A big surprise hit the peloton this afternoon as Taco van der Hoorn managed to hold off the chasing peloton to take Intermarché's first win of the season. The day had a numerous breakaway but it never really seemed like they would succeed until the Dutch launched his solo move in the final 10 kilometers and started gaining time on the peloton. The lack of attacks in the peloton was noticeable as almost no-one tried to make a move, and that lack of pace meant the peloton came about just 4 seconds after the winner, where Davide Cimolai won the sprint ahead of Peter Sagan.
Positive: Intermarche getting a brilliant win here, also personally for van der Hoorn this win is career-shaping, a rider who struggled to get a contract for this year.
Negative: They did their job, but obviously Bora suffered from the "Matthews syndrome" where they worked hard all day long and got no gain from it. I will criticize Israel though because they could've gotten a win here but didn't really work for it during the day (although I do understand they don't have as many means to chase).
The Route
The first big GC challenge. Sure there were some seconds made in the initial time-trial but here we'll have the boys from the men separated as the riders arrive to the Apennines and will have a pretty nasty finale in Sestola to deal with. The first 82 kilometers of the stage are almost pan-flat, but from there on we have most of the 3000 meters of climbing the peloton will face.
Those will be ridden mostly in uncategorized climbs, yet the climb to Montemolino will be the longest of the day and will mark the spot the grupetto will form surely, not a hard climb but the final 2Km have an average of 11.6% (I take my not hard back) with ramps up to 16%. It will summit with 43.5 kilometers to go and from there on the rolling roads will keep going all the way to Sestola.
Colle Passerino. This is the way into Sestola this year, the little town is no stranger to hosting Giro finales but it's certainly not normal to have such a sharp ascent marking it. 4.3Km at 10%, it's hard no matter what and there are some suffocating ramps there in the middle. It summits with a mere 2.5Km from the finish, whoever's feeling good will be looking to make a move because in such gradients differences can be made and for sure some GC contenders will still be far from their best legs at this time of the race.
The road into the finish then is furiously fast at first and a small flat run into the line in the town center.
The Weather
Grim. If this is a sign of what's to come then this will be an incredibly difficult race. The gusts will be quite strong as the peloton will face southern wind, meaning a tailwind for most of the final climb and run-up to the line but a headwind through most of the stage, but most important tomorrow there is no escaping the rain. It didn't appear today despite being forecast, but tomorrow we're set to have heavy rain in the mountains. Wether or not it'll actually be heavy we'll find out tomorrow, but this time there's no escaping it.
The Favourites
It's a rough stage. The rain will make it very dangerous and unfortunately I predict some crashes will happen, chances are at least one or two GC riders will be involved, possibly in the descent leading up to the final climb. It's the first week and I expect most riders will only be thinking of not loosing time and keeping themselves in contention for the race victory. If they make it whole to the final climb though things will change, unlike most previous years it's a steep climb where you can't hide and attacks will cause damage, whoever feels good will make a move even if just in the final kilometer of the climb.
There are some riders I would expect to see on the attack because they have a suiting stage, starting with Dan Martin who will love an ascent like this and has time to make up already, then going onto EF who have Hugh Carthy who will also love this climb's characteristics and of the GC riders he should be one that deals with the rain quite well, having also support of Ruben Guerreiro who I expect to see doing very well too. I wouldn't put them on the top list of climbers but with the rainy conditions I wouldn't be surprised to see some great performances from riders like Pello Bilbao, Romain Bardet, Marc Soler and Davide Formolo who coincidentally are also fans of these more explosive ascents. Additionally I'd put in Vincenzo Nibali, but I don't believe he's having the legs yet to discuss a win.
On the other side you have the teammates of two of those riders in Mikel Landa and Jai Hindley who should be putting their eyes on the final week, but I would also have most other GC contenders who will thrive in the high mountains but may be more at risk in these harder to control days like Egan Bernal and Pavel Sivakov, and generally all teams with more than 1 GC option will be riding to keep them both in touch like Deceuninck's João Almeida, Remco Evenepoel and Fausto Masnada, or Bora's Emanuel Buchmann, Felix Grossschartner and Matteo Fabbro (this applies to teams mentioned above). There are riders like Simon Yates who like agressive racing, he may go wild on the climb, wouldn't be surprised to see explosive climbers like George Bennett and Harm Vanhoucke who can do really well aswell, you have Alexander Vlasov which I see as someone who will be fighting not to loose his race in the rain, and I'll put in Domenico Pozzovivo as a wildcard always to take into account.
I won't consider the breakaway chances for tomorrow yet, the start is pan-flat and not good for good climbers to get in there, but with today's outcome you never know...
Prediction Time
⭐ Guerreiro, Sivakov, Bardet, Soler, Formolo, Landa, Almeida, Buchmann, G.Bennett, Vlasov
I think Simon Yates will open up his tab tomorrow. Although I don't think the conditions favour him, the British likes to attack, and this kind of climb is almost ideal for him, and he'll be looking to give his good form continuation by attacking the race, but not pink as it should fall for either Foss or Evenepoel.
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