They usually say the first mountain stage of a race tells you a lot about everyone's condition and today did leave a huge mark in the race. Firstly the two main favourites on the startline have lost huge chunks of time, Geraint Thomas crashed hard in the neutralized start and has lost the GC race completely and Simon Yates who was the overwhelming favourite to win today cracked with no explanation. This left the door open for plenty of riders as Nibali and Kruijswijk look distant from their peak form, João Almeida has climbed his way into the pink jersey with the same time as Jonathan Caicedo who went into the breakaway and took a really strong win for EF. Harm Vanhoucke was the fastest rider of the peloton followed by Kelderman and then the Nibali group, the gaps weren't huge amongst them but were for those who had a bad day.
Positive: Nibali for me is the big winner of the day. He was for me 1 of 3 main contenders to the Giro, he's the only one who survived. Kruijswijk looked good aswell and is now also in a good position for the win, essentially everyone in the front group was a winner today. Almeida getting in pink with a brilliant climb, Vanhoucke a massive surprise as the fastest in the peloton and Kelderman also won some seconds over the group.
Negative: Geraint Thomas was the obvious looser of the day after crashing in the neutral start and loosing 12 minutes, Simon Yates had a bad day and lost almost 4 minutes to his main rivals which I think may be the end to his winning aspirations, he can still do very well but only if he has no more bad days and has nothing but great mountain performances from now on.
The Route
Stage 4 is the final day in Sicily, and a really interesting one! Looking at the profile it's quite simple, flat/climb/descent/flat, however a profile like this is quite unusual in a Grand Tour, it's a stage that should fall for the sprinters although the climb halfway through the day could make for meaningful accelerations that can drop sprinters. Besides it can be a good breakaway day it will depend on who picks up the responsabilities in the peloton.
Portella Mandrazzi is 18.5Km long at 4.2%, not a steep climb by any means but it is quite long, and whilst the climbers will ride gently up it the sprinters may struggle specially the ones who can't climb well. For sure they'll be put under pressure, the climb summits with 64Km to go but there's a long descent to recover after it specially as it is quite technical and can be dangerous if it rains.
The finish in Villafranca Tirrena isn't overly technical, there's a trio of corners within the final 2 kilometers and and a 90º degree bend with around 800 meters to go into the beachside finish.
The Weather
There's going to be relatively meaningful northwestern wind, means a mostly headwind throughout the stage, also possibly crosswinds can be present in that final part of the stage. As for the rain there's risk, the descent is also quite technical, it can mean for a very dangerous section of the stage if someone gets in front with intention.
The Favourites
It's an interesting day, one for a bunch sprint however one that has several traps over the way that can stop that. It should nevertheless be a day for a sprint, riders like Arnaud Démare and Fernando Gaviria will be praying the race isn't attacked in the climb as they are the fastest men on the startline, but dealing with these long climbs isn't their favourite. It could get smashed in there, or split in the descent, and it isn't easy to see them making it because I imagine teams like Sunweb and Bora will force it a bit because they have a good chance to take a stage and have Sagan and Matthews in seemingly good form.
The dynamics between those 4 riders and teams will decide the stage, they deserved more writing but I think it's all there really, if Bora/Sunweb push they should have the two men to beat, if they don't Groupama/UAE will have the two main favourites. Wildcards though are aplenty, Elia Viviani riding home should try to hang on as he ambitions a stage win, his teammate Simone Consonni is another good name to consider as he also climbs well and may get his opportunity if Viviani can't resist. Then there's Deceuninck, Alvaro Hodeg will struggle on the climb if it's hard but Davide Ballerini will enjoy it, so what they'll do is just wait and see, with the race lead and Masnada/Knox riding well they won't surely want to burn matches unnecessarily. Israel should be the same situation with Barbier the pure sprinter and Cimolai the more complete sprinter, whilst Rick Zabel I really don't know what to expect of him!
Some riders like Ulissi and Vendrame for example would love a brutal race up the climb, they have good sprints for their climbing ability but it's hard to see that scenario, however a breakaway possibility isn't impossible to guess for tomorrow to be honest, riders like Thomas de Gendt, Jan Tratnik, Josef Cerny and Sander Armée are those that pop more to me looking at the profile and race so far.
Prediction Time
⭐ Viviani, Cimolai, Hodeg, Consonni, de Gendt
Near miss in Agrigento, I think he had the legs just didn't follow the right move, tomorrow he and Sunweb will surely make a move on the climb because the sprinters won't be hard to drop, Sunweb have a strong climbing team and may have support of other teams in order to split the group. Matthews to win tomorrow and make up for his usual "almost there" result.
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