It was a stressful finale as expected but the win came in amazing fashion as Caleb Ewan took his second one of the race. It was a calm stage but an hectic finale, Lotto did a masterclass in leadout getting the Australian in the right spot at the right time, chasing down the late moves and then Ewan himself chased Fernando Gaviria and powered on to a dominant win in front of Davide Cimolai and Tim Merlier.
Positive: Ewan taking his second win, Cimolai taking another brilliant result in a sprint.
Negative: Sagan had a mechanical in the end and couldn't dispute the sprint as he had hoped for.
The Route
A breakaway stage. The only thing missing is an uphill start, but with Rocca di Campio after tomorrow, tomorrow will be a day where most favourites will be looking to save up their legs. At the same time there are gaps in the GC and the stage is favourable enough for climbers so they'll be on the hunt for a stage.
The longest, and dare I say main climb of the day is the Bocca Della Selva, not steep but long, in the breakaway surely some riders will crack here as the climbers will look to thin things out and prevent being surprised as the final climb really isn't that selective, and it summits with 50 kilometers to go.
The final climb goes up to Guardia Sanframondi. There's a false-flat run-up to the climb which is 3.1Km in lenght and 6.6% in average gradient, keeping a constant 7-8% gradient throughout most of the climb before flattening out in the final 500 meters.
It is quite technical though, the climb isn't steep but the final 2 kilometers have some sharp turns including a couple of switchbacks which give room for surprise moves. In the peloton I don't expect the climb to make differences, a select group will sprint to the line.
The Weather
Some unpredictable weather once more. The forecast says there's a little risk of rain, that may turn into harsh rain showers and the wind will once again be unpredictable, with strong gusts in exposed sections coming from the southwest and increasting throughout the day. This shouldn't stop the breakaway from succeeding though, but it will make it easier for the peloton to control if if a team wants to do so.
The Favourites
You've got a big day tomorrow in the mountains that should see the GC riders save their legs as much as possible, and a stage with quite some climbing but no spot to actually make differences in the overall fight, so despite the flat start this is without a doubt a day for the breakaway. The stage (and it's climbs) aren't hard enough to really count out puncheurs and rouleurs, and the start will make it hard for the skinny climbers to make it in front, the list of favourites is quite big as with 2 mountain stages under the belt we have a good idea of who's got good form, who's targeting stages and which teams will be focusing on those goals.
Breakaway roulette then!
Ineos - Gianni Moscon
AG2R - Geoffrey Bouchard; Clément Champoussin; Andrea Vendrame
Alpecin - Gianni Vermeersch
Astana - Gorka Izagirre; Luis Leon Sanchez
Bahrain - Matej Mohoric; Jan Tratnik
Bardiani - Filippo Fiorelli
Bora - Matteo Fabbro; Felix Grossschartner
EF - Alberto Bettiol
Groupama - Rudy Molard
Intermarché - Quinten Hermans
Israel - Patrick Bevin; Alessandro De Marchi
Lotto Soudal - Thomas de Gendt
Movistar - Matteo Jorgenson; Dario Cataldo; Antonio Pedrero; Davide Villella; Nelson Oliveira
DSM - Nicholas Roche
Trek - Gianluca Brambilla; Bauke Mollema; Jacopo Mosca
UAE - Valerio Conti; Alessandro Covi; Diego Ulissi
Every rider here has the legs to win tomorrow. You've got climbers, puncheurs, rouleurs and that's because it will all depend who ends up in front, as it's likely that only a few of these men will find themselves there, there will be some riders in front with no chances of winning as they found themselves in front because of their pure power, or some luck if their moves stick.
As for the dynamics you should expect some moves on the main climb from the climbers as a large group will give opportunity for some to explore, as uncoordination can be real in big groups and everyone after the penultimate climb will be looking to save as much as possible for the final punch up to Guardia Sanframondi. Riders like Bauke Mollema and Felix Grossschartner are highly rated in that field whilst guys like Alberto Bettiol, Patrick Bevin and Quinten Hermans can be extremely dangerous as they're carrying great form and they are highly explosive, aswell as having a lot of pure power necessary for both getting in the breakaway and also joining opportunist moves towards the end.
I don't see the GC group fighting neither for the win or bonifications, a miracle can happen though, if it does happen it will likely be a sprint finish between them where Egan Bernal, Dan Martin, Giulio Ciccone and Nick Schultz would be the main names to consider in such an ascent.
Prediction Time
⭐ Moscon, Bouchard, Champoussin, LL.Sanchez, Mohoric, Fiorelli, Fabbro, Hermans, Jorgenson, Cataldo, Brambilla, Vermeersch, Conti
His form came late in the spring, instead of the cobbled classics he's now where needs to be at the Giro. He's tried to capitalize already but no doubt Alberto Bettiol will take a win here, let's see if tomorrow is the day.
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