This stage promised and delivered. With Agnello and Izoard out of the route stage 18 had even more relevance in the fight for the overall and in what can only be called a brutal mountain slog, Jai Hindley took a great stage win after a lot of twists and turns during the stage. The start was hard and fast with a good breakaway letting loose, but Sunweb and Ineos never let the gap grow much as they pushed the peloton to put Almeida under pressure and they did. First Sunweb then Ineos pushed the Stelvio very early on, soon Almeida cracked and after him lots of other GC riders until only Dennis, Hart and Hindley were left in front. The duo of GC riders made it to the finish together, with Bilbao finishing 3rd, Kelderman finished 5th and is now the pink jersey with just 12 seconds over Hindley and 15 over Hart, and Almeida finished 7th.
Positive: Sunweb had some questionable tactics at points but the truth is they've got the stage win and first second, aswell as a very strong team who will now race conservatively, they are in a very good position to win the Giro. Hart putting himself in position to win the race, Bilbao rising to 4th and Fuglsang to 6th overall were also very strong performances.
Negative: Nibali had his day here to turn everything around but just didn't have the legs. Majka and Pozzovivo fell out of the Top10 having had serious trouble in the climbs.
The Route
This should be a transition day, a final opportunity for the sprinters and a chance for the GC riders to recover however it's quite hard to imagine so as there are 252 kilometers on the menu. It's a very flat day luckily, but by no means easy and the sprinters are free to abandon after this day if they want.
The finish, well it's quite weird, the run-up to Asti is quite smooth, lots of roundabouts but no turs, but then inside the final kilometer there's a long chicane to stretch it out right before the finish.
The Weather
The forecast points towards a long grey rainy day across the Po valley. Hard day in the office, the wind won't play a significant part but there should be rain and low temperatures, with this distance it will be far from a "rest" day for the GC men.
The Favourites
Now this day is quite interesting and I'll point out why, but firstly it has to be mentioned the likely and most logic scenario of a bunch sprint. The man to beat is quite obvious, 4-time sprint winner and survivor Arnaud Démare, has been the fastest in all sprints and tomorrow has a stage suited for him. Normaly Groupama will work because they can get another stage and the whole team is focused on that, however... Last year in stage 18 they had Démare in the same position, they chased a breakaway with all they have and then failed in the sprint giving away the jersey to Ackermann. It was one of the biggest flops in any sprint I've ever seen, I'm sure Démare will have that in mind and may not want to work. May also try to send someone in front, there are teams like Bora and Israel at least who would work, this situation, the horrible weather and excruciating distance may make it a breakaway stage at some level.
If it doesn't though Démare will have to battle Peter Sagan who is looking to have a final charge at ciclamino, Sagan has been sharp and has the legs to contest the sprint, then there's the Deceuninck duo Alvaro Hodeg and Davide Ballerini who will also look for an elusive stage, specially now that the team won't have to be leading the bunch all day. The other dangerous duo will be that of Israel with Italian sprinter Davide Cimolai who should be the team's option, with a strong leadout and a fast alternative too in Rick Zabel, in a stage like this it's possible to consider them as serious threats as not all riders fare well with the conditions they'll face tomorrow. The other duo who hasn't been that sharp but always needs to be considered aswell is that of Elia Viviani and Simone Consonni, it's their last chance of the season to make something but unfortunately they carry even more pressure than other sprinters, will take a lucky lucky day to succeed.
There are some more fast men who will fill up the Top10 and maybe fight for a bit more like Ben Swift who's had a very active Giro, Stefano Oldani, Giovanni Lonardi and Albert Torres.
As for breakaway possibilities, Damiano Cima was the rider who took the replica of this stage last year, so luck definetely can play a role. Some big rouleurs and local riders may try their luck like Simon Pellaud/Mattias Bais, Enrico Battaglin, Josef Cerny, Kamil Gradek, Victor Campenaerts/Danilo Wyss, Mikkel Bjerg, Lorenzo Rota, Matteo Sobrero and Filippo Zana. Also for Groupama riders like Scotson and Konovalovas can try to infiltrate breakaways to deorganize everything and dislodge any responsability to other teams.
Prediction Time
⭐ Cimolai, Zabel, Consonni, Oldani, Bjerg, Cerny, Campenaerts
Well, he hasn't failed me in all times I've called him to win so I don't see no reason why I wouldn't do it again. Breakaway win quite possible, but the logic dictates a bunch sprint and Démare won't be easy to beat.
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