Despite the long wait of the punchy riders to make the difference today actually we found that there were lots of casualties in the GC, I'll mention them later. Astana made the race as hard as they could, on the final climb though it was Guillaume Martin who put the stage onto risk for the faster men, those who resisted, and inbetween those who reeled him in was Pascal Ackermann who got beaten twice and in the stage of the opening trio that suited him the least he got the best of all others. Alexandr Riabushenko finished second and Matteo Trentin third, having also gotten time from an intermediate sprint.
Positive: Ackermann taking the win in the leader's jersey was definetely the winner of the day, although we see Trentin making big gains in the GC with already 15 seconds gained on most of his rivals. Martin showed very strong, should've taken confidence for tomorrow and Villella also took a second to come out of the day with something.
Negative: A lot of riders showed fragility today, obviously out of the GC and some came as a big surprise. Inbetween the distanced were Katusha's Zakarin/Spilak, Hivert, Narvaez, Carthy, Gasparotto, Kamna and Jan Hirt. Surely narrows down the list for tomorrow doesn't it.
The Route
And stage 4 will be the queen stage. As it's been a familiar scenario in this race, there's a small hilltop finish that should be the main decider in the overall. The stage in it's whole is quite short (only 160Km kilometers) and also very flat, so it should be a single-effort stage where everything will be decided in the end.
The final climb is 3.4Km long at 6.9%, it's a power climb, a twitchy start but very straightforward in it's bulk before a final sting in the end, it may be decided in a sprint between those who make it that far.*
*no veloviewer data as there's no road information in the area
The Weather
Another quiet day in Chinese roads, hot weather but shouldn't affect much since most of the day is pan-flat, and there's no wind to make a difference.
The Favourites
Some riders played agressively today, some didn't have the legs or tryed to save as much as possible for tomorrow, inbetween the sprinters Matteo Trentin is essentialy the only name I'd consider for tomorrow. To win the stage, I find it hard, but he is in a great position to take the overall and he will give it his all to be there as far as possible.
Best of the rest, well there are likely riders above but Guillaume Martin is the one that's been showing the guns more, he's been at great form in the season finale despite a long year and he's a rider that can fit these short climbs very well, with Odd Christian Eiking and also Loic Vliegen, both who've gotten big wins this season and should make for one of the biggest threats. From the team side of things there are two others coming with big depth, Deceuninck have Enric Mas as perhaps the biggest name but several alternatives, as Pieter Serry and Petr Vakoc as pure puncheurs and also Remi Cavagna and Mikkel Honoré as engines who can definetely do this type of effort. The other is Astana, they have Davide Villella as the leader for sure with Kudus and Gregaard as GC alternatives but a general strong support.
Alexandr Riabushenko got time today, he looks sharp, I stand by him to be in the fight for the win and the GC tomorrow as a big favourite, then you have riders like Calmejane who finished very strong today who also looks good for the job. INEOS should have Diego Rosa as the leader, he has a tradition of finishing the season in high form and this one was no excpetion, De la Cruz should be in the fight too so they could benefit from a constant high pace throughout the climb, and a run-up too.
Then there's Bora, Schachmann looked in form today, not peak but competitive, alongside Grossschartner who was second (and the best of the ones racing this year) on this very climb I see also big candidates for the win. They hold the leader's jersey but have some very strong firepower to be able to help positioning before the climb where they will take care of themselves. Tolhoek and Roosen are in it for Jumbo-Visma, same for Dani Martinez who is now leading EF, despite believing in Vanmarcke's chances it may just be too hard for him tomorrow also considering he's been in a breakaway already.
Prediction Time
⭐ Eiking, Vakoc, Kudus, Calmejane, Rosa, Tolhoek, Martinez, Trentin
Seeing just how strong he looked in the sprint today, the form he's carried from the Italian Autumn classes is still there, looked confortable and is my call to take the win tomorrow, the big leap he's been working to. In Alexandr we believe!
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