As exoected the stage was hit by a flurry of crosswinds and very early on there were big splits and differences but all groups were in the end connected. Despite a crash in the final part of the stage again putting several GC contenders in distress the wind didn't make much effect besides a whole lot of tension. In the end it was a sprint, a very messy on at fact and easily Arnaud Démare took his third win beating Sagan in a little irregular sprint, Michael Matthews finished a distant but good third.
Positive: Démare and Groupama playing it perfectly again, first week isn't even over and they've got 3 wins already.
Negative: Nothing to note, some riders were on the brink of loosing time but everyone got home safely.
The Route
Stage 8 is a day for either a breakaway or a sprint, a pan-flat start but a hilly second half, a lot of rolling terrain and small climbs will make the difference no matter who is discussing the stage.
The Monte Sant'Angelo is the main climb of the day, the one that will put most of the sprinters on the line if it does fall for that side, not a hard climb but it's enough to make some damage. From there on it's just a whole lot of rolling roads, a lot of little climbing and descending into Vieste.
If it falls for the sprinters the finish in Vieste the finish isn't technical and should be quite a simple sprint, favouring exactly the rider with the most power and not so much the leadouts. There's a 1Km climb at 9% with 9.5Km to go, it should be a springboard for whoever is contesting the stage, if it falls for the peloton it could dislodge remaining sprinters, and in a breakaway possibly be the section where the decisive move may come.
The Weather
A small southeastern breeze, the direction is ideal to see damage in the peloton but the intensity shouldn't put anyone in distress.
The Favourites
It's a stage that has a likely outcome of a breakaway however with riders (yes, again) like Sagan and Matthews I wouldn't be surprised to see them control the early break in order to have a good chance of bringing the peloton over to the finish. It's a slightly harder stage than the ones Démare won and wind won't be a limiting factor, that pinch point with 9.5Km to may (or well, may not) be too much for Démare and he doesn't have a team that can climb unlike the other two. However seeing how strong the Frenchman has been riding he must be considered a main contender alongside the other two if the peloton decides the stage, the points jersey is on the line but that will put pressure on the punchy riders not on him, so I think Groupama will have a day to go in the wheels.
Matthews and Sagan alongside their teams have to make the first part of the stage really fast so that they can then take the rolling part of the stage slightly easier and have riders to support and control in the end, wouldn't be surprised to see Matthews himself make a move or be active, Sunweb has some men for the GC for now also and don't seem to much into burning them for the chance of a stage win. Alongside them riders like Andrea Vendrame, Fabio Felline could also be there as wildcards looking for their chance of a win, they haven't been far.
Regarding puncheurs riders like Diego Ulissi who will be looking forward for the climb and UAE has reasons to work as they've got no GC ambitions going on and a solid team, Jhonatan Narvaez and Rúben Guerreiro are riders who I expect to be there ready to move, or maybe be in the break if the right opportunity presents itself. The GC riders will have to be watchful, I don't expect moves from them tomorrow however riders like Fuglsang, Kelderman or Konrad like these short steep climbs and could follow wheels into a dangerous move.
Regarding breakaway yeah it's not easy, the start is pan-flat so doesnt really favour those that can climb well, but the climbs at the same time aren't that hard, so if no team really pushes the pace before the first climb it's one for the break, Thomas de Gendt has here a very very suiting day and he looks on form, feels like he's got a win in his legs and tomorrow will be one of his best chances. Jhonatan Restrepo, Enrico Battaglin, Stéphane Rossetto, Tanel Kangert, Sander Armée, Davide Villela and Giovanni Visconti are some of the riders who I expect to see trying to get in the breakaway and could realistically win from it, some of them could also be wildcards in case of a peloton finish.
Prediction Time
⭐ Démare, Konrad, Narvaez, Felline, Vendrame, Restrepo, Villela, Guerreiro, Konrad
Tomorrow for me it's a win for the breakaway. I think there will be interest to chase in the peloton though so I don't say it very confidently, however when writing for the Giro I had my mind made up that this was a day for a break, the start is controllable and Sagan/Matthews are yet to win and want points, but the finale is very bumpy and rolling and it suits an escapee group and there's serious quality in stage-hunters by now, Giovanni Visconti is my choice!
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