It was a thrilling stage in the Giro as once again big gaps weren't made but there was big action throughout the whole day, with firstly a very dangerous early breakaway having to be reeled in, dangerous splits in the mountains halfway through the stage had several GC riders in big risk of falling out of the GC contention. Most of them made it through though, Gino Mader got himself in the reduced breakaway that was eventually let loose and he took a big win on the race's first summit finish, just holding on the chasing peloton where Egan Bernal attacked and came home second with Dan Martin and Remco Evenepoel following.
Positive: Bahrain made the best out of yesterday's misfortune, taking a win with exceptional team work and having Caruso thrive in the climbs. Bernal would've wanted more support but he still took time on Vlasov/Carthy/Yates so it was a good day. Attila Valter rode phenominally with the best and is the new pink jersey.
Negative: Some suffered today, caught in the splits was De Marchi who ended up not having a proper chance to defend his lead. Pozzovivo was also caught outside the main split and has lost GC hopes, aswell as George Bennett who did make it but cracked completely in the final climb. Jai Hindley lost 2:26 on Bernal, not out of GC but it's a big loss.
The Route
Sprint stage number 4. Not a pan-flat one like some that we've seen so far, definitely a tricky one with a complicated section halfway through the stage including a KOM point in Chieti and a puposefuly placed string of hills, before coming back next to the Adriatic so that the riders will have an (on paper) relaxed aproach to Termoli.
It's not an easy finale at all, there's a little nasty ramp inside the final 2 kilometers after a sharp turn, it won't dislodge any sprinter from the peloton but it will suffocate some and there is no time to recover. Keeping control over that section and having that max power spike untouched will be crucial for the sprint.
Although it looks like, it's not actually that technical of a finale, you can keep the speed really well through most of those corners so what's important is to be well positioned for that corner with 1.7 kilometers to go and from there on, keep it and save as much for the sprint.
The Weather
The wind will have some changes of direction throughout the day. It will be felt, and by the sea it can turn dangerous, generally a headwind throughout the first half of the stage, crosswinds from inland in the second half, we should have a headwind until just after the 2Km mark and a tailwind for the sprint, if the wind is felt.
The Favourites
It's a very tricky finish, that simple. Unlike yesterday this one isn't easy to predict, because positioning at 2Km to go will be decisive for the outcome of the stage. The ramp won't see attacks, but if the team's sacrifice a lot of leadout to enter that section in front we may see few riders capable of chasing in the last kilometer which can open the door for an opportunist.
The sprint is the likely scenario though. At this point it's safe to say Groenewegen is unlikely to be there in the end, Dekker consequently likely the same situation as they'll look to be racing in a block. I think Merlier will suffer in the end, but the tailwind sprint does suit him, Alpecin can give Gianni Vermeersch a chance though in such finale, then you have Ewan who on paper would easily go through the ramp confortably, but then again sometimes he doesn't, and seeing positioning is so crucial and a tailwind sprint is on the way it definitely isn't perfect for him.
Then you have the riders who fit into all scenarios and have done so so far. Giacomo Nizzolo has been second twice already in the bunch sprints, I reckon he'll do so again because he's really strong and experienced but then lacks the little bit of power needed for the win, in his best Elia Viviani should also be there and working properly in the end fighting for the win, you have Fernando Gaviria who seems to be climbing very well, but questions lie over if he's capable of beating his rivals in the sprint, and Peter Sagan who will be there, who has a very suiting finale but is unlikely to have the peak power to win. Podium is likely though...
In Canale Davide Cimolai finished second, it was a big surprise and because of that he is surely taking good confidence for tomorrow. The Italian also has Patrick Bevin who should love the toughness of the finish and an experienced leadout, Filippo Fiorelli did really well in the mountains in Sestola so I would assume he'll do really well here too as he's been nailing his positioning despite a reduced leadout, same as Matteo Moschetti who's been performing decently so far. Intermarche will have 2 big cards to play, one in Quinten Hermans who is a strong puncheur for such a finish and Andrea Pasqualon who can survive the uphill really well for a fast man, both solid contenders for a Top10, and Andrea Vendrame who has a chance to finally show his worth here in the Giro.
Prediction Time
⭐ Groenewegen, Dekker, Bevin, Fiorelli, Moschetti, Hermans, Pasqualon, Vendrame
He's been looking good so far, with a really set leadout. Simone Consonni will be able to do a magnificent work for Viviani I'm sure and this time the win won't escape, as the powerhouses will be suffocated.
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