The stage ended with a surprise win by Jan Tratnik. After a massive 28-rider breakaway got off early in the day it was clear the break would take it, however it wasn't decided in the climbs but rather in an early attack Tratnik went away with Boaro, then went solo throughout the climbs and was caught in the summit of the last by O'Connor, but later managed to attack him in the final climb to take the win. O'Connor and Battaglin rounded up the podium whilst the GC riders had a calm day with no attacks until Almeida himself moved in the final ramp and took a couple of seconds on his rivals.
Positive: Bahrain taking a surprise win and Almeida had a good day overall, not having been attacked but not being afraid to attack, those seconds will not be meaningful in the future of the race but he must've gained some important confidence with this attack.
Negative: Fabbro, Guerreiro, Visconti were the big contenders from the break but weren't even in contention. Some great quality in the break in such a hard stage it's surprising that it was decided between ascents.
The Route
Stage 17 is a brutal Alpine day, the first of 3 with several hard climbs, here the damage should be done on the final ascent to Madonna di Campiglio but for sure most will get there with a lot of fatigue after having to climb the brutal Forcella Valbona and Monte Bondone, and also the Passo Durone. There's over 5600 meters of climbing on this day, with such a hard day in 24 hours it's unsure how open to risks the GC riders will be, but the truth is it's an unreal day after 3 weeks of non-stop hard racing.
Valbona is a massive climb, no words needed. It summits with 142Km to go.
Monte Bondone is not a very used climb in the Giro but it's one of the most iconic climbs of the Alps, next to Trento, it's another 20Km+ mountain with rough gradients, that make this day so hard, it still comes quite far from the finish (86Km to go) but the everyone will feel this one aswell on the end of the day.
In comparison with the previous ones this barely looks like a mountain but it is, Passo Durone will summit with 38Km to go, a 10Km climb at 6% gradient to inflict further damage into everyone, setting things up for the final climb.
Which is the Madonna di Campiglio. It isn't a brutal climb like the first two, 12.5Km at 5.7%, very constant during most of it, everyone will be smashed at the base and attacks can easily make damage in here, plus the gradients aren't very high so alliances can really make gaps expand well here.
The Weather
Very cold temperatures at the end is the main thing to mention and everyone has to take maximum precaution not to get sick with the cold descents ahead. Wind will be weak but gusts may be strong in higher points, from the south, would mean a tailwind in the final climb but I wouldn't expect it.
The Favourites
The final three days of mountains are here (with a massive pilgrimage across Piemonte in the middle). Until now big gaps were made, but ever since the start it was always about this final week, on each of these days the seconds won't just be seconds but rather minutes and this one may be considered the "easier" of the treble.
So let's get onto it straight away, breakaway? Well I had a good idea that it would be however today the peloton took it quite easy compared to what it could've, the climbers will still be relatively fresh, some riders will be looking to start making time on Almeida and possibly Kelderman. This is a big ask I'm aware, in Piancavallo they looked superb, but others will want to win the race specially Nibali who saw his initial 3 rivals all abandon, he has maybe his last chance to win a Grand Tour and he will want to take it despite having a reduced team with him. Nibali and Fuglsang are both in this situation where both lost their main domestiques, they don't have much team that can help them in strategical attacks and may rely a bit on each other that is if Fuglsang has great legs which in mountain slogs doesn't happen often. The stage has a summit finish so alliances won't yet be crucial but he may find allies of occasion like Pozzovivo and Tao Hart which if everything goes normal should give a go and try to get onto the podium.
It raises the question then on how Sunweb will race. They have been saving themselves quite a bit and seeing how they raced in stage 15 I think they will try to get on pink tomorrow. Hamilton and Oomen specially will help out the podium contender Jai Hindley and Wilco Kelderman. For tomorrow I think Hindley will be all-in for Kelderman still, Almeida is still a very big threat and hasn't showed any weakness so far, and with Masnada and Knox looking so good Deceuninck are looking very good to protect what's theirs and the less steep climb goes right into Almeida and Masnada's skillset. Then there's Bilbao and the Bora riders who I'm unsure what to expect, they'll try to hang on as best they can, maybe be part of a big move, but unsure as to wether they can hold it, Majka specially rode very strong in the time-trial but then lost time in Piancavallo which was completely the opposite.
As for breakaway chances they exist, they aren't bad, but damn if yesterday I already said I was repeating the names then what to say today... Guerreiro was strong today but then ignored the fight for the stage win and further points which I didn't understand but I believe he'll go for points again tomorrow with Visconti, Tanel Kangert, Attila Valter, Ilnur Zakarin, Mark Padun, Domen Novak, Jonathan Castroviejo, Harm Vanhoucke,
Prediction Time
⭐ Majka, Pozzovivo, Fuglsang, Visconti, Valter, Zakarin, Novak, Vanhoucke
I sense a second stage win for Tao Hart. This Giro has been weird in every sense, breakaways having shocking winners, climbs having had surprise winners aswell and a completely unexpected GC fight and contenders. In the middle of confusion trust those you don't ordinarily think of.
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