It was perhaps the day that most difference made so far in the Giro. The risk of wind and a technical dangerous finale put the peloton under constant pressure, the win came from Caleb Ewan who seized the suiting finale, winning in front of Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani. The stage was marked by the late crashes though, who have taken Mikel Landa out of the race and has made Pavel Sivakov and Joe Dombrowski fall from the GC fight.
Positive: Ewan taking that big win he needed from the race.
Negative: Merlier who had a mechanical in the sprint, and the riders who crashed out of the race or contention that I've mentioned.
The Route
We're getting on stage 6 the first summit finish of the race as the Apennines will leave their mark in the race once again. 3600 meters of climbing, the stage starts immediately with a hilltop which is good to form a quality breakaway, and then the stage is full of some small bumps until the final climb with the exception of...
The Forca di Gualdo, not an easy climb at all featuring 10.4Km at 7.4, a consistent climb that never eases out too much. Summiting with 71 kilometers to go and having some more hilltops right after it will be felt, the whole way will then be downhill though until the final ascent.
The San Giacomo ascent isn't a brutal one, but it will be a tough challenge for everyone but when you go as fast up a mountain as the top climbers do, slipstreaming has a big importance. The first 10Km will be ridden at pace, and the peloton will remain bulky as it averages just over 5%, and although there are no hard ramps - it's a very consistent climb - there won't be any special places to put a dig, everyone can somewhat pace their way up to the finish without big losses. The final 5.5Km average 7.6% and there may be some moves there, specially if a stage win is up for grabs alongside some bonus seconds.
The Weather
The rain will remain hidden for another day it seems (although there is a possibility it'll appear in the final hour or two of racing) and the wind won't be too different. Gusts may be felt though in exposed areas, coming from the southwest normally, would mean if felt generally a headwind trend throughout the day and the same on the final climb but there's a lot of direction changes.
The Favourites
There is a debate in my head which is, is it a breakaway day or not? You see that ramp at the start is favourable for strong climbers to go in front, and the day isn't overly hard to see anyone really destroying the field. However when you look at the context of the stage that changes, you've seen Deceuninck pushing yesterday surely to get either Evenepoel or Almeida in pink, tomorrow the same can happen with them or Astana who have Vlasov in the lead regarding the GC men, but you also have Israel who have a chance of keeping the jersey and will fight to keep it as any day in it is very important. With Landa out of the race I don't expect Bahrain to be pushing now, they were the team with most reasons to push but that is now changed.
Without Pavel Sivakov in the race for GC now I think there are less restrictions as to Egan Bernal's attacking. They had 2 cards, now they have only Bernal if everything goes normal, he may to cause some more damage, on Yates specially. You had also Hugh Carthy and Alexander Vlasov riding really well and the climb is also really good for both of them, they are both fans of long big-ring climbs, specially the Russian who maybe will ride more conservatively as he has a chance to get in the pink jersey.
Giulio Ciccone is almost a local, that may have some impact too but honestly I don't seem him doing as well in the climb as he did yesterday, although I don't doubt that he's capable of proving me wrong. Obviously you have someone like Simon Yates who can easily have a strong day and obbliterate the competition like he has in the future, but don't expect BikeExchange to be doing any work aswell as Dan Martin who will be hoping to keep pink on his team's shoulders, Evenepoel should also enjoy the more constant effort as will the pure climbers who've lost time like Sivakov, Hindley or Buchmann who can definitely have a much better result tomorrow. You've got also outsider who are having so far a brilliant race like Davide Formolo and Alberto Bettiol who aren't (in my opinion of course, you can dispute) climbers, but they clearly have good form and on their best day they can go over this one with the best in an ascent like this, with Landa out of the run I would expect Damiano Caruso to be in front aswell as he's carrying great form.
As for breakaway chances they exist. It's still early in the race and many riders haven't shown their true faces, it's never an easy guess in the opening week. You've got names widely mentioned like Bauke Mollema and Bora's Felix Grossschartner and Matteo Fabbro who can definitely get a win if they have the right chance, but lots of outsiders will be popping. Rudy Molard, Gianluca Brambilla, Nicolas Roche, Harm Vanhoucke, Dario Cataldo, Matteo Jorgenson, Clément Champoussin, Simon Carr are all names that should have freedom and no doubt have the quality to take a win at this level.
Prediction Time
⭐ Ciccone, D.Martin, Formolo, Grossschartner, Fabbro, Roche, Vanhoucke, Cataldo, Champoussin, Caruso
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