It was a day for the breakaway. Right from the start it seemed obvious with the big battle to get it in, and with many of the pre-stage favourites in it it was obvious. A fight took place from the start of the final ascents, Remi Cavagna was riding solo throughout most of it but cracked in the final ascent where Alberto Bettiol who was chasing solo took the head of the race and won solo. Simone Consonni rode to second with Nicolas Roche third.
Positive: Bettiol getting the win he's fought for a lot, finally.
Negative: Nothing negative to note. Those who needed to get in front did those who missed the move couldn't do anything about it, but there was no major absence or mishap.
The Route
We've got the penultimate mountain stage tomorrow that will see the peloton ride up and over the Alps once again as the GC riders will look to blow up their rivals. On the menu is a 166 kilometer-long stage that gets the peloton from Milano's outskirts into the lakes region including the Gignese climb which will summit with 83Km to go, and then after a technical descent the peloton will steer away from the lakes via de Passo Della Colma which is a much easier affair but an ascent that will be much closer to the finish with just 38 kilometers to go.
The stage is all about the final climb though, after a nice valley ride the peloton will go up the...
Alpe di Mera. This climb reminds me so much of the Alpe di Pampeago, the only difference is that on the map it resembles the Alpe d'Huez. 24 hairpins by my count, quite literally puts the French giant to shame doesn't it...
Hairpins aside it's a nasty climb, it has no place to rest, it slowly ramps up to double digits where it just stays for a gruelling amount of kilometers, but it won't be a climb where you can just "calmly" TT all the way up, it's one that presents an hairpin in an average of around every 400 meters so for sure you'll see riders using them to make moves.
The Weather
Less sunnier than these last few days, there's a small chance of rain throughout the day, with the wind not likely to have an effect on the stage.
The Favourites
The sharks have smelled blood... Egan Bernal didn't have a terrible day, but his crack on Sega di Ala was something much different from how he presented himself throughout the race up until that point. Wether it was back issues or just a regular less good day, he did loose time on Simon Yates and showed weakness and for sure that scenario will be on the back of his head tomorrow and he won't be as confident, even with a strong team and an incredible Daniel Martinez next to him. Simon Yates and Damiano Caruso are the two riders who have chances of winning this race besides the Colombian in normal conditions and they will certainly test him again tomorrow because something big may happen. Yates specially, Caruso has been riding a consistent and paced race so far which puts him in a brilliant position which he must already be satisfied with, it's Yates who's really got to make a move. Luckily for him he's not alone, the fight for the 4-9th place seems wide open with several riders struggling bad after the rest day, the final week of an insanely hard race can see huge losses even by the strongest of climbers. João Almeida was the fastest rider up the steep climb yesterday and he will attack for sure again, he looks to be stronger and stronger as the race moves on and in front of him are several riders who've been struggling, we may see Romain Bardet also on the offensive if he has the legs, on the opposite side Hugh Carthy and Alexander Vlasov who came in as winning contenders to the race seem to be struggling lately and will try to keep their 4th and 5th on the GC. Dan Martin is also 10th, although he perhaps even has freedom to go on a break that's unlikely, he looked incredibly good on Sega di Ala and may have a part in the fight for the stage again tomorrow.
As for breakaway possibilities I would say tomorrow isn't the best of days, there's a pan-flat start which is both easy to chase on and easy to put a leash on a break. That is, if there are teams interested... But I think BikeExchange and Deceuninck have a common goal, taking time on the riders ahead and possibly get a stage win, they have the firepower to put on a strong chase so for sure they have reasons to do so. But if they can't keep some strong climbers in the peloton they'll have a hard time bringing them back, there are brilliant climbers with freedom like Antonio Pedrero, Simon Carr or Lorenzo Fortunato, all underspoken riders at current form who can very well win from a break (in Fortunato's case, again).
But obviously the list is bigger, you have Diego Ulissi who did surprisingly good yesterday and surprisingly bad today, by that logic he'll be good tomorrow? Also Davide Formolo, if he has a good day surely he can try something big again tomorrow. There are some more teams with dangerous duos who should be all-in for the stage like Groupama with Rudy Molard and Attila Valter, DSM with Michael Storer and Chris Hamilton, Jumbo who have Koen Bouwman and George Bennett and Trek who now have no contender for the overall and can try again with Vincenzo Nibali and Bauke Mollema to get a win. Some more riders should be in front like Geoffrey Bouchard, Eduardo Sepulveda, Matteo Fabbro or Harm Vanhoucke who also have chances of getting a stage win.
Inside the Bus
This morning we talk to...
#194 Nico Denz - Ok Nico today you had a tilt at the breakaway, your teammates did their job just right but came up a bit short on the win, that's ok. You're not gonna be in contention for any other stage but with Romain 6th on the overall and with the possibility of going up to 4th we need to keep our head in place. You remain road captain, Michael and Chris should have the freedom to fight for the stage whilst you stay in the pack and guide Romain through. I count on you to hang on until the base of the final climb, there go all-out to place him at the head of the peloton and then switch of for the day.
#184 Tanel Kangert - Big day tomorrow, with Nick out of the race you're going to have an even more important role for Simon, but stay calm as you'll only get to work on the final climb, your teammates should take care of things until then. Get behind Mikel when he gets to the front of the group, it'll hurt but stay in the wheel and when he cracks you keep the pace as high as you can, we need to make the first half of the climb as hard as possible, second half it's up to Simon to do his thing.
#185 Cameron Meyer - Ok you heard what I told Tanel? Should be clear what your job is, Michael and Chris will control the break and the stage and you in the meantime get everyone their water and food. They won't be able to stay in the head of the peloton all day so when you arrive at he Passo della Colma you get to the front with Callum and set a rough pace. If there's another team working along you can go all-out in there until you can't, if no-one works keep it more steady, so that you have the legs to push a bit more after the summit, we can't have the climbers hit the front too early.
Prediction Time
⭐ Caruso, Mollema, Carr, Ulissi, Formolo, Molard, Storer, Hamilton, Nibali, Bouchard, Fabbro, Vanhoucke, G.Bennett
I think the GC guys will be the ones fighting for the win tomorrow, and Simon Yates will take the stage, even if he doesn't manage to dislodge Egan Bernal.
Make sure to let me in on your opinion, and of course follow me on twitter for the latest updates!