Ben O'Connor has won stage 17 of this years Giro beating Hermann Pernsteiner and Thomas de Gendt to take an important win for NTT. The stage was marked by a breakaway who got a very sizeable gap and from early on they looked set to discuss the win, after some moves in the penultimate climb it was a small group who went into Madonna di Campiglio where O'Connor distanced the group and came to the finish solo. As for the GC riders it was a calm day, everyone waited for the final climb that unsurprisingly wasn't hard enough to make damage, Sunweb hardened the race and launched a couple of attacks but with no damage made the GC group made it to the finish together.
Positive: NTT taking a big win, Pernsteiner taking a leap in the GC and Deceuninck seemingly controlling the GC group with control, Almeida made it through yet another day and looking more composed.
Negative: Sunweb made the attacks but didn't make the difference. The stage wasn't ridden hard enough for it too... Lost chance by those looking to crack the pink jersey.
The Route
18th stage is for me the queen stage. Of course, this is a Giro with so many very important days that in all honesty it feels bad to call it queen stage but it's where everything is combined to have race-changing gaps. On this day there's 0 room for mistake, riders may loose time on the opening week, it's a necessary sacrifice in order to be at their very best in here, there's 5800 meters of climbing on this day,
Campo Carlo Magno begins the day off climbing, as the rest will be, long, decently steep, this is actually the Madonna di Campiglio climb that's been ridden today but ridden just a little bit further.
One of those climbs that won't get the rate they deserve because it's in such a stage. The Passo Castrin is 8.6Km at 8.9&, very constant and brutal and comes after a long run-up to it. It summits with 142Km to go.
After these climbs there's a long valley run into the base of the Stelvio which will be ridden via it's hardest side of 25Km at over 7%. It's the Stelvio, I wish it doesn't get cut due to weather, it's being ridden by it's most beautiful side and I cannot wait to see the views of the mythical mountain. It summits with 38Km to go and should see decisive attacks in it.
But still after all that there will be a descent into Bormio before the final climb into the Laghi di Cancano, a beautiful climb full of hairpins that will climb a worthy winner on this day, it's not overly hard but any kind of gradient after those set of climbs will be felt.
The Weather
Obviously there's going to be very cold weather atop the Stelvio at the very least, luckily rain/snow don't seem to be on the menu in a cloudy day, as the wind aswell doesn't seem like it will be there.
The Favourites
Now what I have to say is, this Giro is completely out of control, breakaways having crazy winners, stages very good for the GC being ridden conservatively specially in these two stages, I can't say if a breakaway can make it or not because tomorrow is a clear day where the riders fighting for the Giro should fight the stage between each other but then again will it really? Anything can happen, but as it's been from the start I'll go with my gut that yes a stage like this isn't made for a breakaway to get the glory, it's designed for an epic battle.
But of course.. I have to mention breakaway contenders and I won't enlargen this paragraph a lot because yes it's always the same, very few riders can win a stage like this from the break too. Castroviejo, Guerreiro and Kangert I reckon may be the only ones, I'm sure I'll be proven wrong and they won't even be in the break and someone who disapointed today will win now that I've written this though eheh!
And regarding the GC fight it's all very simple, riders who have to ride conservatively:
João Almeida
Riders who have to attack:
Everyone else
It really is this clear. Almeida has done an incredible Giro in every level, this final week he hasn't been tested that much, the third week is an unknown for him, and the Stelvio is 700 meters higher than any climb he can find in Continental Portugal. It's a multi-mountain day and if he is to be tested other teams have to push hard every single climb, and the Stelvio has to be attacked. He has been flawless so far but he is probably afraid of the Alpine run of tomorrow. But the responsability isn't in him, not at all, the responsability and pressure is on everyone else to make the difference.
Kelderman and Sunweb won't do anything crazy, but have to make the race hard in the climbs and hope Almeida falters. Nibali, well he doesn't have much team left, but he is the rider with the most responsability to attack the Stelvio. Everyone else I just see following wheels, maybe Tao Hart can do something big still if he carries the same legs he had in Piancavallo onto the thin air, riders like Pozzovivo, Fuglsang, Majka can stick to the wheels of course but they didn't come to the race to finish in the places they currently are, they will ambition more.
That's what I have to say for today, with Agnello cancelled tomorrow must be an epic mountain stage worthy of the Giro, as a Portuguese I'm naturally biased but above all what I want is spectacle, no matter who wins.
Prediction Time
⭐ Pozzovivo, Majka, Fuglsang, Guerreiro, Castroviejo
My call for the win is Nibali. Think 2016, he won the race with a couple of massive mountain raids. This year I called him for the win before the start because of this brutal final week, wether he'll win or not I don't know, but he will try, and he's got nothing to loose!
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