On a day where the breakaway made it to the end as expected we say very little going on actually, a calm day to recover from yesterday's speedrun and tomorrow's rough climbing challenge. A breakaway was set early on that didn't include any big candidates but got away easily with no chase from the peloton, the win smiled to Alex Dowsett who capitalized on a great strategical play by Israel to take an elusive win. Salvatore Puccio and Matthew Holmes rounded the podium whilst in the peloton everyone remained calm until the finish.
Positive: Israel getting a very important win, and one obtained even though they had 2 of the weakest climbers in the group, they played their cards well and succeeded.
Negative: Nothing really to point out. Bora and Sunweb had a chance to take a win today but it's understandable why they didn't, no-one worked. The lack of Sagan and Démare in the final sprint though I didn't quite understand, there were points at stake in there.
The Route
Stage 9 wraps off the hard first week of racing. It's the racing day deep into the Appenines with a finish in Roccaraso. Again, over 4500 meters of climbing, it doesn't look like a day that at first sight can create chaos in the peloton but it's quite a rough stage, the final half of the stage and a bit more are either up or down including Passo Lanciano before a series of climb leading to the inconsistent summit finish in Roccaraso.
Lanciano is quite the hard climb, it comes far from the finish so won't have much of an influence. Passo San Leonardo summits with 53Km to the finish and after Bosco di Sant'Antonio summits with 27Km to go. Both climbs aren't steep but they are very constant and long specially the first one. There will be a lot of roller-coaster, very little flat roads and even though the finish isn't overly hard it will see some gaps.
The finishing climb unfortunately is somewhat the perfect formula to block out attacks. But that won't mean there won't be spectacle, the first part of the climb will keep shredding the peloton and then the flat part into the final 2.5Km will mean the speeds and leadout duties will accelarate the group a lot, and then a slow gradual rise into the line will mean a pure friction (probably sprint) into the line, the explosive climbers are the riders to consider mostly.
The Weather
Another rough day in terms of weather, temperatures won't go much above 10 degrees and might get below and several points, skies will look cloudy and there's forecasts of slight rain. Besides strong gusts of wind are expected southwest which can be meaningful and should also mean a headwind throughout most the day's climbs.
The Favourites
This headwind for the day's climbs is going to be really important I reckon. The stage is quite hard but at the same time Lanciano is the only climb where real damage could be made and I doubt any team will put everything out there that far from the finish. Most of the rest of the day will be slight climbing with headwind and I doubt many teams will look to cause much damage as the gaps will only be made there in that final kilometer pretty much so I think it'll be a day of saving the legs as much as possible for most GC riders, opening it up for the breakaway hunters.
The start isn't overly hard but there's a little pitch which could be enough to see some strong climbers get away right away, following last stages' routine Deceuninck probably won't be bothered to keep the pace high and the gap will grow, the only team I see could possibly work would be Sunweb, maybe Trek if they want to take big risks in a descent, but I don't believe it'll happen likely. So that opens it up, who to attacks tomorrow?
Well such a start and stage puts Thomas de Gendt as a strong contender as he's showing good form, the rolling climbs suit him well and so does the start. Other riders I have to say, very similar to those that I hinted for today but with some more climbers I would say.
AG2R - Bouchard, Peintre
CCC - De la Parte, Valter
Cofidis - Edet, Rossetto
EF - Guerreiro, Kangert
Lotto - de Gendt, Armée
Mitchelton - Haig
Movistar - Cataldo
Ineos - Hart, Castroviejo
Sunweb - Hamilton
UAE - Ulissi, Conti
Vini Zabù - Visconti
Hey in the Tour this worked just fine! There's 18 names in here and I'm 90% confident the win will come from one of them, it will all depend on how tight the leash in on the breakaway in the opening kilometers and how many of them escape. However all bases are covered, these are my guys for tomorrow, let's roll!
Prediction Time
⭐ Nibali, Fuglsang, Kelderman, Valter, Kangert, Cataldo, Conti
I'm going with Diego Ulissi to take a second stage win tomorrow. Strong climbing, great form, has the freedom and is also looking towards points possibly. In any way UAE have no responsabilities so there's nothing witholding him of going on the attack!
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