This was a day where drama was quite everywhere. After a rainy start the race was neutralized on demand of some teams and cut to less than half on what was a pan-flat day through the Italian plains. When the race restarted it quickly saw a strong group of rouleurs attack as expected and with Bora the sole team chasing it quickly became obvious the win was in front. The winning move came around 20Km to go where from an attacking group Josef Cerny powered and went solo and incredibly held on the chasing group to take a big win. Victor Campenaerts and Jacopo Mosca took the remaining podium places whilst the GC remained untouched.
Positive: CCC getting their good win, and well yeah that's pretty much the only winner of today, Démare didn't go with the mistake of last year and sealed the points jersey, and well the riders who called to cut the stage also ended up winning.
Negative: Sagan failing to get the points jersey in yet another Grand Tour, I guess the time has finally come.
*Just as an aside, if you want to support these previews and give it a shot, I have a subscription where I tip for cycling. This year there won't be more racing besides the Vuelta but next year I'll be back. I'm mentioning this because today I have tipped both Cerny (400), Campenaerts (300) and Mosca (inplay 26), and this is an opportunity that you will not want to miss out on!
The Route
The final stage. Day 20 of the race and the final opportunity for the climbers. The profile has been changed because of Covid restrictions in France and so the new route is made of a traverse into Sestriere and a local circuit.
Although obviously not as hard of a stage it's still a mountain day and one that has a flat first half but then a slow but very long drag into Sestriere from Pinerolo, and don't be fooled although the gradients aren't sharp all climbs summit above 2000 meters and the first one goes from 300 to over 2000 of altitude, it can be dangerous. The first passage isn't at the finish line but a little higher and it summits with 52Km to go.
Sestriere with it's 11.5Km at 6%, we usually see finishes in Sestriere but climbed from the other side after the Col de Finestre, but this year the climb is tackled via it's hardest side, a proper climb after a proper day, a proper race. How much relief everyone will feel once they reach the finish here!
There are 2 ascents of this mountain one summits with 27Km and the other coincides with the finish.
The Weather
Very cold temperatures as been the case lastely but the wind shouldn't bother. A cold day but one that should be quite hot!
The Favourites
The race is being raced into Milano with an individual time-trial, but tomorrow still can be called the last chance to make differences for the climbers. Everything is so tight and the main GC guys will race for every single second on the road so it's hard to see a breakaway win in such day, but it can happen due to the race's freak nature.
As the final opportunity I expect some riders to go bananas in Sestrieres but at the same time the start is pan-flat so it's far from ideal for those climbers looking to get into it. Ineos have a lot of power but will be all-in for Hart the same way Sunweb will be all in on Hindley/Kelderman. The rope is very tight on whoever wants to win from a break, I'll give some chances on riders like Kangert and Dombrowski who usually ride the third week very well, Domen Novak who's been having the performance of his life this last week, Attila Valter because I still have confidence in his quality, Ben O'Connor who's also been on the form of his life, and as wildcards if they have a last day with great legs in James Knox and Brandon McNulty (but to not I doubt these two).
However the GC riders should own the day and really it is quite a simple thought to have for tomorrow:
Ineos will attack, seeing how strong Ganna, Castroviejo and Dennis are they will push the pace hard at some point to try to break Sunweb and Kelderman as they have.
Sunweb will race defensively, try to keep Kelderman steady and also have the riders to support the duo when needed, they will not force the pace at any point.
Riders with nothing to loose, Nibali. He's won the race twice, was the main favourite in my opinion after Kruijswijk, Thomas and Yates left, for him finishing 8th means nothing, even though he has little team he has really no reason not to try and pull off a massive mountain raid, specifically in the first climb is my thought. Fuglsang may be an ally in this possible adventure. As for Bilbao and Almeida I reckon they'll hang on as best they can, Bilbao may attack but only on the final climb and I reckon Hart will do the same as the gaps are so small. They have to penetrate and break the Sunweb barrier, and hope Kelderman falters, the climb isn't as steep as the Stelvio that broke the Dutchman. Hindley will stick to Hart's wheel.
Prediction Time
⭐ Almeida, Kangert, Dombrowski, Novak, O'Connor
Going hard going deep. Pello Bilbao is my call for tomorrow, big surprise yesterday for me, he did the Tour so I wandered if fatigue would get to him, but it clearly hasn't. Pello is a three-week expert, he came to form during it in the Tour and I touted him to win the final mountain stage, so I will do it again because I recognize the massive talent he's got even within the world's best.
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