It was a dangerous dangerous day. With some of the favourites for the TT leaving the gates early so did crashes, influenced by the strong gusts of crosswind and the dangerous switchbacks in the descent and poor road conditions. Many were the riders that came down including Miguel Angel Lopez who had to abandon and Victor Campenaerts, and between those that thrived was the man to beat Filippo Ganna who easily took a dominant win and is the first leader of the Giro. Big surprise João Almeida finished second in his GT debut and Mikkel Bjerg and between the favourites, early started Geraint Thomas and Simon Yates have got some big gains over their rivals, much more than they'd expect.
Positive: Ineos were no doubt the big winners of the day taking the win and a big step in the overall fight, going into the climbs already with big advantage. João Almeida and Tobias Foss are big wildcards but this brilliant start to the race will surely get some ideas in their head. Simon Yates also gained some very good time on most of his rivals, and a little mention to Rick Zabel who sprinted his way towards the KOM jersey.
Negative: Astana took a big hit with Lopez abandoning, Fuglsang loosing a big 1:24 to Thomas, and Majka loosing 1:37 with some more important names loosing over a minute. Weather conditions played a big role in this gap, but nevertheless an important loss.
The Route
Stage 2 is already a harsh start to the race, after today's exciting start to the race that's set some seconds of difference between the GC favourites tomorrow they'll be on their toes once again as the stage has a small hilltop finish in Agrigento. The stage is far from pan-flat but it doesn't present major dificulties throughout the day, but the run-up to the final climb will be furious and the pace won't slow down.
The drag up to the line in Agrigento is 3.7Km long, it won't be a long effort, it's suiting for the puncheurs but mainly the puncheur/sprinter kind of rider, the gradients never get too high it's a rather constant climb but those final hundred meters get a bit more shallow which should in theory allow a reduced bunch sprint.
The Weather
The wind will calm down tomorrow luckily. Had it been today and could be a superbly dangerous day with crosswinds by the sea, however tomorrow should be a little breeze, mostly tailwind crosswinds aswell as in the final climb where it could be cross-headwind if it's exposed.
The Favourites
This is a finish for punchy sprinters, have to get that out of the way right away. The begining of the stage is quite rolling which could motivate strong riders into going to the front, however I think it's quite early for such a win to come. Ineos won't chase hard but they'll be there setting the pace and Sunweb surely will want to make sure everything comes back together, aswell as some other teams who may put in a bit of work force.
Michael Matthews should be the main favourite. The final climb is a bit hard but not enough for the punchy sprinters, Matthews has been climbing superbly and has a better sprint than the punchy guys and as for the other sprinters it's a matter of them trying to hang on as best they can, and I'm talking guys like Peter Sagan and Arnaud Démare, they can climb for sure but this isn't a short effort it will take quite some minutes and although maybe they can survive in the bunch they may not have the legs to sprint it out in the end. Riders like Andrea Vendrame and Davide Ballerini are a mix, they can for sure climb with the best although they may struggle a bit more than Matthews and also have a decent sprint to wrap it off in the end.
As for the puncheur side Diego Ulissi is the main man to consider, one of the big names for tomorrow he's coming in great form and if it weren't for Matthews for sure we'd have UAE push tomorrow. They still may, but I think Ulissi will stick to the wheels and go all-in in the sprint it should be the smart decision, Jonathan Narvaez is another very interesting name to add to the list after his recent success in Italy. Guys like Enrico Battaglin, Jhonatan Restrepo for example have finished low in the standings today, could be wildcards as Battaglin is coming in good form and Restrepo was one of the stars of pre-lockdown.
Regarding climbers I think it's not hard enough, guys like Yates and Thomas have nice sprint though in case the climb is raced full speed, motivation will be high but yeah it takes a very specific race scenario to have it happen, I think they'll want to save as much as they can for tomorrow. I don't discard wildcard moves for example by Ganna to win solo, Consonni to be another sprint option in there, or some other moves that may go with 1.5Km to go that can be successful if there's a struggle to chase.
Prediction Time
⭐ Démare, Consonni, Battaglin, Restrepo, Vendrame, Ganna
Going with a Michael Matthews win for tomorrow. Has the form, has the climbing leg, has the sprint, the stage isn't hard enough to shed his team so even if it comes down to just Sunweb chasing attacks on the final climb they surely will keep it under control. I think it comes down to a sprint and Matthews has a nice story with the Giro.
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