The Giro is well and alive! Today was a brutal stage, and it delivered as we've seen Egan Bernal crack under the offensive of Simon Yates which has left everyone with the sense that the race is far from over, and that Bernal is beatable and may suffer this week (just a possibility, of course). Yates attacked on the final kilometers of the climb, several times until Bernal cracked, afterwards arriving with Martinez, loosing 3 seconds to Caruso and 57 to Yates. The stage winner was Daniel Martin who found himself in the breakaway and with an amazing performance on both last climbs managed to hold off the GC guys, led by an incredible João Almeida who did the climb at his own pace and was the fastest on the day from the chasers.
Positive: Martin taking a big win despite the amount of work he did and the chase he had behind, Almeida having his third week started off incredibly, Yates also climbing to the podium and being possibly Bernal's most dangerous competition. In a day many suffered, I can consider Foss aswell a big winner. Ulissi finishing 4th was also incredible.
Negative: Ciccone crashed and had to swap bikes several times, bad day and the biggest looser. Carthy also had a very bad day loosing almost 4 minutes, Vlasov, Formolo, Nibali and Valter between those loosing more than expected, as Evenepoel who crashed too.
The Route
The final opportunity for the sprinters. Wait is it? It's a stage easy to control, 231 kilometers in distance make it the longest ride of the race and most of it is perfectly flat through the Po plain once again (they have been doing this quite a lot haven't they...) until they reach Stradella. Unfortunately, they won't go straight to the finish line...
36.1Km to go - 3.4Km; 4.1%
They will face a sequence of small climbs. None is deadly, but together they will cause some damage in the peloton, this one will see some initial moves and pace setting.
22.5Km to go - 5.3Km; 3.9%
Here you'll start seeing riders dropped, it'll be a longer more constant effort and it resembles Cipressa essentially. Whoever suffers here will be dropped in the next climbs.
Right after that ascent we'll see a very sketchy descent, lots of twisty awkward turns, can turn really dangerous if it rains.
14.3Km to go - 1.4Km; 7.5%
This is the main climb of the day. 1.4Km at 7.5%, starts out steep and finishes steep, in the screenshot you can see halfway up the climb how the road looks and where the riders will finish the climb up there. It's a beautiful one I'll say, but I doubt many will be able to see it with clear vision.
6.2Km to go - 2.6Km; 5.7%
The last ascent isn't a very hard one but it is another nice opportunity to attack the race. Things will be stretched out, puncheurs and secondary climber should succeed if they find a good opportunity as this is a big ring climb and then have a slightly technical descent.
Luckily for those looking for a bunched up finish, the last 3 kilometers are flat and essentially straightforward, it may provide an opportunity for the attackers to be brought back. However, if no-one is in front at this point, the run-up to the line will be constantly attacked.
The Weather
Warm and not windy, a nice change of scenario.
The Favourites
The favourite for the stage is Peter Sagan. Back into strong form, with a convincing win under his belt he's surely the rider who is most likely to win this stage but those chances are always small as it definitely won't be an easy day to control. There's also the points classification that may see Bora ignore the calls to work so as to keep it safe, which may very well be the case. However most of the stage is almost pan-flat, and if there are alliances for sure we can see teams like Israel - of Davide Cimolai and Patrick Bevin - and UAE, who have Fernando Gaviria who's been climbing really well, but also Davide Formolo and Diego Ulissi who can very well attack the climbs who have good reasons to try and keep the race together until the climbs.
There are others however. Cofidis don't really have another chance to take a stage so they may aswell play their cards and provide a possible opportunity for Elia Viviani or his better-climbing teammate Simone Consonni, and other sprinters who can climb like Filippo Fiorelli, Andrea Pasqualon and who knows Matteo Moschetti. Furthermore there are some puncheurs, Andrea Vendrame has taken a stage win already but he does have a chance to do it again tomorrow he should be AG2R's main card, but we have also the likes of Stefano Oldani and Nick Schultz who will love a finale like this.
We have some riders who will be licking their lips specially if there is little control at the start of the stage, that may not be the strongest up those climbs but, as rouleurs, have better chances of sneaking in a breakaway and then having the luck of succeeding. For sure there will be several riders trying as it's nothing but mountains and time-trials from now on. Speaking of time-trials for sure we'll see Remi Cavagna, Edoardo Affini and Nelson Oliveira on the attack, riders who will be favourites for that final stage, you've got some heavy rouleurs in Alexis Gougeard, Dries De Bondt, Simon Pellaud and Nico Denz who can very well find themselves in front, and mixed riders like Luis Leon Sanchez and Nicholas Roche who I also expect to see on the move.
In the field of the puncheurs we may see them more likely to succeed in a peloton scenario with a late attack, however if they find themselves in front they should be the men to beat. You have those that are more punchy and could rely on a sprint like Gianni Vermeersch, Quinten Hermans or Gorka Izagirre, some that can attack but must arrive solo to take a win like Bauke Mollema and Gianluca Brambilla who should have freedom to go on the move, also possibly Mikkel Honoré and who knows, Remco Evenepoel may seize the opportunity if he has the legs. You have some riders that may get freedom to attack, but possibly save the legs so as to work for their leaders like Gianni Moscon, Pello Bilbao and Alberto Bettiol.
Prediction Time
⭐ Bevin, Consonni, Vendrame, Fiorelli, Oldani, Roche, LL.Sanchez, Vermeersch, Hermans, Moscon
Mikkel Honoré is my pick to win. Deceuninck haven't won in a very long time and I really find that strange. They have the quality, and I think they haven't took one because they had GC concerns but they can at this point give freedom to some riders to try. One of them is the Dane who said he was targeting this specific stage, in good form he's a brilliant name and my choice.
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