It was a quite weird stage we've seen in Callabria today. A day where a breakaway was never sure, the GC riders only had some action as Pozzovivo accelerated over the top of the climb but there were no gaps, with João Almeida keeping his pink jersey and extending his lead as Caicedo cracked. The win came through a big surprise, perhaps the heaviest winner in such a mountain stage over the last few years as Filippo Ganna didn't appear to even be Ineos' choice in the breakaway but one by one everyone else faded, and then when some riders joined him in front coming from the breakaway they didn't have the legs to keep up with him as he powered solo in the final kilometers of the climb.
Positive: Ganna taking an impressive win, Almeida staying in pink which he will likely keep for several more days now, some riders in the group hanging on well and remaining well position in the GC that you wouldn't initially expect.
Negative: McNulty and Knox both were in theory in the GC fight, both lost time today so it really doesn't look like it's what they should be targeting, Caicedo also dropped but that was somewhat expected.
The Route
Stage 6 is another stage for the sprinters but not the pure ones. It's quite hilly in the finish close to Matera with a 3rd category in the final third of the stage, the climb to Galleria Millotta isn't easy it's 4.7Km at 6.9% and it summits with a bit less than 26Km to go, some of the sprinters may be gone after this big bump in the profile even if we ignore the opening section of the stage which is far from flat.
The finish in Matera is hard, it's for the sprinters but it will be a suffocating one, lots of riders will have a big leadout into the final 2.7Km as there's a nasty ramp in there that reaches 10%, the finish is slightly technical as seen below and the final 1.2Km go off at an average of 2.6%, it will be a slow drag to the line but the riders that have made it to there won't struggle with gradients so it'll be surely a sprint finish.
The Weather
There's a moderate to strong wind from the northwest tomorrow. Luckily for the riders, it should mean there's quite a lot of headwind. However there are some dangerous crosswind sections and my main focus point would be the turn over the day's sole categorized climb with 25.7Km to go, turns directly into a crosswind and the teams will be towards the front there. The final kilometers are quite technical with some tailwind as the main direction.
The Favourites
It's an interesting day once again. Breakaway chances were at first sight good to be honest with such a rolling start, but as the wind won't be favourable throughout the day, and some teams will roll near the front for positioning I think it will kill most breakaway chances.
So this is a day similar to Agrigento but a bit more towards the sprinters, the technical finish certainly does favour attacks, but those tough gradients are much shorter and the likes of Sagan and Matthews could surely answer attacks that would and probably will come in there. Those two names exactly are the main favourites, we should expect Bora and Sunweb trying to chase the break, pacing a bit in that categorized climb and leading it up to the final kilometers. Sagan looks sharper than Matthews, Matthews will well depend on a bit of luck I guess to take the win as he's had solid chances but hasn't so far capitalized at all, but he is trustworthy to be there.
Démare has climbed well but I think tomorrow may be too much for him, regarding sprinters better options come in the Italian Davide Ballerini who's been sprinting really really well this season even though he may be helping Almeida, Davide Cimolai for me is the only other "pure" sprinter who can make it through into the finish, but I have my doubts though.
The biggest threat should come from the puncheurs. Although I think it's hard to get gaps on that small uphill, there won't be much chasing power after and opportunists should come aplenty. Diego Ulissi is eyeing the points jersey, I'm not sure what his strategy will be but in either ways he has a good sprint and could surprise, his Italian compatriots could bring further danger, Andrea Vendrame is another one with a strong sprint and strong climbing legs, Matteo Sobrero is a puncheur on great form and no-one will be eyeing him, he's won today but honestly Ganna could again try tomorrow a sneaky move in the end honestly it's one that should suit him quite well, Giovanni Visconti and Enrico Battaglin for me are other riders that can surprise. Jonathan Narvaez and Tony Gallopin could surprise aswell I reckon.
As for rouleurs I've mentioned Ganna, I think Deceuninck have focus on Almeida so they won't race as agressively as expected, I'll say Mikkel Honoré his evident great form but I leave that as very unlikely, Josef Cerny is also on my eyesight, as Simon Clarke isn't really a rouleur but if he feels his best legs he could find a good opportunity tomorrow.
Prediction Time
⭐ Démare, Vendrame, Cimolai, Narvaez, Gallopin, S.Clarke
Going with a Peter Sagan win for tomorrow. He's been looking real sharp, and the team is willing to go with him, his climbing legs are looking good so I'm sure he can follow anyone to the line and outsprint, tomorrow he returns!
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