Joe Dombrowski took an amazing win in this brutal day in the Giro, unlike predicted there was no serious chasing early on in the rainy day which meant the next GC leader was in front, it was grind in dangerous roads and rough climbs but in the final one it was the American who had the best legs and took the biggest win of his career, beating new maglia rosa Alessandro De Marchi and shockingly strong Filippo Fiorelli. In the peloton it seemed to be a controled day in the end, but some moves in the final kilometer of the climb saw some names emerge, with Egan Bernal perhaps the most important gaining some seconds on Simon Yates and several other contenders.
Positive: All of the riders in the Top3 got a brilliant result on their own right, profiting from a lucky breakaway and earning it. In the GC guys you've seen Bernal giving food feedback, from the chasing group also Bettiol was a very nice surprise.
Negative: Buchmann, Sivakov and Hindley dropped 34 seconds to the first GC riders to arrive, not huge gaps but it's not meaningless time. 1:29 loss for George Bennett and Tobias Foss is heavy, and João Almeida (sad to write this...) seems to have dropped out of the GC, at the very least took a big blow as he struggled in the final climb and lost over 4 minutes in the GC fight. Harm Vanhoucke also completely dropped out of the GC fight.
The Route
Back into the sprints. This is the Giro's response to the UAE Tour, a brutal 330 vertical meters will be climbed and I almost can't tell you where those meters are looking at the profile. The heavier the better is the sentence for tomorrow, the sprinters will have a new opportunity and they will have to seize it while they can. The stage will be an almost straight line from Modena to Cattolica passing through some of the most important cities in Emilia-Romagna and Marche.
This one is all about the finale once again. It won't be an easy one, 2.7Km to go sees a tight cortner followed by another 90º turn with 2.2Km to go, these will stretch out the peloton. None of the corners you see in the final kilometers are actually dangerous, it'll be a normal city sprint.
The Weather
At the finish it won't be felt much likely, but during the day there will be moderate/strong wind coming from generally the east. It'll change slightly directions, variating from cross tail to cross headwind and everything in between, but it'll be a dangerous day, likely with no rain but with a lot of tension. Weirdly, the wind will be coming from the mountains, the roads will be exposed but the wind will be coming from the side that has physical barriers in the mountains so it's not easy to say what effect the wind will actually have.
The Favourites
Can be a weird day. Twice I've said there's almost no chance the breakaway will succeed but twice... it did. As we say in Portugal "there's no two without three" and looking at how the wind will blow I really wouldn't be surprised, will be up to how well the break will be controlled early in the day, the sprinter teams can't allow big tanks up in front or they risk not seeing them again, like yesterday.
The sprint will be in a slight headwind if the wind is felt, and isn't so technical, so we could see the return of Caleb Ewan to the big stage, it will be one more suited to the lightweight fast men like Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani who have had strong leadouts to help them out, Cofidis has looked very good in both sprints so far.
Of course, you could see this disproven, the difference won't be as much and you could very well see Tim Merlier succeed once again, racing without pressure from now on and with a very capable leadout, you can also see Dylan Groenewegen take the win as I expected him to do so some days ago, I will once again expect him to be there as he did everything right in the last sprint, just didn't have the ideal position but tomorrow he'll have another opportunity to do so and he should be the rider with the best peak power in this peloton. You've got UAE, who had a fantastic leadout for Gaviria in the first bunch sprint, until they didn't... But anyway what are the chances that's gonna happen again? Yesterday Gaviria survived the climbs but then finished 6th in the peloton so he's sending all kinds of signals, but he always has the potential to take a big win.
There's Peter Sagan who won't win but will be there to grab points, and then you've got some sprinters, mostly Italian, who will be filling up the Top10 starting with Davide Cimolai who was impressive yesterday, if he can show those legs again in the sprint he's definitely capable of more than just a Top10 specially with the support he has, we've got Matteo Moschetti, Fillippo Fiorelli, Manuel Belletti, Intermarche duo Andrea Pasqualon and Riccardo Minali and finally DSM's German fast man Max Kanter who can also deliver a result.
Prediction Time
⭐ Sagan, Cimolai, Fiorelli, Moschetti
I'll back Caleb Ewan to make a return on a finish that'll suit him.
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