As expected BikeExchange and Deceuninck controlled what was an easier mountain day in order to provide a chance for their leaders to battle for the stage and GC. Until the final climb not much has happened, Deceuninck set a hard pace throughout the final hour to set it up and Almeida was the first to attack on the final climb, shortly after Simon Yates bridged across and went on his own, never again to be caught hence taking his first stage win of the race, beating Almeida and Bernal who were the best of the rest. Bernal keeps his lead of 2:29 over Caruso and 2:49 over Yates.
Positive: Yates confirming his fine form, he took some time on Bernal but most importantly a win. If he wants to win the race he'll have to go from far tomorrow. Caruso kept his strong overall another day, Almeida attacked the riders ahead and is going after the Top5.
Negative: Nothing to note.
The Route
The final climbing stage. A colossus in the Alps, although it gives the riders a fairly gentle start in Verbania and a relatively short day in distance with just 164 kilometers of tarmac and the first 80 are almost pan flat as the race briefly enters Switzerland.
You can barely read the gradients and that always means the climb is hard. You've got a big one, slowly riding up the valley, the peloton will start the stage at 200 meters of altitude and will go up to over 2000 with barely a meter of descending. The Passo San Bernardino has a little downhill section halfway through, and you can see then how the 6.2% average gradient means it'll be a rough one, because the first 14 kilometers of the climb are consistently above 7%, and the final ones will be around it aswell. Adding the altitude and the extreme fatigue this climb can break some riders, and with the short but very technical descent afterwards we could see something like Agnello 2016 shortly after, summiting with 58 kilometers to go.
There will be little time to rest. The Splugenpass via it's easier side will send the peloton back into Italy but not before a 9Km climb at 7%, very constant but with it's hardest section in the final part of the ascent, going up to 2115 meters (exactly the same as the Col du Tourmalet). It summits with just under 30 kilometers to go, and we can see the race raided, specially as from the summit of this one to the base of the final climb you pretty much descend all the way.
It's not a brutal one, but again it's just pileup of climbs that will do it. It's not a very constant climb actually, it has a kilometer of flat roads halfway up riding through the little Alpine town of Madesimo where the organizers cruely placed an intermediate sprint, before riding it's toughest ramps afterwards, wrapping up the race for this year when it comes to riding in a group.
The Weather
The temperatures will be nice, forecast is of slight northern wind. This will make a difference, firstly will be harder for a breakaway to build a good gap, but regarding the GC fight it means the riders will likely sit on the Passo San Bernardino as it will have a slight headwind, but on the opposite have a tailwind on the Splugenpass, we should have the big moves there.
The Favourites
Egan Bernal and Daniel Martinez will have another tough day in the office as they have to one last time defend that pink jersey in the mountains. Bernal looked in control today however was never close to catching on Yates, Ineos will have to be controlling the race tomorrow to make sure BikeExchange don't get riders in front that can later raid the British team, and I expect a somewhat controlled race until the bottom of the first climb. I don't expect big moves there because of the wind, but Deceuninck at the very least will be setting a tough pace and try to put some of the riders ahead of Almeida under dificulty. The big moves will come on the second climb...
There is where Simon Yates has to attack, to win the race he should prior have someone up front so for sure you won't have a controlling BikeExchange like you had today, rather an offensive one at the start in order to provide a bridge later on. In the same position there is João Almeida who will want to attack the Top5, his disadvantage isn't as big though so I expect him to ride more conservatively, counter-attacking instead of attacking and taking advantage of the battle that's taking place for the higher steps.
Everyone else I expect to see somewhat conservative, as they shouldn't have the legs to move. That includes Vlasov, Carthy and Foss who don't seem to be able to get better than what they have so far, you may see Romain Bardet on the attack but only if he has the legs to do so which won't be easy. We may see Daniel Martin on the move as he has nothing to loose, he's not a GC threat to anyone I reckon despite being 10th but he can be an important ally to someone.
Everyone else, if they want a stage they have to go on a breakaway there is no other option. Jumbo I reckon will be those fighting the most, as Koen Bouwman and George Bennett are in good form and definitely look to have the legs to take a big win. It's the final mountain day, fatigue is very important at this point of the race, you've got some riders that are still firing all cilinders that can make the difference like Lorenzo Fortunato, Michael Storer or Eduardo Sepulveda who may get lucky and take an opportunist win.
Furthermore riders like Diego Ulissi and Vincenzo Nibali who are quite familiar with the starting place, Davide Formolo, Attila Valter and Rudy Molard of Groupama, Jan Hirt of Intermarché, Antonio Pedrero of Movistar (yes once again), Matteo Fabbro of Bora, Geoffrey Bouchard of AG2R and Simon Carr of EF who have their last chance to succeed here.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#132 Quinten Hermans - Ok listen tomorrow is the final day where we have a chance to win something so we go all in. What I say to you is what I say to everyone else on the team, breakaway or bust. Not just yours, but your job is to get Jan in the breakaway at all costs, have him spend as least as possible, and not go easy on the work. Depending on how many of you are in the group you see how much you push, get behind him when there is rotation and let him take tiny turns.
#117 Edward Ravasi - Edward today was your stage, tomorrow I expect a solid performance from you, you need to get in the breakaway. If Lorenzo is there you help him out, try to hide but then when he needs support don't hesitate on giving it. If he's not you've got green card, it won't be easy but do your best, you never know when you may get lucky, early on don't attack yourself but try to follow the wheels, don't burn matches too early.
#105 Jens Keukeleire - Jens your role tomorrow is to help Hugh as much as you can, but stay watchful and if you see a good breakaway may form try to get in front with Simon and get him in the head of the race, we can still get a stage win out of the day but we need to go on the attack for it, you've got the engine many don't so make good use of it before the mountains.
Prediction Time
⭐ Vlasov, D.Martin, Fortunato, Sepulveda, Storer, Formolo, Valter, Fabbro, Carr
It's the final day, João Almeida hit the bar twice, he's growing stronger and stronger as the race goes by and tomorrow's climbs will suit him better, but above all I think he'll take advantage of the battle between Yates and Bernal to follow wheels and be the strongest on the final climb.
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