubt be licking their lips.
In their heels will be another team who's been on flying form and that is Astana. With Jakob Fuglsang on the helm and the Vlasov/Ion Izagirre duo behind Astana can really play this into their own hands, they have the depth to attack and counter-attack every move that sparks from the peloton, as they've got Aranburu who will be on domestique duties for sure and the neo-pro Harold Tejada who's been showing his quality lately. Ineos will be another team looking for a win, they'll be hoping Carapaz has recovered from his crash in Poland that prevented him from fighting for the race win, if he has he's a great contender for the win and he has some strong backups mainly in Ivan Sosa and Tao Hart, and perhaps even Gianni Moscon who doesn't particularly fancy these long climbs but has been showing form to be competitive enough here.
Outside of those you have George Bennett who is also on flying form and has won Gran Piemonte earlier this week in great fashion, it's evident that he has the legs to contest the race, if he doesn't have any crash he'll be of a threat and will hope for few attacks from other teams as his team depth doesn't match the ones I previously mentioned. Rafal Majka and Patrick Konrad will lead Bora in an attempt to get a strong result although their chances of winning may come better in Max Schachmann who may struggle a bit in the long climbs but he has what it takes to take this, there will be Ben Hermans leading Israel, Wilco Kelderman leading Sunweb and Jesus Herrada looking for a sneaky result for Cofidis.
The Puncheurs
On the more punchy side there are two strong contenders for this race I reckon and first one is Diego Ulissi, second in Piemonte and fifth in Pologne, he's not a strong climber but he has form on his side alongside a strong punchy power and sprint. He has Valerio Conti, Fabio Aru and Alexandr Riabushenko as possible outsiders aswell for the race. The other is EF who will be supporting Michael Woods the goat track expert, Sormano is his ground, his form hasn't been shown well but if he has he will be flying, he loves these steep climbs and Lombardia suits him well, Alberto Bettiol and Simon Clarke alongside Ruben Guerreiro can also do very well despite fitting shorter climbers.
CCC have some strong outsiders in Alessandro De Marchi and Simon Geschke, also young Hungarian Attila Valter could do well and I really hope he can impress. Rudy Molard and Tim Wellens are also names who can fly on that final climb, but may struggle a lot to get there in a good position and finally I'll throw Odd Christian Eiking of Circus into the plate!
Some outsiders
On the outsiders field I'll put Mathieu van der Poel, this isn't a race for him but I understand the hype and I do hope to see him climbing strong, Mitchelton has some good riders, Nieve has the experience in him but perhaps some younger names like Rob Stannard or Lucas Hamilton could pick up the team's hopes of a result, Bahrain have Pernsteiner and Padun as outsiders and also Giovanni Visconti of Vini Zabù.
Prediction Time
🌟 Ciccone, Ulissi, Woods, Carapaz, Majka, Kelderman
I get the Remco hype, and well with this I'm making sure he is gonna win, but hell this is a monument, and I give a lot of value into endurance and experience. For this reason I'm going with the Great Dane, he has the form and he will love these shorter steep climbs, between him and Nibali there's a ton of experience and they will know how to beat Evenepoel, they both have teams strong enough to chase in case Evenepoel iludes before Civiglio, and on the climbs I reckon they'll be as strong.
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