It was a very stressful day at first as the strong winds threatened to chop the peloton definitely very early on, and after a very long fight for the breakaway to form we had a modest group in front, that was given a big leash. Victor Lafay kept it together when the race was attacked and on the final climb proved the strongest man out on the road, confidently taking the win in front of Francesco Gavazzi and Nikias Arndt. In the peloton the GC riders arrived together as expected.
Positive: Cofidis got a very big win here with a young talent they're developing.
Negative: Caleb Ewan abandoned the race.
The Route
A raid day in the Apennines as the peloton will have a roller coaster up to Rocca di Cambio after tackling several large climbs. The day is hard from start to finish, barely a flat meter, 3500 meters of climbing on the menu right from the start. There will be 3 big climbs in the first two thirds of the stage in the Passo Godi, Fonte Ciarlotto and Forca Caruso who are all very similar above 10 kilometers in lenght and between 4/5% average gradient, very constant climbs.
They will face a 4th one though in Ovindoli, summiting with 23 kilometers to go it can be a place of attack to bridge across to riders that may be in front, but likely it will "just" inflict some more damage in the peloton as they head to the final climb.
Campo Felice is where the finish line will be positioned. This isn't a hard climb, but everytime the race comes up here there aren't big gaps, but a final kilometer being attacked, some seconds of split in there usually. Should be no different if the race isn't raided, the final 1.6Km have a 8.6% average gradient which is pretty decent and almost all of them are in a gravel road. It won't make a big difference, but there is the chance this stage will be blown up early on.
The Weather
Horrific, as it's been this first week. The forecast says it's very unlikely to rain, so that means probably it'll rain hard at some point! But it's the wind, normally around 15Km/h but with gusts reaching 60Km/h throughout the whole stage coming from the southwest, it'll be gruesome and echelons are possible despite the mountainous stage. Passo Godi and Ovindoli will have crosswinds, and take special attention to the section after the Ovindoli climb, with around 21Km to go it'll be exposed and hit by what should be a strong crosswind, damage can very well happen there. As for the final climb there will be a lot of headwind until the gravel section where it'll come as a crosswind again, but there the effect won't be very meaningful.
The Favourites
It's a rough day, there won't probably be any big gaps but with the weather conditions I can't help but to feel like one or two GC contenders will be caught out tomorrow either in echelons or having had a bad day, a Grand Tour requires consistency and tomorrow is another day to go all-out on the climbs where the climbers need their best legs.
With the way they've been racing you can bet your house Ineos will once again try something. They have been on spot so far, collectively brilliant and well structured, and Egan Bernal has been profiting from that work gaining some time on his main rivals. The final kilometer will likely see some seconds between the riders that enter the final climb together, but beforehand the race can blow up. Bernal and Daniel Martinez are likely to be on the attack and everyone will try to follow essentially, would imagine Giulio Ciccone is the other riders planning on making a move. Groupama will be controling the day a bit as they look to defend their lead with Atilla Valter, and riding conservatively we should see most of the GC contenders who will be seeing how their legs are and then trying to prevent any losses as the big gaps are set to start being made next week. This includes Deceuninck who have Remco Evenepoel in a good position to take pink and Alexander Vlasov whose teams should be focusing on them quite a bit, some like EF led by Hugh Carthy, BikeExchange led by Simon Yates, Israel led by Dan Martin and Bahrain led by Damiano Caruso should see men in front fighting for the stage, or a GC raid.
Harsh weather favours riders like Davide Formolo, Marc Soler and Romain Bardet who can also perform well tomorrow, we should see some conservative performances by Emanuel Buchmann and Vincenzo Nibali who remain far from the spotlight as they ride inside the Top20.
The day is dangerous though, it's a constant roller coaster through the Apennines with rough weather and the GC still relatively open. We have lots of riders who will be eyeing a breakaway also for the goal of possibly moving up the overall, perhaps into pink as the current and previous leaders of the race. Riders like Gianni Moscon, Pello Bilbao and Fausto Masnada are three riders I expect to see try something and move into pink, the latter two should have the freedom and legs to do so.
For the stage though the list is massive. You have teams with several riders capable of winning on such a day like EF who have Ruben Guerreiro and Alberto Bettiol, Bora with Matteo Fabbro and Felix Grossschartner, Movistar with Einer Rubio, Antonio Pedrero and Dario Cataldo, Israel with Patrick Bevin and Alessandro De Marchi, and finally Trek with Bauke Mollema and Gianluca Brambilla. These teams should have an advantage, and will be very active early in the day in order to put as many men as possible in front to enlargen their chances of taking a big win.
Furthermore you could see a bounce back by George Bennett who's been struggling so far, see an emerging Diego Ulissi who's shown great form today and seems finally back to winning form, Nicholas Roche who should be DSM's option for a breakaway and AG2R's Geoffrey Bouchard.
Prediction Time
⭐ S.Yates, Vlasov, Carthy, Caruso, Formolo, Fabbro, Grossschartner, Pedrero, Bevin, Brambilla, Bouchard, G.Bennett
It will be a day for the hard men. I think the breakaway will once again succeed, this time Alessandro De Marchi will be taking the win as these climbs suit him perfectly and he's carrying brilliant form.
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