The final mountain stage of the Giro delivered another exciting finale, it was a calm day until the final part of San Bernardino where DSM took charge of things, and on the technical descent they took off from the peloton, later to be joined by Damiano Caruso and Pello Bilbao. The two teams, and later Caruso/Bardet worked together to keep that gap and the Italian took a brilliant win after going solo in the final climb. Caruso shortened his gap to Bernal who finished second 24 seconds down, and Daniel Martinez.
Positive: Caruso and Bardet had a brilliant team attack and both benefited from it, Caruso mainly. Egan Bernal also passed his final mountain day very well, essentially confirming his Giro win as he's likely to be able to keep that gap to Caruso.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The final time-trial. Completely flat, even finishing some 49 meters below the start line, it's one for the pure engines, it does feature quite some sharp turns during the route but it won't matter much when you have very long straight sections where the stage will be won, and the GC decided.
The Weather
Nice temperatures and a slight northeastern breeze, shouldn't make much of a difference but will further help the heavier riders as there will be a slight tailwind in the fastest section of the route.
The Favourites
The final time-trial into Milano, it's a fast one and the man to beat is the one who dominantly took home the first stage, Filippo Ganna. Ineos is on the verge of taking another Grand Tour, last year he helped Hart into the win taking the win in the final day, and that scenario is likely to be repeated, despite Ganna having worked a lot throughout the race his closes competitor Remi Cavagna also hasn't been taking it easy, fighting for a chance at his own stage win but also working for his leaders. The route is fast, it suits both very well, but there are some outsiders that surprised on the opening day and can do so again tomorrow, specially with 3 weeks of fatigue settled in.
Edoardo Affini is perhaps the most notable name, coming in second in the opening day and being on the verge of taking the last bunch sprint we've had with a late attack, he has been saving himself more than the previous names. We can see some surprises, there are experienced riders all over the place, some that have been showing really good form like Jonathan Castroviejo, Alberto Bettiol and Patrick Bevin can very well finish on that Top3 if they have another day like they've had this week, men like Matteo Sobrero, Jan Tratnik and Nelson Oliveira have also had really good performance in this race and wouldn't be surprising to see them also rambling deep inside the Top10.
Furthermore, Luis Leon Sanchez, Maciej Bodnar, Michael Hepburn and Mathias Brandle are a nice set of experienced time-trialists who will have green card to go 100% in chase of a good result.
As for the GC fight I expect Egan Bernal to hang on and take the overall win, one he fully deserves. Damiano Caruso will likely ride quite well I do expect that from him, as João Almeida and Tobias Foss who are inside the Top10 and can additionally to that add a very strong result on the final day, both have been quite strong in this final week.
I think Martinez goes up to 5th, Almeida 6th, and for Bardet to 7th whilst Carthy will descend to 8th.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#78 Daniel Oss - You did your job well, take it easy and enjoy your time off, you've got another big one to do next month!
#172 Dario Cataldo - Take it easy too Dario, you did a good race showed good form.
#155 Tobias Foss - Ok Tobias you can do something big again tomorrow. No pressure though, you did your race and 9th is a brilliant result, taking up the leading role, being consistent and finishing inside the Top10 isn't for everyone on their first full Grand Tour. In the initial day you showed your potential, you're heavy enough to have the raw power for tomorrow so you go all-out, the time-trial will be around 32 minutes so you can take it at FTP throughout the whole distance essentially, you'll have quite some corners in the first half, it won't be dangerous but don't take too many risks it's not worth crashing on the final day, you'll have to accelarate out of them though hard to keep that speed above 50Km/h, take it controlled and in the final kilometers push a few more watts if you've got anything left in the tank.
Prediction Time
⭐ Castroviejo, Bettiol, Bevin, Tratnik, Oliveira, Almeida, Foss
Filippo Ganna isn't coming in completely fresh to the time-trial but neither did he last year, and he still won dominantely. I expect the same this year, no doubt.
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