Diego Ulissi won stage 2 of the Giro with an incredible sprint winning over Peter Sagan and Mikkel Honoré. The stage was relatively controlled and calm with the abandon of Alexander Vlasov being the highlight, the run-up to the climb was furious and when it looked like it was set to be a sprinter's day UAE ramped it up with 2Km to go, and after Wackermann attacked it all kicked off, Ulissi was the sharpest, and although Sagan caught up with the front group he was gassed and the Italian took the sprint, the peloton came just some seconds after with Ganna inserted who keeps his pink jersey.
Positive: Ulissi and UAE played their cards perfectly, attacking sharply and making the decisive move now leading the points classification, and Sagan actually now leading the KOM.
Negative: Astana have lost Lopez yesterday and Vlasov today, that being after they had to make some trades before the race due to a CV case. Needless to say they are in quite a bad position right now with very little support for Fuglsang in comparison with other teams.
The Route
On the third day we quickly move onto the high mountains. The stage is short with only 150Km in distance but it's a hard hard second half. With over 3500 meters of climbing most come in there, and although Etna is the only categorized climb the ascents to Nicolosi, Formazzo and Bv. di Vena are a total of 17Km at around 5%. Not brutal, but it will be felt before a short descent into the base of the climb.
Etna, of course, it's a regular appearance in the Giro but is being tackled by a non-traditional yet quite hard side with 19Km of climbing before the finish. Gaps will appear, fragilities will be exposed as the hardest kilometers are by the top, the race is very long but it is quite important to come into the race sharp as this is a real summit finish where some of the riders targeting the overall can loose minutes.
The Weather
Rain wise there should be none, wind wise it's a weird situation as in theory the wind will be weak however with very strong gusts. How reliable the forecast is I can't say, I'm assuming the gusts will be more felt in the climb as it's qute exposed and free of vegetation, means there could be a cross-headwind for the majority of the climb.
The Favourites
This is a day for the climbers, the GC guys and the ones that want to win the whole race. And although it's quite early don't be surprised to see some big moves, most GC guys should be thinking of the longevity of the race but at the same times if fragilities are visible, the climb is hard enough to put in some important time and that matters a lot. The climb isn't one you can rest, the hardest part is right in the end so there will be a showdown no doubt, and you know who the favourites are!
Looking at Tirreno Adriatico is the most accurate way to look at tomorrow, it included essentially everyone who will be tomorrow fighting for the win and Simon Yates should be the main name, he flew back in 2018 (on a different vertent) and it does look like this year he's the sharpest name to consider, he can handle any kind of climb and he's a confident pure climber, the right kind of rider for tomorrow. Back in Tirreno Geraint Thomas and Rafal Majka were second and third, whilst Thomas will be looking to race conservative as he's got a great time-trial already on his legs and will be riding defensive into the second week where he can do more damage, whilst Majka should be the opposite he had the biggest defeat yesterday and going into tomorrow already with the wrong mindset, full of pressure to gain time, and I don't know if he can but he's got good legs so for sure he's going to be on the lookout.
Vincenzo Nibali and Steven Kruijswijk are riders that should wait more for the third week. The time-trial isn't the perfect indicator to their form as the wind had them loose more time to Thomas than expected, they are brilliant riders when it comes to resisting and thriving in the third week, that's when I expect to see them, until Piancavallo I think they'll be riding wheels as much as they possibly can!
Everyone else I expect will be riding wheels, looking to perform as strong as they can and stay up there in the GC, it's a bit of a testing day to see where everyone's at. Jakob Fuglasng and Astana could surely try something tomorrow if it weren't for the immense bad luck they've been having, there's Deceuninck who may be ambitioning pink with João Almeida. Fausto Masnada and James Knox are solid climbers and I think that for now they will all try to keep themselves in overall contention and they could work well together even if dropped. Wilco Kelderman is a very good outsider to take into account, Pello Bilbao can bring in some great Tour form and take proveit of it, Ilnur Zakarin has no descent to tackle so I would say it's quite a suiting day for him, he's actually ridden Etna very well in 2017. Domenico Pozzovivo, Diego Ulissi, Ruben Guerreiro, not winners, but nice little outsiders I decided to include here.
Prediction Time
⭐ Kruijswijk, Nibali, Zakarin, Kelderman
I'm going with SImon Yates for the win, Tirreno was a great indicator that he's in good form and when he is he's hard to beat. He's set to take this win and take time on Thomas I reckon, and I think Thomas moves to pink.
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