The European season started last week in Valencia but tomorrow... Tomorrow is when the real competition starts, the first battle between some of the World Tour teams and plenty more. This year the Marseillaise has a lot more mediatic attention because of the ongoing race cancellations and postponing of others, and with less racing to cover in the next few weeks I've decided to begin the season here!
The Route
The classic has a very similar route every year, 2800 meters of climbing are present in this edition in a classic that is suited for the puncheurs, but also those with a fast finish that can resist the attacks of the lighter riders. That means it's a very open race, on the twisty roads of the Côte d'Azur, where the riders make the race more than usually!
The reason why is obvious, the harder they go on the climbs the harder it will be for the sprinters to make it to the finish, the harder it is to see a group finish, and there is a lot of road for that to happen with a solid amount of rolling hills covering the whole route. There is no special point marking the first point of the route, with several small climbs like the Pas de la Couelle (summits 112Km from the finish) and the Plateu de la Sainte-Baume (90Km to the finish) as perhaps the main points to force the pace early on. Some more little climbs follow but the perhaps pivotal point of the race comes closer to the finish.
The Col des Crêtes is arguably the roughest climb of the race. In theory, the big moves by the climbers should come here as it's their best opportunity to make a difference. Despite not being very long it's an 11-minute effort and the gradients are rough from the bottom outside of the town of La Ciotat. The summit comes with 28 kilometers to the finish.
And the final opportunity for significant gaps to be made are at the Col de la Gineste. It isn't a rough climb, by far (specially with the wind conditions mentioned below) one easy to make difference, but it does throw a lot of road to surprise, to reel back in riders or groups, to split the groups a bit. The climb summits with a mere 10.5Km to go and from there on it's mostly downhill to Marseille.
The Weather
Strong northwestern wind. That is very important for the race, crosswind-split attempts are possible early in the day, but the reason why this wind will matter is because most of the run-up to the finish will have a block headwind. In the Col des Crêtes the wind will be somewhat hidden, but in Gineste there will be nowhere to hide. Harder to create gaps, harder to keep them if you had beforehand.
The Favourites
Now obviously there are two groups, those who will look to attack, and those who will want a group finish, a large group preferencially. Firstly those puncheurs must be mentioned as we're more likely to see them in the front of the race. There's a lot of team depth, with a level that isn't very high and unknown form, plenty of riders can have a very big saying in the uphill.
Starting with the World Tour teams racing in their home country. AG2R, they have a very strong team where everyone can climb, in Calmejane and Gallopin there are two riders very suited for these kind of rolling classics and Andrea Vendrame is their best option in case of a sprint. It is one of the teams that may stimulate the race more as Vendrame is strong enough to drop many of his sprinting peers. Cofidis have Christophe Laporte as a fast option, who at his best can climb quite well, but they will likely put their cards more towards the offensive side having Jesús Herrada and Nicolas Edet as two of the strongest climbers, aswell as possibly new adition Rubén Fernández. As for Groupama, I would expect a much more conservative race, they aren't bringing any of their main men, the youngsters Jake Stewart and Alexys Brunel should lead, the Brit should be the main card to play for a sprint.
The odds lie the lowest in the Belgian Lotto Soudal squad who are bringing a very strong squad in order to try and get their season off on a strong start. Tim Wellens having those low numbers, he is someone who usually starts the season very well, the climbs will suit him properly and he also has a very decent sprint to contest with. Philippe Gilbert is another possible rider to be on the offensive but I would count more on Danish debutant on the team Andreas Kron, a very sharp puncheur with a strong sprint. If it comes down to a sprint, Gerben Thijssen and John Degenkolb should be better options. EF have some of the new riders on the team coming to lead, Julien El Fares and Simon Carr should have a special opportunity to lead the team, Intermarché have a great option in Andrea Pasqualon but Odd Christian Eiking will for sure have green card to go on the moves on the heated moments of the race, Delko have Alessandro Fedeli as a very decent oportunist who can surprise on the climbs and Direct Energie are coming with a brand new set of leaders. Pierre Latour and Alexis Vuillermoz are coming in and will want to impress from the get-go, will be riders to watch on the climbs, Edvald Boasson Hagen and Chris Lawless intend on doing the same and both are sprinters who can climb very well and Anthony Turgis is perhaps the ultimate wildcard for the race, being a very talented rider who can both sprint, climb and also power away solo, has the engine to hold off a group.
Fast Men
But if the wind plays a role too important, if it comes back to a group sprint, some riders will definetely eye the opportunity. Not to say some of these names can't go in small groups to the finish, but their best chances are exactly to have some alliances and keep the race as compact as possible. UAE are the obvious name to take into account, Matteo Trentin is someone who was always there but struggled to get a win last year, he's raced very offensively, my honest opinion is that now in UAE he should have a much different mindset and race more calmly, let his teammates do the attacking and save his legs more. Here will be a very good test, the team is very well suited to him, Ryan Gibbons presents a very good alternative if he finds good form because he can also climb very well, both will hope for a sprint finish.
Bryan Coquard may struggle a bit more in the climbing but he should be B&B Hotels' main card, if he falters Jonathan Hivert and Quentin Pacher should be ready to step it up and race agressively. Thomas Boudat for Arkéa and Eduard-Michael Grosu for Delko are some more outsider names looking for a surprise.
Prediction Time
⭐ Laporte, Stewart, Degenkolb, EB.Hagen, Coquard, Fedeli
Anthony Turgis is my first call of the year. Why? Well the headwind will for sure play a big role, a solo finish I would say is almost impossible, I think a sprint between a group of 15+ is very possible and in that case riders like Trentin and Pasqualon could become the men to beat, but I think the agressive racing will shatter the race enough, Turgis can climb and he can definetely sprint, he's won this race 2 years ago and I trust he can do it again.
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